This Wednesday evening, Emmanuel Macron brings together a mini-summit of several African and European leaders to take stock of Operation Barkhane.
On this occasion, the President of the French Republic should officially put an end to the French military system in the Sahel, launched within the framework of the fight against terrorism.
Between the rise of terrorism and the military putsch, a return to what can also be called “the fiasco operation”.
The official announcement should be soon.
Nine years after the start in 2013 of Operation Serval, which became Operation Barkhane the following year, should begin to decline this Wednesday.
Emmanuel Macron brings together in the evening in Paris, the heads of state of Sahelian countries (Niger, Chad and Mauritania) and those of several West African countries.
Objective: to announce a withdrawal from Mali of the French forces "Barkhane" on the sidelines of a European Union - African Union summit scheduled for Brussels tomorrow.
Between the rise of terrorism and the military putsch, a return to what can also be called the “fiasco operation”.
The return of the jihadists
Launched on August 1, 2014, Operation Barkhane was initially intended to fight against the rise of jihadism in the countries of the Sahelo-Saharan strip: Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad and Burkina Faso.
"Originally, the operation was a success, the towns of northern Mali were liberated and the major jihadist bases defeated," recalls Michel Goya, a former naval officer and historian.
This is the second part of the plan that never came to fruition.
“The operation was then to allow the Malian military forces to maintain pressure on these jihadist groups.
This never happened, ”adds the soldier.
For Amzat Boukari-Yabara, a historian specializing in the African continent, three reasons explain this failure: “Firstly, space is huge, almost as big as the European Union and therefore very difficult to cover.
Second, African armies have not been formed, trained and equipped enough to take control of operations.
Finally, France and Westerners in general would not have succeeded in "tracing back to the source of the financing of terrorist groups".
Result: a mass return of jihadists to the territory but also the appearance of new terrorist groups.
“Jihadism has clearly spread.
The appearance of the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara or the Massina Liberation Front in central Mali are proof of this,” explains Michel Goya.
Having relocated to most rural areas, terrorist groups have regained power in the country.
“Today 75% of the Malian territory escapes the authority of Bamako”, concludes the former officer of the navy troops.
Takeover of the “junta”
After overthrowing the Malian government in 2020, Colonel Assimi Goïta became the country's president following a second putsch last May.
Enjoying wide popularity in Bamako, this junta (a group of high-ranking soldiers who seize political power) does not seem to fear the withdrawal of French troops from Mali.
Even more, she wants him gone.
“The Malian junta plays a lot on the sovereignist fiber to legitimize its power and considers the French intervention relatively ineffective.
It quickly found itself in opposition to France but became very popular with Malians at the same time”, analyzes Michel Goya.
For Amzat Boukari-Yabara, however, it is important to moderate the use of the term “junta”, to better understand its contours: “The junta is made up of soldiers, its leader, Assimi Goita, is indeed a colonel.
But also civilians, as is the case of its prime minister Choguel Maïga.
According to the historian, this is what makes the strength, the popularity and the potential durability of the power in place.
“The junta, as it is called, is quite democratic.
It has set up national meetings, a kind of general assembly, to allow civil society to express itself on the transitions necessary for the country,” he explains.
What next for Mali?
According to Amzat Boukari-Yabara, Mali can get by, despite the end of Operation Barkhane, "the country is starting diplomatic work with new partners like Russia".
Indeed, although being widely controversial, Mali welcomes within it the “Wagner” group, a Russian private security entity.
That is about a thousand mercenaries, according to the French authorities, who would aim to protect the junta in power in Bamako.
Our file on Mali
On a more military level, for Michel Goya: “the great unknown: it is the sky”.
For the former officer, the
question of the airspace will be to be asked in the coming months: “It is important to determine if we will still be able to fly over the country and thus continue to come to the aid of the Malian forces.
“Questions that may find an answer this evening during the mini-summit commissioned by our Chief of the Armed Forces.
But one thing is certain, after nine years of presence, the longest French presence abroad after Afghanistan, the end seems near for Operation Barkhane.
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Mali: Emmanuel Macron organizes a mini-summit to discuss the military presence in the Sahel
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