Can a war really break out on the border between Ukraine and Russia?

The scenario, feared for several weeks and having pushed Westerners to increase diplomatic time to find a way out of the crisis, could well become a reality according to Washington.

US Intelligence estimates that Russia is stepping up preparations for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and that it already has 70% of the force necessary for such an operation

Moscow has already massed 110,000 soldiers on the borders of Ukraine, and could have sufficient capacity to launch an offensive in two weeks, according to these officials who have informed the elected members of the American Congress and the European partners of the United States in recent days.

They said that US Intelligence had not established whether Russian President Vladimir Putin had made the decision to go on the offensive or not, but that he wanted to give himself all possible options, from the partial invasion of the separatist enclave of Donbass to total invasion.

A scenario of 50,000 dead civilians and millions of refugees

At the rate that the Russian military continues to strengthen around Ukraine, the master of the Kremlin should have sufficient forces for a large-scale invasion, or 150,000 men, in mid-February, they told American elected officials. and European allies.

If the Russian president chooses the most drastic option, he could surround Kiev, the Ukrainian capital, and overthrow President Volodymyr Zelensky in 48 hours, according to these officials.

They warned that the conflict would have a considerable human cost with the risk of causing the death of 25,000 to 50,000 civilians, 5,000 to 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 3,000 to 10,000 Russian soldiers.

It could also cause an influx of 1 to 5 million refugees, mainly to Poland.

But Russia denies any hint of invasion, saying it only wants to guarantee its security.

Bombers, amphibious vehicles and Spetsnaz massed on the border

Yet Moscow also announced joint “military maneuvers” with Belarus, where it massed several battalions north of Kiev and in the Brest region, not far from the Polish border. Two weeks ago, 60 army battalions were positioned in the north, east and south of Ukraine, notably in Crimea annexed by Moscow in 2014. On Friday, there were 80 and 14 others are in transit from the rest of Russia, including Vladivostok in the Russian Far East.

The Russian military has also positioned fighter jets, bombers, missiles and anti-aircraft batteries around Ukraine.

In addition, a large Russian naval force is amassed in the Black Sea, including five amphibious vehicles that could be used for a landing on the southern coast of Ukraine, they pointed out.

And six more such vehicles could join them, having been seen leaving the Barents Sea in northern Russia before rounding Britain and heading for the Strait of Gibraltar.

Some 1,500 Russian special forces soldiers, the fearsome Spetsnaz, also arrived a week ago in the border area of ​​Ukraine, according to American officials.

The United States said Thursday it had evidence that Moscow was preparing a fake Ukrainian attack video, which would be used as a pretext to invade Ukraine.

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