The crisis in Ukraine .. How does the escalation with Russia affect Biden's popularity?

WASHINGTON

- With President Joe Biden's administration emphasizing that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could begin at any moment and a ground invasion close to inevitable, there are few divisions among Americans about what to do if war breaks out between Russia and Ukraine.

Most Americans agree on the limited options available to Washington to respond to Russian aggression, of which direct military intervention is not one of them. However, this does not mean that there are voices calling for a firm stand against Russian behavior.

The repercussions of the crisis may deepen the deterioration of Biden's popularity if Russia ignores Western threats (Reuters)

No to war... But!

No US official suggested that his country's forces go to war for Ukraine, and the Russian military build-up on the Ukrainian border led to a rare agreement between Democrats and Republicans at an unprecedented stage of America's political division.

The leaders of the two parties agree on the White House policy aimed at imposing comprehensive sanctions on the Russian banking and energy sectors, in addition to sanctions on plans to transport Nord Stream 2 gas, and also agree to provide Ukraine with American-made weapons, and no calls came out among the 100 senators or 435 members of the House of Representatives to fight Russia.

"There are a few things we need to be clear about, and one of them is that the American people, frankly, will not support sending hundreds of thousands of American soldiers to Ukraine," Democratic Senator Chris Murphy said on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee after returning from a visit to Ukraine last month.

And Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee - a traditionally hawkish supporter of the use of military force - has supported the deployment of US forces to countries neighboring Ukraine, only urging Biden to impose and apply more severe sanctions on Russia.

While Senator Robert Menendez, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said that the imposition of sanctions should be gradual, stressing that "the imposition of sanctions will be in accordance with the measures that the Russians will actually take on the ground."

Americans are against getting involved in a war

Regular opinion polls show that a majority of Americans prefer diplomacy to deal with Russia over sanctions or go to war for Ukraine, and a majority of them question the assertions of most US media outlets that Ukraine is a vital US national interest.

Between January 29 and February 1, the YouGov polling site asked 1,500 American citizens what the United States should do if Russia invaded Ukraine.

The site presented the respondents with several options, and the two least popular options were the two options that involve the deployment of US combat forces in Eastern Europe, as 11% of the respondents said that the United States should send troops to fight alongside the Ukrainians, while only 4% supported A US military attack on Russia if it invades Ukraine.

The poll showed that most Americans are not concerned about the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine despite the heated media coverage around the clock.

And demanded 71% of Democrats and 46% of Republicans, the Biden administration to conclude a diplomatic agreement with Russia to reduce tension and avoid war, and acknowledged that Washington should be ready to make concessions on its part.

Supporters of escalation with Russia

In turn, David Froome, a Republican commentator and former adviser to President George W. Bush, believes that there is a division between Republicans, some of whom see the need to support Ukraine, and those who have been persuaded by some right-wing voices - such as the famous Fox broadcaster Tucker Carlson - to attack the Biden administration's position, and repeat that Ukraine is a "corrupt country." In Eastern Europe, it is strategically irrelevant to the United States and its interests."

Carlson repeats that the lobby of the military industries companies and the lobby of contractors with the Pentagon are inflaming the conflict with Russia in order for their companies to benefit financially from any war or escalation.

Carlson accuses the remnants of the neo-conservatives who implicated the United States in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars of pushing the Biden administration toward an unnecessary confrontation with Russia.

Several former generals warn of the consequences of not confronting Russia firmly on the conflict and the greater threat to the United States posed by China.

Warning and refusing to escalate with Russia

“There is now, and has never been, a vital American interest in Ukraine to justify risking war with Russia,” a phrase echoed by Pat Buchanan, a former Republican official and a symbol of American isolationism.

Buchanan - who has worked in several Republican administrations since the era of President Richard Nixon - stresses that "during the four decades of the Cold War, Washington did not consider Moscow's control of Ukraine as a threat to the United States."

Buchanan and what he represents from an important trend in US foreign policy agree with President Biden's pledge to rule out military action in response to any Russian incursion or invasion of Ukraine, but they demand Biden to pledge as well not to invite Ukraine to join NATO in the future.

How does escalation affect Biden and his popularity?

At the same time, Biden warned that the Russian attack on Ukraine would "change the world" as it would represent the largest invasion since World War II, while ruling out any combat role for US forces in defense of Ukraine.

President Biden's popularity is experiencing a significant deterioration, bringing him to less than 40% due to his mismanagement of the consequences of the Covid-19 crisis, the economic deterioration, and the continued rise in inflation rates to record rates.

Biden has failed in recent weeks to pass several important legislation in his domestic agenda, which did not win the approval of all Democrats in the Senate, whose members are divided equally between the two parties.

The chaotic and humiliating US withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan last August had a significant impact on the decline of Americans' confidence in Biden's leadership and his handling of foreign crises.

Some observers believe that the Russian-Ukrainian crisis gives Biden an opportunity to improve his popularity and appear in the image of a firm leader in front of a great power like Russia. How to counter Russia's expansionist aspirations.