Once again, Aqila Saleh, the speaker of the Libyan parliament, put the country back to square zero.

In 2014, "Saleh" had just reached the presidency of the Libyan parliament, but after several months in office, the highest constitutional authority decided to invalidate the elections in exchange for extending the work of the National Congress that emerged from the revolution that toppled Gaddafi.

The man refused the decision, causing the division of Libya between two conflicting governments, one in the east and the other in the west, and the old man was not satisfied with what the country had become, and then rejected the Skhirat Agreement, the most important political consensus in the history of the crisis sponsored by the United Nations, then Then the Libyan General Khalifa Haftar granted the legitimacy to overthrow the Libyan capital, Tripoli, by force.

Aqila Saleh

Haftar’s defeats negatively impacted Aqila Saleh after Abdel Hamid Dabaiba came to head a transitional government whose head was himself on the terrorism list issued by the Libyan parliament in 2017, and after the failure to hold the presidential elections, which witnessed battles and arguments between Dabaiba and Saleh, the latter moved quickly to isolate the prime minister, and appoint A new transitional government headed by Fathi Bashagha, Saleh's old and only enemy, and one of the few who possesses political and military influence in Tripoli can match the influence of forces loyal to Dabaiba.

While Libya is heading towards the specter of the old division with the return of two separate governments, the inability of the United Nations to reach a political solution to end the state of the conflict inside Libya is clear to all. Will the new alliances be able to change the map of the conflict in Libya and impose a new political reality in the country?

Alliance after feud

In November of last year 2021, the plane of Fathi Bashagha, the former Minister of Interior of the Government of National Accord, landed at Cairo Airport.

The Libyan official came to the country of General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to visit the headquarters of the Egyptian General Intelligence, which until recently was one of the strongholds that provided support to Haftar during his military campaign on Tripoli.

At the time, Bashagha was one of the most important leaders who managed the battles on the other front, as one of the most important men of the Government of National Accord (led by Fayez al-Sarraj) before its dissolution, and the godfather of the Turkish-Libyan agreement that changed the map of the conflict.

While there were no reliable sources about the objectives of that visit, or what took place in it, the subsequent days soon revealed a party of its results, after Haftar and Pashaga met face to face for the first time on a visit to the Libyan east, so that the duo then formed the "enemies of yesterday" alliance that returned All the old faces are on the scene again.

🔵#photos|

The meeting of the presidential candidates, including "Fatehi Bashagha", "Ahmed Maiteeq" and "Abdul-Majid Saif al-Nasr" with Khalifa Haftar in Benghazi.


#Libya_Mubasher 🇱🇾 pic.twitter.com/kIkGdppgCB

— Libya Mubasher (@libya_mubasher) December 21, 2021

The change of the map of alliances and enmities in Libya actually began in late 2020, following the resignation of Fayez Al-Sarraj as prime minister, and the intervention of the United Nations through the “Geneva talks” and “Bouznika talks” with the aim of reshaping the political scene and choosing a temporary executive authority.

Among the four lists that were officially nominated, a specific list was crowded with all the enemies of the recent past, led by the godfather of the Tripoli war, Aqila Saleh, who granted Haftar constitutional legitimacy for his battles, and the strong man in the capital and the mastermind of the Government of National Accord, Fathi Bashagha, along with Lieutenant-General Osama Al-Juwaili, Haftar’s enemy, And the maker of Al-Wefaq victories in the battles of the Libyan West.

Despite the weight of the list, and the great hopes placed on it, all the arrangements made by the Libyan war parties to remain in the scene by running in one list failed, and the members of the National Forum, which represented all Libyan soil, decided to empty the new political scene of all the old faces, and replace them with new ones that do not enjoy those The powerful political and military force, which has always been one of the reasons for the continuation of the political division and the military conflict that Libya witnessed before reaching the final ceasefire decision between East and West.

The rise of Abdel Hamid al-Dabaiba to the presidency of the government, and Muhammad al-Manfi to the presidency of the Political Council, formally paved the way for the exclusion of the old faces. Also, Aqila Saleh is threatened with leaving the entire political scene, following the attempts of deputies to unite the divided parliament between East and West, and to overthrow it in a quorum session, but he was able to retain his position to lead a counter-war against the transitional government, which began to unilaterally with the presidential election law without agreement with the Council. The Supreme State, who was also fighting the same war with the aim of preventing influential figures in the east from running for elections.

Fathi Bashagha (Reuters)

Meanwhile, Fathi Bashagha visited Cairo again, in an unannounced visit, during which he met the Director of Egyptian Intelligence, Major General Abbas Kamel.

And according to what was reported by Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, the guest pledged to abide by Egypt’s interests in exchange for providing him with the necessary support during his upcoming mission, which was clear to everyone, in light of the Libyan Parliament’s moves to isolate Dabaiba, after withdrawing confidence from him a hundred days before the election date, claiming the failure of his government. In the tasks entrusted to it to fight corruption and unify state institutions, especially the army.

Leaks that dealt with Egyptian arrangements to pave the way for Fathi Bashagha’s arrival in the government are consistent with the Egyptian Foreign Ministry’s hurry to grant him official recognition even before he obtained confidence from the Supreme Council of State, in clear contradiction with statements issued by the United Nations that renewed Dabaiba’s recognition.

Change the map of the conflict

The Libyan arena is currently witnessing a very complex situation.

