When will the Russian invasion of Ukraine begin?

It could be as early as next week, American President Joe Biden warned his most important allies in a video conference on Friday evening.

As several media reported and the FAZ was confirmed by participants, Biden is said to have named February 16 as a possible date, i.e. Wednesday.

Publicly, the President's National Security Advisor would not be committed to a specific date, but, as Jake Sullivan said, "there is a credible prospect that military action could take place before the end of the Olympics."

Their graduation ceremony is next Sunday, February 20th.

Thomas Gutschker

Political correspondent for the European Union, NATO and the Benelux countries based in Brussels.

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Apparently, the Americans intercepted Russian internal communications underlying Biden's warning.

Of course, this cannot be checked, but military developments on the ground can.

Independent Polish military analyst Konrad Muzyka, who has been following the march closely for weeks, released his latest count on Sunday.

Accordingly, Russia now has 93 tactical battalion combat groups near the border with Ukraine.

In western security circles there was talk of “almost a hundred” of these reinforced infantry and tank battalions over the weekend – with the addition that more were on the way.

A total of more than 140,000 army soldiers are now in position, and there are also at least 20,000 other naval and air force personnel in the region.

"Russia could decide in a very short time

Up to twenty kilometers

This is indicated not only by the sheer number of soldiers, but also by the fact that they are being moved closer and closer to the border.

The military speak of the "staging positions", the starting positions for an invasion.

This was first observed in Elnya ten days ago.

There, the 41st Siberian Combined Arms Army had massed hundreds of armored vehicles and guns since late October -- a major reason the CIA sounded the alarm at the time.

Yelnya is located 300 kilometers north of the Ukrainian border, not far from Belarus.

Footage shows tanks from this army arriving at Bryansk railway station, halfway to the border.

Other videos show them being taken on low-loaders towards Klintsy, which is even closer to Ukraine and where units were stationed beforehand.

Since Yelnya has been under cloud cover for the past few days, there are currently no commercial images from there.

However, special radar recordings show that the base has largely emptied.

Troops are also being brought closer to the border in other sections of the border, up to twenty kilometers.

Videos surfaced over the weekend showing long convoys from Kursk to Belgorod.

This city is located only eighty kilometers from Kharkiv, the second largest city in Ukraine.

These included launch batteries for the Iskander-M short-range ballistic system, the heaviest Russian Malka and Tjulpan howitzers and mortars, and T80 main battle tanks.

Many airborne troops helicopters were also seen.

There are also such transfers to the border from Voronezh in the north-east and from Persianovka in the south-east.

On the Belarusian border and in the south, on the annexed Crimea, Russian troops took up possible attack positions from the start.

Satellite images show that these camps have been massively expanded in recent weeks.

Here and there, two field hospitals were set up on airfields where wounded soldiers can be treated.

The corresponding medical units are said to have been supplied with blood at the end of January.

That's all part of when an attack is imminent.

Last but not least, the scheduling of the so-called Russian maneuvers speaks in favor of the beginning of the war in the coming week.

The large-scale exercise with the Belarusian armed forces is still running until February 20, from which an attack could take place, as NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has warned.

These units are at peak operational readiness.

In the Black Sea, Russia has announced "firing drills" along the Ukrainian coast until February 19.

This could be the prelude to a landing operation in the Odessa area.

The early annual exercise of the Russian nuclear troops is also expected for next week, during which ballistic missiles and cruise missiles will be launched, including from submarines.

With this threat, Moscow would deter NATO from intervening in the conflict.