The PP foresees a sufficient majority in a very volatile electoral scenario

• 13-F All the information about the elections in Castilla y León

• Autonomous The candidates of the elections of Castilla y León 2022

Probably never before in regional elections the first two parties -PSOE and PP- had played so much.

For this reason, because the

bet everything on the change of cycle and the socialists launch the ordinance of the consolidation of their power, the elections in

are worthy of the description of "historical".

In the roulette of the polls, it is the PP who bids the strongest and risks the most.

The first opposition party, solely responsible for the early electoral call, aspires to an incontestable victory that provokes in the national voter a kind of inertia capable of catapulting him to victory in the general elections.

In this strategy, beyond retaining power in Castilla y León, one of the key objectives is to consolidate and promote the figure of Pablo Casado as the future President of the Government.

For this, from

, not only the electoral advance was encouraged but also the rupture of the alliance maintained with Ciudadanos in the regional government.

The main lines should follow the example of

with the hope of achieving, in the image and likeness of Isabel Díaz Ayuso, an overwhelming victory.

Thus, the pre-campaign and the first part of the campaign were fed largely by messages of confrontation with the central Executive with Casado as the protagonist.

However, Castilla y León soon revealed itself as an electoral territory very different from that of Madrid.

The aspirations and needs of its voters -health, education, aging, dispersion...-, an alarming stumble in the polls and the alert launched by José María Aznar calling for a clear and unifying project over and above the desire to boost a leader to

, caused a kind of catharsis, a shift towards the territory, placing the candidate Alfonso Fernández Mañueco more in the foreground.

Despite the redirection of the course, the expectations of the PP have gone from more to less.

The latest scenario drawn by most polls points to a short victory -between 32 and 37 seats- in which Mañueco would have to count on Vox to govern, a party that the polls predict a very important promotion, between nine and 12 attorneys .

Changing an alliance with the liberals for another with the radical right can damage the national and international image of a PP that claims to be moderate, pro-European and modern.

And that of their leader, too.

For most observers, this scenario would be a severe setback for Mañueco and even more so for Casado.

Of the praised speech of him facing Vox in the failed motion of censure against Pedro Sánchez, not even the memory would remain.

An agreement with Vox to govern Castilla y León would undoubtedly be a heavy burden on Casado's shoulders in his race to La Moncloa.

Everything indicates that Fernández Mañueco, if his victory is confirmed, will have to bow to the demands of Santiago Abascal's party, either giving him entry into the government or signing a governability agreement.

The PSOE for its part, unlike the PP, has gone through the campaign growing.

More for the mistakes of his opponent than for his own successes.

Luis Tudanca won the last elections but the PP-Cs pact snatched the presidency from him.

On this occasion he has deployed a campaign with little bellows raising the somewhat hackneyed idea of ​​"change" after more than three decades of popular governments.

The polls predict between 25 and 29 seats.

To promote a process that was declining, the socialist candidate has had to rely on the "successes" of the central government and on the announcements and promises profusely sown in recent days by Sánchez.

Everything has gone into that bag: European funds, the controversial validation of the labor reform decree, the rise in the minimum interprofessional salary, the minimum vital income, the youth bonus...

The polls, with the exception of the Tezanos CIS, place him as the second party with very little chance of becoming president of the

.

Not even relying on the range of provincial forces that breaks into these elections and that could get to do with up to eight prosecutors.

Ciudadanos does not appear to be a solid support either.

Most polls predict a gloomy future for the

, who could only get one seat for Francisco Igea.

Only the CIS has fueled his hopes by predicting up to five representatives.

Nor will its natural ally, United We Can, have much strength, a party with little territorial presence and to which the polls do not give more than three seats.

A victory for Luis Tudanca would serve the PSOE and Pedro Sánchez to break the dynamic of political overturn that the PP intends to sow.

Snatching the Castilian-Leonese Junta from the

would be a round victory for the socialists.

Almost as important as the one that the PP took from the Government of

to the PSOE.

Planting a flag in the opponent's traditional fief always means a very important extra point.

Failing in this effort will be a blow to the PSOE and to Sánchez, above all because it rains on the still open wound inflicted on them by Isabel Díaz Ayuso in Madrid, but not as hard as the one that the PP and its leader would suffer in the same case, Paul Married.

For Casado, the loss of Castilla y León would imply questioning his leadership, especially within his own party.

Inevitably, the figure of the Madrid president would take on a new shine as an alternative to lead the

project .

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• PP

• PSOE

• Castile and Leon

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• citizens

• Isabel Diaz Ayuso

• Paul Married

• Pedro Sanchez

• United We Can

• Santiago Abascal Count

• Alfonso Fernandez Manueco

• Jose Maria Aznar

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