Ukrainian crisis: Georgian strategy towards Russia and its limits

Demonstration in support of Ukraine in front of the Ukrainian Embassy in Tbilisi, Georgia, on Sunday, January 23, 2022. AP - Shakh Aivazov

Text by: Régis Genté Follow

3 mins

In recent weeks, many experts or politicians have said that we must speak with Russia, in the context of the risks of war in Ukraine.

Others believe that it is useless, that Vladimir Putin will not let go.

Georgia, a neighboring country of Russia, has changed its approach for nearly ten years.

From a policy of political and diplomatic confrontation with Moscow, led by former President Mikhail Saakashvili, the small Caucasian republic has moved on to a strategy of “normalizing” its relations with Russia.

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From our correspondent in Tbilisi

, 

Georgia's non-confrontational approach to Russia has achieved little or nothing.

At least as regards the essential, namely the restoration of territorial integrity.

It should be remembered that Georgia lost control, in the early 1990s, of two regions,

and

, due to Russian military support.

This represents 20% of the national territory.

A rapprochement with NATO

This is what led Tbilisi, during the 1990s, to seek the protection of NATO.

Despite the so-called policy of "normalization" of relations with Moscow implemented in 2012, after the victory of the "Georgian Dream" party of Bidzina Ivanishvili, an oligarch who made his fortune in Russia, no signs of encouragement were sent by the Kremlin.

Yet Tbilisi is really showing good will.

We have witnessed, for example, the materialization by small bits of the administrative boundary with South Ossetia.

That is, Russian border guards regularly lay barbed wire along it.

And incidents, sometimes deadly, multiply along this “administrative boundary”.

The Geneva process, launched at the end of the Russo-Georgian war in the summer of 2008, is unable to resolve anything in this area.

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A normalization of relations that has its limits

In the absence of diplomatic relations, Moscow and Tbilisi have created a discussion format, between a Russian diplomat and a special envoy from the Georgian Prime Minister.

They meet a few times a year, usually in Prague.

This mechanism has made it possible to find compromises essentially in the economic sphere.

This made it possible in 2013 to lift the Russian embargo on Georgian wines and mineral waters.

The Russian market is historically the main outlet for Georgian wine.

About 2/3 of it is sold in Russia today.

But a new political crisis between the two countries in 2019 led Moscow to raise the threat of a new embargo, which shows the ambiguity of this success of the “normalization” policy.

Passivity and Russian influence 

Tbilisi watches with great apprehension the tensions around Ukraine, telling itself that if war breaks out, Georgia will certainly suffer.

The government remains faithful to its “live in hiding” approach, let us not irritate the Kremlin by displaying any support for Kiev.

Opponents and part of public opinion, of which it is not possible to say whether it is in the majority, believe that it is already a surrender to Russia, that not to fight for its sovereignty, to be passive, is to surrender more open to Russian influence, while three-quarters of the 3.7 million Georgians consistently support rapprochement with the West.

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