To justify increasing its presence in Eastern Europe
Western countries exaggerate the extent of the Russian threat to Ukraine
Russian troops during an exercise.
dad
Putin is very careful in the use of force.
AFP
Sherman said that her country sees all indications that Putin will use military force soon.
Reuters
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Military experts in Kiev dismissed US and UK predictions of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, denying that the Russian army had prepared the appropriate manpower and equipment for such an invasion.
Former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andrei Zagordnyuk and several military specialists wrote a report at the Center for Defense Studies in Kiev saying, “We now have a report that there is a military threat posed by the presence of 127,000 Russian soldiers along the Ukrainian border, in the occupied areas of eastern Ukraine and the peninsula. Crimea.
This number has increased since April 2021 and is not sufficient for an all-out attack on Ukraine.”
Insufficient ammunition
The report states categorically that the Russian forces are not in a position to carry out the invasion during the next two or three weeks, and most likely will not be able to do so during 2022. The report indicates the absence of ammunition and fuel in addition to field hospitals, and the trained and necessary military units of the modern armies that You will take part in the war.
This view, rejecting the possibility of a Russian attack against Ukraine, was confirmed by many defense officials and ministers in Ukraine, who played down the war hysteria in Washington and London.
And Ukrainian military experts are not the only ones saying that Russia did not take the necessary military measures for the invasion. Senior French officials expressed similar skepticism to the Ukrainians. But we cannot conclude that an attack is imminent.”
Western view
Against the view that important things will not happen soon, American and British officials are saying to the world something different. US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said last Wednesday that the United States “sees all indications that Russian President Vladimir Putin will use military force in Soon, maybe between now and mid-February.” A British intelligence official, who declined to be named, said three days later on more specifics that he said Russian amphibious warships could take the Ukrainian port of Odessa in The Black Sea as part of a multi-front offensive when occupying the whole of Ukraine.
"It's not just a negotiating tactic or a threat when you deploy so many soldiers with these military capabilities," the British official said.
On the contrary, this is exactly what Russia wants to do in order to give its unspoken threat to the issue of invasion this impetus, in order to be a powerful lever in any negotiations.
Referring to the reports from Kiev, the Russians did not actually do much to make the possibility of a blitzkrieg and multi-sided war more credible.
127 thousand soldiers a small number
But it seems they don't need to because the US and UK serve the Kremlin with that, and they compare the deployment of 127,000 soldiers, too few to occupy Ukraine, the largest area of France, with the Red Army, which numbered 11 million soldiers at the end of World War II, The British intelligence official, who was previously mentioned, mentioned in confirmation of his information by referring to the transfer of Russian forces from the Russian Far East, noting that this had not happened since 1941, and it was a “precedent in the modern era.”
A recipe for disaster
And if a major Russian offensive is not imminent, why doesn't Russia launch a smaller offensive, perhaps just capturing large cities such as Kiev, Khakov, and Odessa?
In reality, that would be a recipe for disaster because that would leave much of Ukraine, not under Moscow's control, able to resist in the back lines of Russian tank columns.
The only credible advances made by the Russians were in the far southeast of Ukraine, between the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, which declared their independence alone, and the Russian-annexed Crimea.
It would be possible for Russian soldiers to capture the city of Mariupol, a city of about 565,000 people on the Sea of Azov, one of the largest steel mills in Europe, about 15 miles from the breakaway republics.
Western sanctions
But well-sourced analysts in Moscow tell me that the Russians will not do that, even if the crisis escalates dramatically.
Because a Russian takeover of a small part of Ukraine would precipitate a torrent of Western sanctions, cut off Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines to Germany, and push Ukraine toward NATO, which are the exact opposite of what the Kremlin wants.
From Russia's point of view, the threat to invade Ukraine is a trump card in its hand, as long as it does not play it, but if it does play it will be the beginning of an unwinnable war, and it would be political suicide for Putin and his government.
Western media may suggest that Putin is isolated in the Kremlin, and his rule eroded by his two decades in power, but that may be crude propaganda.
Verifiable evidence, which we derive from Russian military interventions in Chechnya in 1999, through Ukraine in 2014, and ending with Syria in 2015, indicates that Putin is very cautious in using force, even if he wants to seize Mariupol, the Russian-speaking part of the country. Southeast Ukraine, to do so very easily in 2014.
The most mysterious issue
Suppose that Putin maintains his common sense, and prudence, he will avoid the invasion and will seek to use the threat to ensure that Ukraine remains neutral, and that the Russian enclaves in it have a federal status, and he may not get his demands as he wants, but that will not destroy him in front of Russian public opinion as long as he avoids wage war.
Even more mysterious than Russia's goals is the war of hysteria that is sweeping the political, military, and intelligence elites of the United States and the United Kingdom.
Perhaps one of the conspiratorial explanations for the American and British exaggeration in the rattling of Russian swords is that Western intelligence services are not stupid, and do not lack information so as not to know that Russia will not invade Ukraine, but they pretend maliciously, to believe the threats as a pretext for the West to expand its military presence in Eastern Europe.
It is clear that domestic political advantages play a role in deepening the crisis, the security and foreign policy elites in Washington and London enjoy waging cold wars, and Britain often wants to secure its position as America's closest ally.
Joe Biden statesman
American Democratic Party politicians hate Putin because they believe he helped former President Donald Trump win the 2016 US presidential election, and they have always portrayed Trump as a puppet of Putin, despite the lack of evidence for this, and US President Joe Biden wants to erase the memory of the recent disaster in Afghanistan, from By presenting himself with determined statesmanship positions in the Ukraine crisis.
Although Putin does not intend to invade, his failure to do so can easily be portrayed as evidence of his regression to the iron wills of Biden and Johnson.
• The Russian takeover of a small part of Ukraine will accelerate a torrent of Western sanctions, stop Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines to Germany, and push Ukraine towards NATO, which are exactly the opposite of what the Kremlin wants.
• From Russia's point of view, the threat to invade Ukraine is a trump card in its hand, as long as it does not play it, but if it plays it, it will be the beginning of an unwinnable war, and it will also be a political suicide for Putin and his government.
• It is clear that domestic political advantages play a role in deepening the crisis, and the security and foreign policy elites in Washington and London enjoy waging cold wars, and Britain often wants to ensure its position as America's closest ally.
Patrick Cockburn - British journalist
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