Armistice or permanent agreement? Vienna Negotiations on Iran's Nuclear Enter a Critical Phase

Al Jazeera Net

- In light of the ongoing tension and attraction in the Vienna negotiations, it seems that the Iranian and American sides are closer to returning to the nuclear agreement, after the progress made at the beginning of this year, and brought the file out of a dead end that almost ended it completely.

While the US State Department announced that the Vienna nuclear negotiations had reached a stage where the conclusion of the agreement became urgent, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian announced his country's readiness to reach an agreement in a short period of time and quickly.

Vienna negotiations continue and talk about a decisive stage to return to the 2015 agreement (Reuters)

fragile truce

For the first time, an agreement on how to return Washington and Tehran to the implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (the nuclear agreement signed in 2015) seems within reach, but some observers in Iran see what is being negotiated in the Swiss capital as a truce between the two parties. And not an agreement.

In this context, Mohsen Jilund, a professor of international relations specializing in the Iranian nuclear file, believes that it is not possible to talk about an agreement in light of reports that talk about its ambiguity and its implementation for a short period, stressing that the Vienna negotiations proved that the two sides reduced the intensity of fire towards the other.

Gilliund explained - to Al Jazeera Net - that after the recent truce, the Iranian side responded in good faith to the flexibility of American positions and its turning a blind eye to Iranian oil and gas condensate exports.

Therefore, we no longer hear a voice about Tehran's demands that Washington pay for the losses that the Islamic Republic has incurred as a result of the US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement.

He added that the commitment of both Tehran and Washington to implement their commitments would pave the way for the transition from a fragile truce to a long-term agreement, stressing that he does not rule out reaching an agreement during the coming period in light of the positive steps taken by Iran and the United States to overcome obstacles.

strategic policies

Gilliund added that the negotiations are moving forward in Vienna, according to the strategic policies in Iran and the United States, and that Presidents Raisi and Biden are the only ones who implement these policies, and therefore a breach in the pace of negotiations requires strategic decisions from the political institutions in Tehran and Washington.

Referring to the informal Iranian-American negotiations hosted by Muscat prior to the signing of the 2015 nuclear agreement, he expressed his hope to repeat this experience to resolve the outstanding issues in the Vienna negotiations.

Gilliund believes that direct negotiations have been included on the agenda of the two parties, and that the possibilities of holding them in the future are very high, especially if a two-month period is agreed upon in preparation for a final decision on the long-term agreement.

Despite the Iranian Leader Ali Khamenei's statement - earlier - to allow dealing and dialogue with the enemy when needed to break the impasse and resolve matters, some political circles affiliated with the conservative camp had strongly criticized the statements of Foreign Minister Hussein Amir Abdullahian, regarding the possibility of holding direct negotiations with Iran. the American side.

In light of the unofficial reports in the Iranian and international media about an Iranian-American meeting in Germany, a qualitative boost was formed in the Vienna negotiations, as all parties concerned with the nuclear agreement started talking about crucial weeks, while the Iranian side expected to reach an agreement before the Iranian New Year, which falls on the day March 21 next.

Iranian chief negotiator Abbas Araqchi (right) and European Union representative Enrique Mora at one of the negotiating sessions in Vienna (Anatolia)

security meeting

For his part, the Iranian academic and political researcher, Imad Abashnas, denied that his country had negotiated with the US side over its nuclear program in Germany, but he does not rule out holding a meeting between Iranian and US security agencies to discuss some security issues, including the prisoner exchange.

Abashnas indicated - in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net - that the draft agreement is ready, which bodes well for the imminent announcement of it soon, adding that the ball is now in the American court and that Iran is waiting for an American statement about Washington's decision to return to the nuclear agreement, lifting sanctions and providing guarantees of non-withdrawal. again from him.

The researcher Abashnas expressed his hope that the agreement would be announced during the current round of nuclear negotiations in Vienna in the event of an understanding between Washington and the European side regarding presenting a convincing proposal to meet Iranian demands.

Agreement Duration

Regarding the Russian proposal on the duration of the planned agreement, the academic said that Iran is only negotiating to revive the 2015 agreement in its entirety, and will not accept reducing or increasing its duration, explaining that talking about negotiating a period of time is related to the period required to verify the implementation of America’s commitments in the agreement to extract uranium. Enriched and advanced centrifuges from Iran.

He concluded that what is being negotiated at the moment in Vienna is about the time period required for Washington to implement its commitments between two and six months, stressing that there is great fear among the Iranians that the American side will violate the agreement again.