For several days, the headlines of major British media have been dominated by news of the same theme: Johnson, danger.

　　Since the end of last year, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been exposed to scandals one after another - holding a party in serious violation of epidemic prevention regulations during the "closure" of the epidemic.

With the voices of opposition parties and the domestic public, the British Cabinet and the police have been involved in the investigation one after another in recent days.

　　The "domino" effect immediately appeared: a number of cabinet aides resigned one after another; the government's internal and external policies were questioned; Johnson's wife Kelly was accused of trying to influence government decisions and caused "significant improper influence" on the country; Johnson's personal and Conservative Party support The rate has hit a record low, and the ruling Conservative Party has lagged behind the opposition Labour Party; MPs within the Conservative Party have defected one after another, brewing a vote of no confidence in Johnson and asking him to step down.

Johnson is mired in his worst crisis since becoming prime minister.

Johnson's 'biggest week' in office

　　The police investigation is still ongoing.

Regarding the "party gate" part of the facts that the police believe "does not meet the threshold of criminal investigation", the UK Cabinet Office's report on the preliminary findings of a special investigation released on January 31 believes that in the context of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, Johnson's government requires the public to comply with It is unjust and unreasonable to organize gatherings despite the epidemic prevention regulations, and it does not conform to the expected conduct of core government staff.

　　On the day the report was released, Johnson had to make a "belated apology" in the lower house of parliament, expressing acceptance of the findings and promising that the government would make rectifications.

However, he has no intention of leaving, and recently declared that "only a tank division can drive me out of No. 10 Downing Street".

　　Considering that the Conservative Party still holds an absolute majority in parliament, analysts believe that whether Johnson can keep his "black gauze hat" will largely be decided by his Conservative MP colleagues.

　　With Johnson increasingly characterized as a "political baggage" for the Conservative Party, the number of MPs supporting a vote of no-confidence in the party's letter to the party's "Committee of Ordinary MPs" ("1922 Committee") is growing and is said to be far from There are less than 20 letters to open the voting threshold.

Once the no-confidence vote is triggered, the balance will tip sharply in the direction of Johnson's inability to save.

　　"This week can be said to be the most important week of Johnson's career." The Guardian quoted sources as saying that the former senior adviser Cummings, who had previously turned against Johnson, may be concerned about "the Johnsons embezzling public funds to decorate the Downing Street mansion." More details of the incident have been revealed; police investigation reports into Johnson's "Downing Street birthday party" and "indoor gatherings on the eve of Prince Philip's funeral" may also be released this week.

Johnson's current move to reshuffle his cabinet may buy him some time to rebuild trust in his party.

Self-rescue measures may not work

　　Reorganizing the team is one of Johnson's most recent self-help measures.

　　Johnson has been exposed to plans to fire a group of officials responsible for the "partygate" scandal.

However, before the action plan was fully implemented, key members of the team set off a "wave of departure" earlier.

On February 3, four "right-hand men", including the British Prime Minister's policy chief Mirza, chief of staff Rosenfield, chief private secretary Reynolds and communications director Doyle, resigned on the same day.

On February 4, Narozanski, a member of the Prime Minister's Office policy team, announced he was leaving Downing Street over the "Partygate" scandal.

　　The resignation of five senior aides was a big blow to Johnson.

On February 5, he made two quick appointments: the appointment of former Cabinet Office minister Barkley as the Prime Minister's Office Chief of Staff, and his former adviser Harry as the Communications Director.

Johnson said the appointments were part of a "reform" he promised "that will improve the way the Prime Minister's Office operates".

　　The appointments were seen as uncharacteristically, prompting a new wave of skepticism.

"The Guardian" believes that "appointing a cabinet minister as chief of staff is highly unusual and may mean that Johnson has encountered problems in hiring outsiders as chief of staff", "Harry's appointment is also surprising, he has publicly criticized Johnson, There are huge differences between the two."

Labour deputy leader Angela Renner said that "it is clear that there is no suitable candidate willing to work under Johnson", and the new appointment is "a farce".

Probably in response to public opinion, on February 8, the British government announced a reshuffle of the government cabinet.

