WASHINGTON

- Many experts considered the race of diplomatic talks that took place on Saturday between the US and Russia as the last chance to spare Ukraine the path of war.

The US foreign and defense ministers spoke with their Russian counterparts before US Presidents Joe Biden and Russian Vladimir Putin spoke for more than an hour, amid reservations that amount to acknowledgment of failure regarding the results of all these talks on the ground.

The call lasted 62 minutes, and came at the request of the US President, after Washington announced the evacuation of most US diplomats and soldiers from Ukraine because of what it believes to be an imminent and expected Russian invasion at any moment.

The two presidents’ call was preceded by two earlier contacts between the Russian and American foreign and defense ministers, and none of these contacts changed the language of escalation and threats between the two parties against the backdrop of the Ukraine crisis.

A senior US official said the phone call between Biden and Putin did not lead to a "fundamental change" in the situation on the Ukraine crisis.

The official said in a press briefing that the consultations did not result in "a fundamental change in the dynamics that have been going on for weeks."

The White House statement issued after the end of the presidential call came similar to those issued before it, which indicates the lack of progress in light of the continuing military escalation on the Russian side, which is offset by Ukrainian military preparations supported by the United States and Western countries.


The call came with the growing concern of the Western world about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which called on several countries, led by the United States, to ask their citizens to leave Ukrainian lands, at a time when Russia denies the existence of plans to invade Ukraine, despite its mobilization of more than 130 thousand soldier on the border.

White House Statement and the Kremlin Statement

As expected, the statement issued by the White House after the summit ended, indicated that Biden spoke with Putin "about the escalation of the Russian military build-up at the borders of Ukraine," adding that Washington, in cooperation with its allies, "will respond decisively, imposing rapid and severe costs on Moscow if it is Russia has invaded Ukraine further," Biden reiterated that any further Russian invasion of Ukraine "would cause widespread human suffering and diminish Russia's standing."

As for the statement issued by the Kremlin, for its part, it confirmed what it considered "the peak of American hysteria" after the phone call between Biden and Putin, but described the call as "balanced and practical."

The Russian leadership believes that Russia should not be held responsible, because it is the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) that is taking dangerous steps, trying to spread on Ukrainian soil, and strengthening its mobilization on Russia's borders.

Moscow is demanding written guarantees that NATO will not expand to the east, and not deploy striking weapons in countries bordering Russia.


What did Biden want?

And what did Putin want?

In the call, Biden tried to deliver a final warning, the strongest yet to the Russian president, warning of the high cost of any Russian invasion of Ukraine.

At the same time, Putin reiterated Russia's concern about the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO, demanding strict guarantees from the United States and its allies that this would not happen, as Putin asserts that NATO's eastward expansion and approach to Russia's borders is unacceptable.

As for Biden, he asserts that placing a Russian veto on Ukraine's accession to NATO is unacceptable, while Putin believes that Moscow is located only a few hundred miles from Ukraine's borders, and therefore Ukraine cannot support its military relations with NATO.

Putin reiterates Russia's strong opposition to Ukraine's aspirations to join NATO, which Moscow describes as a "red line" that would lead to war.


No compromise yet

President Putin clearly reiterates his positions on Ukraine, assuring that he is ready to go to war to get what he wants.

Putin is demanding a new agreement preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, and a Western promise not to deploy advanced NATO military infrastructure in Ukraine.

In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, Andrew Lusin, an expert on Russian affairs at the Center for Political and Strategic Policies in Washington, confirmed that the Kremlin realizes that the military option will inflict heavy costs on Russia's economy and its international standing, but at the same time "it wants to convince the United States of Russia's willingness to bear these costs because of Ukraine's importance to national interests." Russian".

US, European and NATO officials have warned Russia against any military aggression against Ukraine, saying it would have serious political and economic consequences for Moscow, which is already under international sanctions for its 2014 annexation of Crimea.

It should also be noted that Russia is certainly a major military power, so its forces are likely to suffer significant loss of life if they take real military action on the ground.

In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, Steve Beaver, an expert on European affairs and disarmament at the Brookings Institution, said that "there will be a lot of Russian blood, not just Ukrainian blood, if Putin decides to make the unfortunate decision to invade eastern Ukraine, and I imagine that the mothers of the dead Russian soldiers without This is an important factor inside Russia that goes into Putin's calculations."


Spheres of influence and the scenario of war

In an interview with Al Jazeera Net, David de Roche, a professor of security studies at the National Defense University of the US Department of Defense (the Pentagon) and a former military official, said that "the invasion is not inevitable! Putin has escalated in an attempt to obtain the approval of the West to re-establish security-zones." Influence - Cold War-style.

He saw that the West was too weak to oppose him, and that Western aversion to war would allow him to obtain major concessions, "so I think these threats are only to extract concessions from the West," says Roach.

For his part, Beaver pointed out that Putin has "a set of demands, and he is more than anyone aware of the impossibility of accepting the Biden administration with them, so he seeks from the beginning the conflict and the conquest of Ukraine. These demands have not changed over recent months, and the most important of these demands is that Ukraine not join NATO In the future, for NATO to withdraw weapons from its bases in Eastern European countries close to Russian territory."

For these reasons, Beaver believes that the Russian invasion is inevitably coming, and that Russia's requests are only "a tool and a means used by Putin to justify his invasion of Ukraine. In front of the West's rejection of his requests, Putin will claim that the West left him no choice but to invade."