“These images show either the greatest bluff in modern military history or the expression of the Russian will to show the world that they are preparing a military operation”.
Glen Grant, a senior analyst at the Baltic Security Foundation and specialist in Russian military issues interviewed by France 24, belongs to the camp of pessimists about the possibility of war with Ukraine.
He is not alone in finding that the new satellite photos published on Thursday, February 10, by the American space imaging company Maxar “add disturbing elements to an already grim situation”, as summarized by the New York Times.
A military camp set up next to an air base north of Simferopol, the capital of Crimea © AP / Maxar
Russian troops on the move
These new views from the sky on the Russian-Ukrainian front – Maxar has published them regularly in recent months – illustrate the deployment of additional troops and military equipment in three strategic regions: in Crimea, near the Kursk training camp and in Belarus several hundred kilometers east of the area where Russian-Belarusian military exercises have been taking place since Thursday.
The most important arrival of Russian soldiers took place in Crimea, this peninsula in the south of Ukraine annexed by Russia in 2014. There are, thus, several hundred fighters, at least 500 tents and military vehicles which appear now on satellite images of the region north of Simferopol, the capital of Crimea.
Armor also arrived in northern Crimea, near the coastal town of Slavne.
This military deployment comes as part of the Russian Baltic fleet – including amphibious assault boats – has just arrived in the Black Sea.
“It may be an additional way of putting pressure on Kiev, but repatriating these warships to the south is expensive, and having them arrive at the same time as new soldiers deployed in Crimea shows a desire to be ready to act if necessary,” says Glen Grant.
For him, this renewed military activity in the south must be analyzed in a broader context of the movement of Russian troops along the border with Ukraine.
“Until now, we saw on satellite images divisions that remained stationed in barracks.
From now on, some of these soldiers have set out to approach the border.
This does not necessarily announce an imminent attack, but these soldiers cannot remain indefinitely on the road without doing anything”, estimates this specialist of the Baltic security foundation.
The satellite photos also show for the first time "the installation of a field hospital, which is also a way of intensifying the pressure", adds Tracey German, specialist in Russian military operations at King's College London, contacted by France 24. Moscow thus indicates that it is considering very concretely the possibility of combat and the need to take care of the wounded on the battlefield.
An ever-stronger military presence in Belarus
Troops were also sent to reinforce the garrison present at the Kursk training camp.
The presence of Russian armed forces, and in particular armored vehicles, in this place has worried observers since the end of December 2021. This camp is, in fact, in a straight line north of Kharkov, the second largest city in Ukraine, this which would make it “a strategic target” for the Russians if a war were to break out, notes the New York Times.
“There is, in fact, a highway that leads from Kursk to Kharkov, which can facilitate logistics and supply issues,” explains Tracey German.
Finally, Moscow continues to deplete its eastern front by repatriating more and more soldiers from Siberia to Belarus.
And, this time, Russia was not satisfied with men since “for the first time, we see helicopters appearing on satellite photos at an air base near the town of Gomel, 25 km from the border with Ukraine,” notes CNN.
Combat helicopters were deployed near Gomel, a city in Belarus about twenty kilometers from the border with Ukraine.
© AP/Maxar
“These are combat helicopters, which act as flying tanks for the Russian army”, notes Glen Grant.
A strategic choice because "the border between Belarus and Ukraine is difficult to cross for traditional tanks because of the terrain", notes Ofer Fridman, specialist in Russian military issues at King's College London, contacted by France 24. The marshes of Pinsk extend, in fact, along part of the border between Belarus and Ukraine and “from March, this region becomes very muddy, complicating the movement of ground forces”, recalls the Washington Post.
The new troops arrived more than 300 km "east of the region where Russia and Belarus have been carrying out joint exercises since Thursday", notes CNN.
"It's as if Moscow wants to draw Western attention to the area where these trainings are taking place in the hope that they don't look at where other troops are deployed along the border," he said. Glen Grant.
Support where it hurts NATO
But do these new troop movements highlighted by Maxar's satellite photos allow us to know more about Russian intentions?
“If we compare with the images from two months ago, it is clear that the general picture appears more aggressive and gives the impression of a higher level of Russian preparation”, summarizes Tracey German.
The fact that Russian troops are deployed everywhere, from south to north of the border, can also serve to confuse the issue, say analysts interviewed by France 24. In the age of satellite images and modern intelligence, Moscow does not was under no illusions about his ability to amass troops secretly.
By very openly multiplying the options for a possible offensive, the Russian army can hope that the Ukrainians and their allies will not know from where Russia will strike first.
But this "over-militarization" of the border can, paradoxically, also be a sign that there will be no fighting, suggests Ofer Fridman, of King's College London.
“Moscow may have the objective of attacking Ukraine or NATO.
In this second hypothesis, we must think about the most effective and rapid method to weaken this institution”, he explains.
This would not be, according to him, by invading Ukraine, but rather “by maintaining a permanent and always strong military tension on the border”.
A famous chess player, Aaron Nimzowitsch, wrote in one of the reference works of chess theory ("My System") that "threat is stronger than execution".
In this case, the increasingly strong presence of the Russian army on the Ukrainian border is "a way of playing with the nerves of the NATO countries and forcing them to position themselves", believes this specialist from King's College .
We have already seen that there are disagreements between the positions of the different countries of the organization.
The United States and the United Kingdom are more ready to support Ukraine militarily than Germany, while France has attempted to go it alone diplomatically.
“NATO already had weaknesses before, and it is possible that Moscow simply hopes that by maintaining sufficient pressure, the organization will eventually crack,” concludes Ofer Fridman.
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