Military tensions continue over Ukraine.

The United States and others are strongly wary that Russia, which deploys large-scale military units around the Ukrainian border, may invade.



What would happen if Russia invaded Ukraine?

I will explain in detail based on the information of the American think tank, which summarizes the assumed scenario of military action by Russia.


(Washington bureau reporter Kosuke Watanabe)

Is there a possibility of Russian troops invading Ukraine?

The United States is strongly wary of this possibility.



"Russian military invasion can begin at any time, including during the Beijing Olympics," said Sullivan, National Security Adviser at the White House, on February 11.



On the other hand, the Russian side claims that it has no intention of invading Ukraine.

What is the rationale for the United States to claim that Russia "may" invade?

The United States sees the possibility of an invasion due to the movement and strengthening of Russian troops.



Russia is currently deploying troops to surround its neighboring country, Ukraine, from the following four directions, and its total force is estimated to be more than 100,000.

▽ Near the border of eastern Ukraine ▽


Belarus located on the north side of Ukraine


▽ Transnistria region, which bordered on the western border of Ukraine and declared independence unilaterally from the eastern part of Moldova in 1990.

Russia has also stationed troops here and is influential.


▽ Crimea, which Russia annexed unilaterally eight years ago



If Russia invades, the aim is to put Ukraine, which was once the same country as the Soviet Union, in the sphere of influence of Russia, and to form a military alliance in Western countries, NATO. = It seems that it is to create a military buffer zone with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

What military action could be considered if Russia invaded?

In a report released at the end of January, the CSIS = Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank that is said to have a strong influence on US foreign and security policy, announced a scenario that Russia thinks it can take.



Six scenarios have been analyzed in detail and are in the spotlight.

Of the six scenarios, the first is to withdraw military units deployed near the border by Russia, while supporting armed groups called pro-Russian factions in eastern Ukraine, and launching cyber attacks. That is.

The second is to advance the army to areas controlled by pro-Russian militants in eastern Ukraine for eight years.



These two seem to be aimed at shaking the Ukrainian government while Russia avoids full-scale fighting.



And the scale of military action will expand after the third scenario.

Third, Russian troops occupy the eastern side of the Dnieper River, which runs north-south in central Ukraine.



The capital Kiev is pinched from the Russian side and the Belarusian side, and the eastern part is attacked and occupied from the pro-Russian territory and Crimea.



The authors of the report point out that the aim is to divide Ukraine into east and west at geographical boundaries and drive the administration into collapse.

The fourth scenario is to occupy the eastern part of Ukraine as well as the southern Black Sea coast.



Fifth, it occupies only the area along the Black Sea coast.

The fourth and fifth scenarios are international trading hubs that rob Odessa, an important gateway to the Black Sea, with an economic blow and secure a supply route to the Transnistria region where Russian troops are stationed. There seems to be speculation.

The sixth scenario is to occupy the whole of Ukraine.

Which scenario is most likely?

If it happens, what is the impact?

These scenarios are what think tanks have independently predicted, but the security expert and senior deputy director of CSIS, Seth Jones, who compiled the report, said that if Russia invaded, the Ukrainian army would also have fierce resistance. Russia points out that it is likely that there will be a second and third scenario of advancing troops to eastern Ukraine, rather than advancing troops throughout Ukraine, as expected.



Then, if the scenario becomes a reality, I would like to explain its impact on the world.

CSIS Seth Jones Senior Deputy Director


"(Russia's military invasion) could divide Ukraine into east and west. It could result in something like East-West Germany, North Korea and South Korea. Ukraine is centered around unarmed areas. It could be divided into two, one under the pro-Western Ukrainian regime and the other under Russia. It could be a decisive break for a new'iron curtain'. "

How much damage could be done if invaded?

Although the CSIS report does not mention, U.S. media said that if Russian troops invaded Ukraine on a large scale, the capital Kiev would fall within two days, killing and injuring up to 50,000 civilians. Then, it is reported that the American intelligence agency is analyzing.

Will US troops fight locally if Russia invades Ukraine?

President Biden has denied sending troops to Ukraine.



The reason is that Mr. Jones of CSIS said that


▽ Ukraine is not an ally of the United States and has no defense obligation


▽ The United States just withdrew its military from Afghanistan last August and does not want to be involved in a war that never ends


▽ It is mentioned that if the US and Russia face each other directly in the military, it could escalate into a nuclear war


.



Meanwhile, Jones warned that if Ukraine were to be divided, the United States could provide weapons to Ukrainian pro-Western forces and fall into a state of civil war like in the former Afghanistan. ..

CSIS Seth Jones Senior Deputy Director


"In the 1980s, US troops did not deploy regular forces in Afghanistan, which was invaded by the Soviet Union, but militarily supported forces that resisted the Soviet Union. Soldiers from both the United States and Russia were on the ground. It's a better way than facing it directly. "

What is the United States doing to prevent the invasion of Russia?

The United States is pressing for a dialogue solution, strengthening its military deterrence against Russia and showing its readiness to impose strong sanctions.



It announced that it would dispatch a unit of 3,000 people to Poland and Romania, which are adjacent to Ukraine, and on February 11, it would send an additional unit of 3,000 people to Poland.

When Russia unilaterally annexed Crimea eight years ago, the United States gradually tightened sanctions on Russia, but could not suppress it.



With this in mind, President Biden said, "If Russia invades, Russian banks will not be able to use the dollar and will suffer catastrophic damage," and will impose "quick and severe" sanctions. I'm warning you.



In addition, although it is unknown whether it is true or false, it also reveals information that Russia plans to produce a video that will be forged as if it was attacked by Ukraine in an attempt to use it as an excuse for invasion.



The aim is to control the aircraft ahead, assuming an information warfare by Russia.



Although diplomatic efforts by European countries such as France and Germany are continuing over Ukraine, it is unpredictable whether the situation can be resolved through dialogue.