　　Diverting people's attention is another calculus in Johnson's mind.

But whether the "small abacus" can really succeed in the end, there is still a big question mark.

　　Since January 27, most of the restrictions on the new crown pneumonia epidemic in England have been lifted, including no need to wear masks in closed places, and vaccine passes are no longer required documents.

Some analysts believe that Johnson's move is intended to get out of a personal political crisis by creating an image of "successful epidemic prevention".

But in fact, since the mutated new coronavirus Omicron strain appeared at the end of last year, the epidemic situation in the UK has not been optimistic. Although the number of new cases in a single day has dropped recently, it is still at a high level of about 60,000 cases per day. .

Medical workers and scientists have been urging the government to impose tougher restrictions, but Johnson's grip on politics is waning and it seems difficult to introduce a new mandatory epidemic prevention plan.

　　In the field of diplomacy, the Ukraine crisis has become another "borrowing point" for Johnson to "unblock".

Unlike Germany, France and other European powers who prefer to resolve the crisis through diplomacy, the UK has been arguing over the Ukrainian crisis, sometimes even more radical than the US - providing weapons to Ukraine and preparing to send more troops to Eastern Europe, threatening to say "UK" It is ready to impose severe economic sanctions on Russia"; on February 2, when Johnson and President Putin had a phone call, the Royal Air Force dispatched fighter jets to track and intercept two Russian planes near the so-called "British Interest Zone". 95 long-range bombers and two Tu-142 maritime patrol aircraft.

　　"Johnson may be happier in battle-ready Ukraine than in London," CNN used the ironic headline in a story.

There's not much time left for Johnson

　　"No one knows what to do with Johnson." CNN reporter Luke McKee described the current embarrassing situation of the British government and the Conservative Party.

"Everything is bad, but no one knows what to do," he reported, citing a senior Conservative MP.

　　Even if it is only a matter of time before Johnson steps down, it will be difficult to quickly identify a suitable replacement.

Most Conservative MPs are more inclined to believe that it is not a good time to challenge Johnson, because even if the challenge is successful, the UK still needs to face the crisis of how to deal with the epidemic.

　　Before the preliminary investigation report of the Cabinet Office of the United Kingdom was released, the Guardian once analyzed that there are four possible situations in front of Johnson: first, Johnson resigns voluntarily within a few days; second, the preliminary investigation of the Cabinet Office Within two weeks after the report was released, Johnson was forced to step down; third, the above-mentioned report was not enough to be a "real hammer" to overthrow Johnson. Conservative MPs decided to give Johnson another chance, but the party's position in May this year was not enough. There will be a fiasco in the election, when Johnson will be forced to step down; fourth, Johnson will "survive" until the 2024 election - but the probability of this is very low and continues to decrease.

　　Some analysts believe that if the vote of no confidence in Johnson this week is not triggered, the possibility of the above-mentioned third "plot" will increase accordingly.

Then, the local council elections in May this year will be the most important node in Johnson's political fortunes.

If Johnson can't stop the scandal from continuing to ferment in time, or the UK can't "safely get through" the epidemic as he said, it does not rule out the possibility that he will be ousted from the Prime Minister's throne by the Conservative Party ahead of schedule.

　　Johnson, an atypical politician who once relied on "charisma" rather than policy advocacy to walk the British political arena, seems to be rethinking the issue of personal leadership.

Many practical problems are placed in front of Johnson.

Internally, in addition to resolving the scandal crisis, the UK's economic situation is more worrying than other European countries due to the combined effects of factors such as the epidemic and Brexit.

Externally, the domestic turmoil has begun to affect Johnson's foreign policy.

Affected by the situation in Ukraine and the "Partygate" scandal, Johnson cancelled a planned visit to Japan in mid-February - his first visit to Japan since becoming prime minister.

It appears that Johnson's "political clock" is turning hard on a countdown rhythm, leaving him running out of time.

　　This newspaper, Beijing, February 9th

　　China Youth Daily, China Youth Daily reporter Ma Ziqian Source: China Youth Daily