The return to democracy remains an empty promise
A wave of coups in West Africa.. Are military regimes sweeping the region
The suffering of the people is increasing because of the wars and drought that hit the region.
AFP
Colonel Asimi Gueta, the leader of the two coups in Mali.
Reuters
A market without goods and customers in Makato, Mali.
AFP
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First it was Mali, then Chad, then Mali again, then Guinea, Burkina Faso, and finally an attempted coup in Guinea-Bissau.
Over the past 18 months, countries in West Africa and the Sahel have witnessed coups and coup attempts one after the other, during which the army seizes power and clings to it, and the return to democracy remains an empty promise.
Watching the situation anxiously
It has become increasingly clear that each successful ouster inspires the implementation of the next, says Eric Humphrey-Smith, an analyst at security consultancy Verisk Maplecroft.
The beginning was in Mali, where the army ousted President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita in August 2020. In April 2021, Chadian President Idriss Deby Itno died in military clashes with rebels on the front, according to official data.
But many experts believe that behind this was a revolution.
Since then, Deby's son, Mohamed, has ruled the country with the participation of a military council.
In May 2021, the army in Mali ousted the interim president.
Four months later, the army in Guinea ousted President Alpha Condé.
At the end of last January, rebel soldiers seized power in Burkina Faso.
About a week later, a coup attempt occurred in Guinea-Bissau against the government of President Umaru Sissoko Embalo.
The head of the Sahel program at the German Konrad Adenauer Foundation, Ulf Lessing, expects more democratic dominoes to fall in the region soon. "There is a risk of more coups," he said, explaining that the democratically elected governments did not meet people's expectations, noting that The greater the discontent, the greater the risk of a violent seizure of power, often with the support of large sections of the population.
"This is an important sobering test for the list of Democratic leaders in the region's rapidly dwindling," Humphrey-Smith says.
Deteriorating security situation
For years, the region has been suffering from a continuous deterioration in the security situation.
Many militias, some of which have pledged allegiance to ISIS or al-Qaeda terrorists, regularly carry out attacks.
Governments have little control over the semi-arid Sahel.
The heads of state of the region are accused of inaction.
Resentment reigns among armies, and soldiers feel annihilated during the fight against terrorism, sometimes working in intolerable conditions, including low wages, lack of equipment, rickety barracks, and inadequate food rations.
Aside from the precarious security situation, many countries in West Africa and the Sahel are forced to contend with prolonged periods of drought, famine and widespread poverty.
In addition, endemic corruption at the government level causes bitterness, explains Lessing of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation.
Little wonder, for Lessing, that the military is seen as a stronger and better alternative to civilian government.
pivotal question
The wave of coups raises a central question: has democracy and stability in the entire region begun to falter?
For Lessing, the sharp deterioration in the security situation alone has brought the region to the brink, explaining that preserving democracy has become a secondary issue for many citizens.
The international community stands idly by in the face of the coups, and the demands of the United Nations and the European Union to "return to constitutional order" are simply ignored.
Also, mediation and sanctions attempts by the Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have had little success.
In Mali, for example, the original timetable for democratic elections has been cancelled.
The French ambassador was also recently expelled from there, after French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian criticized the military council.
The growing diplomatic crisis could also undermine the war on terror, which Germany and France are heavily backed by troops there.
The two countries also support the military coalition (G5 Sahel) in the region.
The French foreign minister has already questioned the feasibility of the international fight against terrorism in Mali.
By mid-February, France intends to discuss a future military presence there with its European partners.
Suspicion is also growing in Germany.
According to a report by the German newspaper "Süddeutsche Zeitung", German Foreign Minister Annallina Birbock is skeptical about the mission of her country's army in Mali due to the growing tensions with the military council.
• The international community stands idly by in the face of coups, and the demands of the United Nations and Europe to return to the constitutional order are ignored.
• The region has been suffering for years from a continuous deterioration in the security situation. Many militias, some of which have pledged allegiance to ISIS or al-Qaeda terrorists, regularly carry out attacks.
• The regional heads of state are accused of impotence. Resentment prevails among the armies, and soldiers feel annihilated during the fight against terrorism, as they work in difficult conditions, such as low wages and lack of equipment.
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