Security guarantees and the Ukrainian question: what topics will Putin and Scholz discuss in Moscow

On Tuesday, February 15, Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold talks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Moscow.

This was reported by the press service of the Kremlin.

“It is planned to discuss current topics on the bilateral and international agenda, including issues related to the provision of long-term, legally fixed guarantees of the security of the Russian Federation and the settlement of the intra-Ukrainian conflict,” the message says.

As the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov clarified on the eve of the meeting, in addition to these aspects, the negotiations will also touch upon the issue of Nord Stream 2.

In addition, he stressed that all these topics are on the “high-priority agenda”.

Peskov also said that following the meeting, the Russian and German leaders would hold a joint press conference.

“He (Scholz.

) will have a conversation with Putin, also a working breakfast, and they will hold a joint press conference,” he said.

Recall that this is the first talks in Moscow between the President of Russia and the new Chancellor of Germany, who replaced Angela Merkel in this post.

Before that, Vladimir Putin spoke with his German counterpart only by phone on December 21, 2021.

Then the President of Russia congratulated Scholz on starting work as Chancellor.

Both sides expressed interest "in the further development of Russian-German relations and maintaining contacts through various channels," the Kremlin press service reported.

As Vladimir Shapovalov, deputy director of the Institute of History and Politics at Moscow State Pedagogical University, noted in an interview with RT, Vladimir Putin's upcoming meeting with Olaf Scholz "will be extremely important."

“This is the first face-to-face talks between the President of Russia and the Chancellor of Germany.

Germany is a key EU country and an important partner of the Russian Federation.

The two states have close economic, political and cultural ties, a common historical past.

Despite the fact that Germany is part of NATO and is included in the sanctions policy against the Russian Federation, Moscow and Berlin very often find common ground and interaction,” Shapovalov said.

In turn, Alexander Kamkin, a leading researcher at the Center for German Studies at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said in an interview with RT that the upcoming talks between Putin and Scholz are important now, first of all, in the context of the current political situation.

• Flags of Russia and Germany

• RIA News

• © Alexey Vitvitsky

“On many key issues, Russia and the West come to a standstill because of the irreconcilable positions of the parties.

Against this background, Russian-German relations are not going through the best of times, they are in a protracted crisis.

Under such conditions, one cannot expect any breakthrough solutions, but one can hope for a consensus,” the analyst believes.

“Moscow is not satisfied with halftones”

According to experts, for Moscow, the key topic of negotiations will be issues related to the provision of long-term and legally fixed guarantees of Russia's security.

Recall that on December 17, 2021, the Russian Foreign Ministry published drafts of an agreement with Washington and an agreement with NATO.

These documents deal, in particular, with mutual security guarantees in Europe and the refusal to further expand the North Atlantic Alliance, including at the expense of the former republics of the Soviet Union, including Ukraine.

A few days after the publication of these documents, the President of Russia, during a telephone conversation with Olaf Scholz, informed him of Moscow's proposals for security guarantees, excluding not only the expansion of NATO, but also the deployment of strike weapons systems in countries neighboring the Russian Federation.

This was reported by the press service of the Kremlin.

The statement also said that Moscow had given "detailed comments" on the content of the draft treaties between Russia and the United States and NATO, and expressed the hope that "serious negotiations on all the issues raised by the Russian side" would be organized.

After a series of discussions of these proposals in January at Moscow's talks with Washington in Geneva, as well as with NATO in Brussels and within the framework of the OSCE, the US and the bloc handed over their written responses to Russia's initiatives.

However, as Vladimir Putin emphasized, "fundamental Russian concerns were ignored."

In turn, the press secretary of the Russian president told RIA Novosti on February 14 that Moscow had not received "direct answers" from the United States and NATO to its proposals.

At the same time, according to him, an attempt by the West to “avoid any understanding” of problems that are critical for the Russian side is recorded.

Dmitry Peskov stressed that Moscow would not allow the West to transfer the dialogue on this topic into a regime of multi-year negotiations, “which will be conducted in parallel with the concrete actions of the NATO countries and the United States to arm Ukraine”, to draw this country into the military infrastructure of the alliance and “to gradually absorb Ukraine from the side of the block.

On the same day, after negotiations with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Olaf Scholz said that the West was ready for a serious dialogue with Russia on European security issues.

He also noted that the topic of Ukraine's membership in any alliances "is practically not on the agenda."

According to him, in this regard, it is strange that Moscow makes this issue the subject of a "serious foreign policy problem."

At the same time, the German chancellor stressed that the freedom to choose alliances should not be discussed, just as, in his opinion, there can be no spheres of interest in Europe.

