There are 20 days left until the election.

The official election campaign started on the same day.

Candidates are fighting to win even one more vote.



20 days is a short period of time, considering that the presidential election has been going on for over half a year, from the intra-party primary to the official election campaign period.

It may seem like a lot has already been decided.



However, 20 days in the election space is also quite a long time.

You never know what variables will appear and what effect they will have.

Politics is a living thing.



Today's fact check <Actually> is going to look at the volatility of the period of '20 days' from the perspective of the election through data. 




In 20 days, can a lot really change?



Without going too far, I checked past presidential election data.

The last presidential election was on May 9, 2017.

We compared the final votes of the candidates with seven polls released on April 19 and 20 of that year, exactly 20 days ago.




At the time of his election as president, Moon Jae-in of the Democratic Party of Korea received 41.08 percent of the vote.

Based on the seven polls released 20 days ago, the approval rating was in the low 40%.

The approval rate of the opinion poll 20 days ago and the final vote rate were similar.



However, the other candidates showed significant differences outside the margin of error.

In particular, the volatility of candidate Hong Jun-pyo of the Liberty Korea Party and Ahn Cheol-soo of the People's Party at that time was very high.

Twenty days before the election, Candidate Hong received around 10% and Ahn in the low 30%.

However, the final voter turnout was 24.03% for Hong and 21.41% for Ahn.

Candidate Hong's percentage of votes surpassed that of Candidate Ahn.



At that time, candidate Ahn was symbolized as an anti-Moonlight alternative force, and it was read as having absorbed the existing conservative supporters and the anti-Moonist supporters inside the Democratic Party.

However, as the election neared, the conservatives began to disperse, and it was evaluated that candidate Hong took a significant part of it.



In other words, the peak of Candidate Ahn's upward trend, the dispersion of the conservatives, the reunification of the dispersed conservatives using Candidate Hong as a lever, and finally Hong's reversal, this exhausting process took place within a short period of only 20 days.



At that time, Bareun Party candidate Yoo Seung-min and Justice Party candidate Shim Sang-jeong also got a higher final vote rate of 6% compared to 20 days ago in the poll.



So, what will happen in this presidential election?

If you just look at the polls so far, you can see the steep volatility in approval ratings.



In fact, there are so many people who don't believe the polls.

While contemplating which number to use as a standard, the SBS Fact-Eun Team is trying to utilize the 'Meta S In-depth Public Opinion Index' recently released by the SBS Election Team. 



Meta S In-depth Public Opinion Index Homepage https://poliscore.sbsnews.co.kr


At the end of last year, within the People's Power, a conflict between Candidate Yoon Seok-yeol and Party leader Lee Jun-seok came to the fore.

The inner red is reflected in the meta-S index as it is.

Candidate Yoon's approval rating showed a downward trend.



Finally, on December 14, the intersection between Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung and People's Strength candidate Yoon Seok-yeol appears based on the Meta S index. 



Since we are analyzing the 20-day interval as a standard, let’s take a look at the Meta S index on January 3, just 20 days later.

This was the period when the gap between the two candidates was the widest, with Lee 38.7% and Yoon 30.7%.

After that, Candidate Yoon and CEO Jun-seok Lee joined hands at the National Assembly General Assembly.

After a dramatic reconciliation, Yun's approval ratings turn upward. 



We will also look at the Meta S index for January 23, 20, and after January 3, as well.

Candidate Lee is 35.4% and Candidate Yoon is 36.6%.

Accidentally, the intersection again appeared. 



In the end, Candidate Yoon's approval rating, which had been on the rise, fell on the 20th, and on another 20th, Yoon's approval rating rose again.

Now, the two candidates are fighting within the margin of error.



Within 20 days, both candidates tasted heaven and hell.

It was analyzed that the benefit of Yoon's lowered approval rating was taken by Ahn Cheol-soo of the People's Party. 



I am not trying to attach any meaning to the number 20.

However, there are many precedents in which the tendency has changed within the short period of 20 days until the presidential election, which means that there is a sufficient possibility in the future.

The two candidates who are in a fierce battle now, the competition is inevitably overheated, and the possibility of natural variables cannot be ignored.

Still, this election has been called the worst 'unfavorable presidential election' and 'muddy presidential election' in history.



The SBS Facts team is aiming for fact-checking that goes beyond simply determining facts and lies, and unraveling the various layers of the world we live in.

You can request a fact check verification by typing SBS facts on the Internet.

If you request it, we will fact-check it to the best of our ability.



(Interns: Kwon Min-sun, Song Hae-yeon)