Vincent Hervouët 11:25 a.m., February 11, 2022, modified at 11:25 a.m., February 11, 2022
It's the return of the Iranian puzzle.
Although discussions have resumed in Vienna on the nuclear program, Joe Biden must urgently take up this real strategic challenge since the President of the United States is playing his mandate.
The Iranians are about to have enough fissile material to make a bomb.
EDITORIAL
For a month, Washington has been shouting.
The Pentagon counts the Russian armored vehicles, quantifies the probable deaths, the millions of refugees, only the buttons of gaiters are missing from the inventory of the catastrophe.
However, we can bet that there will be no war in Ukraine.
No peace either in the Donbass.
Both the Kremlin and NATO need to keep this iron in the fire, Ukraine as a training ground.
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The real challenge: Iran's nuclear
The important thing is elsewhere: in the Russian-American dialogue which has been renewed for a new balance of forces in Europe, giving everyone guarantees of security.
It's under construction and the world on the balcony.
But far from the spotlight, the real strategic challenge that Joe Biden must take up is being played out in Vienna, it is the Iranian nuclear.
In a way, it's much more important.
For Biden playing his term.
For the Middle East which is going to be turned upside down.
For the nuclear arms race which will be revived.
For Israel's security too.
But it's been going on for years… What has changed?
With their centrifuges spinning at full speed, the Iranians are about to have enough fossil material to make a bomb.
It's a matter of weeks, maybe days.
The moment of truth is approaching.
Stubbornly, they continued their race to the atom.
By openly defying the world or muted.
The reports of the inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the intelligence agencies, the calculations of probability, everything converges to say that they are approaching the nuclear threshold.
That doesn't mean they have the bomb.
What matters is being at the nuclear threshold.
To have the choice to assemble the weapon or to continue without it.
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When you are there, your relationship to the world is radically different.
If Saddam Hussein or Muammar Kadhafi had been at the nuclear threshold, we would not have pushed them into hell.
Conversely, if Kim Jong-un had not inherited his father's arsenal, the Stalinist dynasty would have been swept away with its sinister folklore.
Robert Malley, who is the chief American negotiator, has just spoken to Congress.
The Senators walked out in dismay.
He didn't tell them
Game over
but they got the message.
Tantalus' ordeal
From there, there are two camps.
Those who think that we must return at any price to the agreement signed in 2015 with Iran, the famous JCPOA that Donald Trump found null, lift the sanctions and keep the factories under surveillance.
Joe Biden despairs because the Iranians did not take the hand he extended to them.
They refuse a direct dialogue, they play the clock in the cozy rooms of the Palais Coburg, the Viennese palace where they met this week the Russians, the Chinese, the Germans, the British and the French with whom they palaver.
It is Tantalus' torture.
But there are also supporters of the hard way...
The real ones, we don't hear them.
They know that if there is an agreement, it will be worse than that of 2015. That we have to choose between a bad solution and an even worse one.
The Revolutionary Guards yesterday tested a new missile, named after a Muhammad victory, that goes so fast it pierces anti-missile shields.
It brings to 1,450 kilometers, just the distance with Israel.
Joe Biden will not be able to drop everything to the mullahs as he gave up everything to the Taliban.