At the same time, he urged to take into account the existing reality.

Earlier in an interview with CNN, Scholz said that transatlantic cooperation is key to peace in Europe "and Putin needs to understand that he cannot split the European Union or NATO."

“We will act together,” the German Chancellor assured.

"The transatlantic partnership is key for peace in Europe and this is what Putin also has to understand, that he will not be able to split the European Union or to split NATO. We will act together," says German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on the threat of Russia invading Ukraine.

pic.twitter.com/9T2qtNhGUE

— The Lead CNN (@TheLeadCNN) February 7, 2022

According to Alexander Kamkin, at a time when NATO is purposefully strengthening its position at the Russian borders, the issue of security guarantees for the Russian Federation is the most relevant in the upcoming talks between Putin and Scholz.

“The advance of NATO troops even closer to the borders of the Russian Federation inspires serious concern and violates the spirit of the demilitarization of Europe, which the EU has apparently forgotten about.

Nevertheless, at least a minimum consensus on this issue is urgently needed, which is what the parties will strive for.

Negotiations within the framework of this track will be difficult, ”the expert believes.

• Symbols of NATO

• AFP

• © Kenzo TRIBOUILLARD

In turn, Vladimir Shapovalov said that Moscow still hopes that Berlin will be the conductor of "not a frantic policy of the West, but a policy based on building a constructive dialogue with Russia."

“Germany, as an important member of NATO, could influence its partners in the bloc, who, judging by their actions, are set to conflict with Russia.

Moscow is not satisfied with semitones and reticences in matters of security guarantees, they need to be clearly fixed.

Only thanks to this can a détente be achieved, which is in the interests of Germany, located in the center of Europe, ”the analyst emphasized.

"Contradicts the logic of political dialogue"

However, according to experts, despite Moscow's desire to focus on issues related to security guarantees, the German side will be more interested in discussing the Ukrainian issue.

Recall that Western countries, including Germany, accuse Russia of plans to "invade" Ukraine.

So, the German Chancellor wrote on his Twitter on February 14 before a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that he would continue negotiations in Moscow and Kiev “on the still very serious situation” on the Ukrainian border.

“In Kiev, it is important for me to express our unwavering solidarity and support for Ukraine,” he said.

Auf dem Weg in die #Ukraine.

Heute in Kiew und morgen in Moskau werde ich unsere Gespräche zur weiterhin sehr ernsten Lage an der Grenze der Ukraine fortführen.

In Kiew ist mir wichtig, der Ukraine unsere fortdauernde Solidarität und Unterstützung auszudrücken.

(1/2) pic.twitter.com/OjpKU4g490

— Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz (@Bundeskanzler) February 14, 2022

He also said that he urgently expects "signs of de-escalation" from Moscow.

“Further military aggression would have very serious consequences for Russia.

In this I absolutely agree with our allies.

We are seeing a very, very serious threat to peace in Europe,” he stressed.

Von Moskau erwarten wir dringend Zeichen der Deeskalation.

Eine weitere militärische Aggression hätte sehr schwerwiegende Konsequenzen für Russland.

Darin bin ich mir mit unseren Verbündeten absolut einig.

Wir erleben eine sehr, sehr ernste Bedrohung des Friedens in Europa.

(2/2)

— Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz (@Bundeskanzler) February 14, 2022

Then, after the negotiations, during a joint press conference with Zelensky, Scholz said that “further military aggression against Ukraine” would have serious political, economic and geostrategic consequences for Russia.

According to the German Chancellor, he will voice this in Moscow as well.

At the same time, Scholz noted that now we are talking about preventing an aggravation of the situation.

As he said, we need to strive to de-escalate the situation.

Scholz previously wrote on his Twitter that Germany "stands shoulder to shoulder with its allies, especially the United States" in matters relating to Russia or Ukraine.

“We are ready to take all necessary steps together.

In this case, there is no disagreement,” he said.

Everyone can be absolutely sure that Germany stands side by side with its allies and especially the United States when it comes to Russia and the Ukraine.

We are prepared to take all necessary steps together.

There is no disagreement in this situation.

https://t.co/KMsOxCcmuf

— Olaf Scholz (@OlafScholz) February 8, 2022

Moscow has repeatedly rejected Western accusations of plans to "invade" Ukraine, emphasizing that the United States and its allies launched a propaganda campaign about "Russian aggression" against the Ukrainian side, pursuing purely provocative goals.

Meanwhile, earlier Putin and Scholz already touched upon the Ukrainian issue at the request of the German chancellor during telephone conversations on December 21, 2021.