Dabaiba was subjected to a failed assassination attempt hours before the decision to dismiss him, while the Supreme Council of State is still confused about the next step, while the Speaker of the Council, Khaled Al-Mashri, confirmed in televised statements his approval of the mechanism for choosing Bashagha for the government, claiming that he had obtained the required recommendations according to The road map, and that the legal text that brought Dabaiba at the head of an interim transitional government stipulated the end of its term on December 24, 2021, that is, with the arrival of the date of the presidential elections, which were postponed 14 months to be in the fall of 2023, the Council reconfirmed in a later statement that no He is still studying the matter, in reference to a possible rift in his ranks.

But regardless of the final position of the State Council, it is likely that Libya today is on its way to return to its old status with two governments quarreling legitimacy, which means returning to resorting to the force of arms again.

In light of all parties’ understanding of the ruling equation that the parties have long ruled over, the Libyan capital, Tripoli, mobilized about 200 heavily armed military vehicles and fighters coming from the city of Misurata to support Dabaiba in the face of Bashagha, both of which are from that city, which stands as an impenetrable barrier against its fall into the grip of the Libyan east.

These forces are currently stipulating, in order to prevent renewed bloodshed on the outskirts of the capital, that the draft constitution be put to a referendum, with urgent parliamentary elections to be held no later than next June. Otherwise, only blood is enough to force the opponent to resort to negotiation.

But things will not be so easy, Tripoli and the western camp itself have become divided between Dabaiba and Bashagha, a goal that Haftar and Aqila Saleh have long sought to achieve.

Not only that, according to the written pledge stipulated by the Libyan parliament speaker, Bashagha will not run for the upcoming presidential elections, which means that the old guard will easily get rid of his most prominent opponents and potential rivals for the presidency, as he agreed to the current position and legally committed himself not to run in the elections.

For his part, Abdel Hamid al-Dabaiba, head of the national unity government in Libya, clings to his position, considering it immunized as it resulted from an international agreement, forgetting that the United Nations, which was unable to condemn Haftar and stop his military advance on Tripoli, was the same that remained silent and contented itself with hesitant support. for its legitimacy.

In any case, there are no clear indications so far that there are exits from the current impasse in light of the changing map of the conflict. Haftar, the most powerful man in the east, welcomed the new government, and Aqila Saleh provided her with a legal umbrella, while the West is engaged in its own division, where it is still Bashagha has a clear influence that enabled him to enter the capital recently without objection, and on the other hand, Dabaiba is still supported by tribes and notables in the city of Misurata who sided with him, and considered in a statement that forming a parallel government is enabling the putschists, and splitting the internal row of one of the most powerful and most powerful battalions in Libya armed.

War or elections, which is closer?

So far, the only winner from that chaos that struck Libya remains the parliament itself that paved the way for that division, which will remain in its capacity until 2023, that is, until presidential elections are held according to the current announced track, and then Aguila Saleh, the Speaker of the Libyan House of Representatives, became Officially one of the most powerful participants in the Libyan game, he cannot be isolated by force of arms, nor through traditional political tracks, because the Tripoli government cannot dissolve Parliament at present, even if it officially called for this before, while Saleh, on his part, has more important papers to influence the events that took place. You know the Libyan arena, whether politically or militarily.

According to most probabilities, the governmental conflict crisis currently taking place in Libya is scheduled to be resolved in favor of Bashagha, especially if he receives the recommendation of the State Council as expected.

The two legislative bodies, the House of Representatives and the Supreme Council of State, had previously agreed on a road map that would lead to changing the government while agreeing on the constitutional path, through the formation of a constitutional committee to consider the draft constitution and submit it to a referendum.

On the other hand, Dabaiba ignored the movements of his opponents and announced his intention to put forward a new draft law on elections, to present it to the House of Representatives before referring it to the Presidency Council for approval, despite his conviction of the futility of this as he does not currently have the authority to do so.

On the other hand, it does not seem that the agreement of the House of Representatives and the Supreme Council of State on a single road map will eventually lead to the elections. Libya without taking the opinion of the Supreme Council, in contravention of the political agreement that gave the latter the power to express an opinion, as the gap between the two partners appears to be clear in each of them’s perceptions of the country’s political future. Empowering the Libyan general, a far-reaching ideological dispute that may explode in the coming stages.

While Parliament is seeking to empower Haftar or Aguila Saleh to lead Libya, the Supreme Council warns against empowering the Libyan general, a far-reaching ideological dispute that may erupt in the coming stages.

(Routers)

As for what complicates the scene further and threatens not to complete the elections on their new date after they have been postponed, it is the inherent fear of each party about the victory of the other party, because of the political liquidations that may result from this, whose arrows will be directed towards the losing faction by setting up revenge trials, as Dabaiba and those around him seek to exclude Saleh, And bring Haftar, who is implicated in war crimes, to trial, while the eastern forces continue to push the tide of events in their favor politically, at a time when they keep the military card in case the elections lead to an undesirable figure.

Therefore, these obstacles result in the impossibility of uniting the military institution and expelling mercenaries from the country in order to stabilize the situation.

For their part, the active countries in the Libyan file fear that the internal political changes will harm their economic interests in oil-rich Libya, and this is what prompted countries such as Egypt, which pin their hopes on the cake of reconstruction, and ensure that Libya does not turn into the Turkish camp, to engage in the recent arrangements that paved the way for the overthrow In Dabaiba, as for Europe, whose vision of some countries such as Italy and France are consistent with Cairo’s vision, it seems more preoccupied with its major investments in the fields of energy and oil in the Libyan interior. The priority then - at the moment - is to hold presidential and parliamentary elections without delay, as long as what the elections will bring to power will guarantee it A share in the Libyan cake that makes many people salivate.