NATO Secretary General: Cautious optimism but no change on the ground

There is reason for "cautious optimism" - as Jens Stoltenberg commented on Tuesday on the "signs from Moscow that diplomacy should continue".

The NATO Secretary General was referring to statements by the Russian Foreign and Defense Minister the previous day and the statement by the Defense Ministry that units of the western and southern military districts had completed their exercises, loaded their equipment onto trains and tractors for return transport and were returning to their bases .

Of course, NATO had no signs of this, as Stoltenberg added in the next sentence: "But so far we haven't seen any signs of a de-escalation on the ground." That described the tense situation,

Thomas Gutschker

Political correspondent for the European Union, NATO and the Benelux countries based in Brussels.

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When asked, Stoltenberg explained what the alliance expects from Moscow: "We have to see a significant and permanent withdrawal of troops and, last but not least, equipment." The Norwegian recalled last spring, when Russia had tens of thousands of troops in the south and east of Ukraine had contracted.

"They go in with heavy equipment and troops, pull out a few soldiers and then after a few days you can just bring them back in with little warning."

At that time, the soldiers of the 41st Combined Arms Army had returned to their bases in Siberia, while all their equipment remained at a military training area near Voronezh, 300 kilometers northeast of Ukraine.

The Russian Ministry of Defense justified this with the large Zapad autumn maneuvers in the region.

In fact, these tanks, howitzers and rocket launchers were not used at all.

Instead, starting in October, they were transferred to Elnya, further west towards the Belarusian border.

In the past two weeks, this device has been moved via Bryansk to the Klintsy area – right on the border with Ukraine and on a strategic axis to Kiev.

That was an indicator of the preparation of an invasion.

In the past few days, the opposite of a de-escalation has been observed, Stoltenberg said, alluding to: "a continued military build-up with more troops, more battalion battle groups, more high-value capabilities, artillery, anti-aircraft defenses, ballistic missiles and many support elements that allow Russia to get into the Invade Ukraine, with a full-scale invasion or limited incursion, and with almost no warning."

We'll see if anything changes.

The American ambassador to NATO, Julianne Smith, referred to the week before the New Year, when the Russian Ministry of Defense had already reported a withdrawal of units.

"When we looked at it, we didn't find any evidence of it," Smith said.

Instead, the Russians have since accelerated their deployment.

Although at the time soldiers from some units were allowed to return to their families for the Orthodox Christmas, they returned afterwards.

Their gear stayed put.

The challenge for an army is not the transport of soldiers, but the relocation of heavy equipment and the construction of a supply infrastructure.

The NATO defense ministers will discuss the current situation in Brussels, in particular the medium-term reinforcement of the south-eastern flank.

It is about the establishment of other so-called battle groups, which have existed in Poland and the three Baltic states since 2017 - at that time a reaction to the annexation of Crimea.

France has agreed to lead such a reinforced battalion with more than a thousand soldiers in Romania.

Reinforcements are also being considered in Slovakia and Hungary, both of which also border Ukraine, as well as in Bulgaria.

It is firmly expected that the ministers will give the military a planning order on Wednesday;

A decision on stationing would then be made in the spring.

Irrespective of this, since the end of January many member states have decided to expand their presence in the Baltic and Black Sea region in the short term in response to the continued Russian build-up.

The Bundeswehr is also sending additional soldiers to Lithuania.

According to the Alliance, these reinforcements are within the framework of the NATO-Russia Founding Act, in which the Alliance committed in 1997 not to station "permanently" any "substantial" combat troops on the territory of the former Warsaw Pact.

However, what is meant by substantial and enduring has never been defined;

there are different readings on both sides.

"A Russian invasion of Ukraine will be a blatant violation of the NATO-Russia Founding Act," Stoltenberg said on Tuesday, as was the annexation of Crimea.