Then the press service of the Kremlin reported that "the problem of settling the intra-Ukrainian conflict" was "examined in detail."

“Vladimir Putin informed in detail about the state of affairs in this area, noting, in particular, that Kiev still stubbornly evades fulfilling its obligations under the Minsk agreements of 2015, which, in fact, hinders the possible holding of a new summit in the Normandy format” , — noted in the Kremlin.

According to Vladimir Shapovalov, Berlin, which is a member of the Normandy format along with Paris, Moscow and Kiev, can find arguments to convince the Ukrainian side to comply with the Minsk agreements, "although there is less and less hope for this."

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz with President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky during a joint press conference, February 14, 2022

• AFP

• © SERGEI SUPINSKY

“This is what Putin and Scholz can talk about in Moscow.

But here it must be borne in mind that the possibilities of the new German chancellor in the conditions of the internal political situation in Germany are very limited.

The current German coalition government is rather loose, holding ambiguous positions on foreign policy issues.

In addition, the United States and Ukraine are putting pressure on Stolz, ”the expert said.

As Alexander Kamkin, in turn, noted, at the upcoming meeting with the German chancellor, the Russian leader will try to convey to him Moscow's position on the hype of the West around the notorious "attack" on Ukraine.

“It is still difficult to say how Scholz will be able to negotiate and whether he will hear his colleague.

But it is already clear that the collective position of the West that Russia is supposedly going to be in Kiev soon is absolutely counterproductive and completely contradicts the logic of political dialogue.

But, unfortunately, these are the realities,” the analyst said.

Economic interest

Another announced topic on the agenda of negotiations between Vladimir Putin and Olaf Scholz is Nord Stream 2.

Recall that against the backdrop of accusations against Russia about the “invasion”, Germany does not exclude that they may impose sanctions against the gas pipeline, which has already been fully completed, but has not yet been put into operation.

Thus, German Foreign Minister Annalena Burbock said at the end of January that Berlin was ready to introduce such restrictions if the Russian Federation “attacked” Ukraine.

“In the event of a resumption of aggression, we have a wide range of responses at our disposal, including Nord Stream 2,” she said, speaking in the Bundestag.

Scholz himself later, in an interview with The Washington Post, commenting on the possible imposition of sanctions by the United States against Nord Stream 2, pointed to the need for "strategic ambiguity."

As Alexander Kamkin noted, Nord Stream 2 is an infrastructure and strategic project for Germany and Europe in general.

“But due to the current political situation in the West, negotiations between Berlin and Moscow regarding this gas pipeline will be difficult.

Especially in the context of the fact that, at the suggestion of American partners, the political class in Germany repeats, following Washington, the thesis that Nord Stream 2 should be closed if there is an imaginary and mystical “invasion” of Ukraine, ”the expert believes.

Kamkin also stressed that this pipeline is a "survival tool for Europe" in a rather difficult economic and energy situation in the EU.

“Under such circumstances, abandoning Nord Stream 2 is extremely counterproductive for Europeans.

At the upcoming talks, Vladimir Putin will probably try to explain this to his German counterpart, but how common sense will prevail is not yet clear,” the analyst said.

Vladimir Shapovalov believes that Nord Stream 2 is a project that can only strengthen economic cooperation between Moscow and Berlin.

“All the same, those alleged difficulties that are the result of pressure from the United States can be eliminated if the German side wishes, and the pipeline will start working.

Germany is more interested in the operation of Nord Stream 2 than Russia, since the Russian Federation will always find an opportunity to sell its gas on the foreign market, but to whom and at what price it will be sold depends on the position that Germany takes, ”the expert said. .

• Kremlin

• globallookpress.com

• © Bai Xueqi/XinHua

As Shapovalov noted, Moscow expects that the upcoming talks between Putin and Scholz "will add confidence to the German chancellor that Germany needs and has no alternative to implement the project as soon as possible."

“The question is whether it will be possible to convince Scholz of the need to take a more active position in defending the economic interests of Germany,” the analyst said.

At the same time, Shapovalov believes that, in general, the upcoming meeting between the Russian leader and his German counterpart is important not only in terms of building a strategy for bilateral relations between Russia and Germany, but also European security policy.

“Moscow expects that the rational principle will prevail in future negotiations.

And despite the fact that the overall foreign policy situation is developing unfavorably due to the actions of the West, relations between Berlin and Moscow will be strengthened.

The business of the two countries is closely connected, and economic interests should not suffer from the geopolitical ambitions of Washington, ”the expert concluded.