Presidential: the rallying of Woerth to Macron, a blow for Pécresse

Nicolas Beytout 11:21 a.m., February 10, 2022

EDITORIAL

A rallying that Europe 1 had sensed ten days ago: the former Minister of the Budget then of Labor under the Sarkozy five-year term, Éric Woerth, decided to support Emmanuel Macron for the next presidential election, while the outgoing president does not has not yet officially declared himself a candidate.

For the editorialist Nicolas Beytout, this announcement by Éric Woerth constitutes a blow for LR and its candidate Valérie Pécresse.

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Woerth, one of the sharpest on budgetary issues

The rallying of Éric Woerth to Emmanuel Macron is a decision of choice.

Woerth is chairman of the Finance Commission of the National Assembly, he is one of the most experienced parliamentarians on budgetary issues, as evidenced by his time as Minister of the Budget (and more briefly of Labour) to Nicolas Sarkozy.

But above all, Éric Woerth is a reasonable and thoughtful voice within the Republican right.

Since the rumor of his defection had been launched on this antenna, I had questioned several of his party comrades.

Everyone said: he's seriously injured in politics, he's fed up, he wants to take the field.

Failed, on the contrary, he leaves for a round, and it would be surprising if he remained inert during a possible second term of Emmanuel Macron.

A rally four days before the big meeting of Pécresse

This choice decision is a blow for Valérie Pécresse.

Four days before her big meeting, this important moment which must launch (or relaunch) the ascent of the Republican candidate to the Elysee Palace, it sure hurts.

Unquestionably, the undermining work carried out by Emmanuel Macron against the Republican right continues to do damage.

Its objective is clear: to blow up Valérie Pécresse's party as it blew up the left five years ago.

In government, this demolition enterprise is nicely called the work of reconstruction on the French political scene.

On the left, we can see that the ground is devastated: there is, in the polls of the moment, only one candidate with 9 or 10% of the voting intentions, Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

All the others are below the fateful bar of 5% of the votes (or just at the limit, for example for Yannick Jadot).

The great historic party that was the Socialist Party is dragging along with an unloved candidate at a painful 3%.

Worse, for the first time since the 1970s, the Communist Party is even in a position to go back to the Socialists.

Not by much (he points to 4%), but still, what a symbol.

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Why Macron targets LR, and is not interested in RN or Zemmour

The rights are still much more valiant.

We must say "the rights" because there is the republican right, with the aptly named Les Républicains party, and there are the two national rights, that of Marine Le Pen and that of Eric Zemmour.

These two rights do not interest Macron.

Its target is LR, that is to say this right which had survived the terrible defections of Edouard Philippe, Bruno Le Maire or Gérald Darmanin, five years ago.

And his point of entry is the fragility of the construction gathered behind Valérie Pécresse.

This right has been divided for years on the issue of immigration, let's call it the Ciotti right, and on a liberal and European vision of politics, let's call it the Pécresse right.

Emmanuel Macron's bet is to weaken LR (for example through poaching) in the hope that a new electoral defeat for this great party would cause it to explode, exactly as the PS had exploded.

That's how you should read Operation Woerth.

A possible reconstruction of the French political scheme

In the event that LR explodes, the Ciotti right would find itself flirting with the national rights, and the Pécresse right would make the same crossing as Eric Woerth or would find itself in a right-rump.

So obviously, all of this is still very hypothetical, and largely depends on who will be in the second round of the presidential election, and what majority the elected president will then have at his disposal.

But the pattern is clear: as one of Emmanuel Macron's main ministers says, the reconstruction of the French political pattern means, in place of the large traditional parties and a right-left opposition, the constitution of three blocs : a nationalist block, a decreasing block (i.e. the extremes) and in the middle, a vast center which oscillates between liberalism and social democracy.

No doubt, the big maneuvers will shake.