Madagascar holds its breath before the arrival of cyclone Batsirai
Meteo France forecasters monitor the passage of Cyclone Batsirai towards Mauritius, Reunion and Madagascar, February 2, 2022. AFP - RICHARD BOUHET
Text by: RFI Follow
3 mins
It is carried by average winds of 185 km/h and gusts of 260 km/h.
Tens of thousands of people are in its path.
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After Mauritius and Reunion, Batsirai must land on the east coast of the Big Island (between Mahanoro and Mananjary), between 11 a.m. and 5 p.m. this Saturday at the intense tropical cyclone stage, indicates the direction of meteorology in Madagascar.
While the Big Island is barely recovering from the floods of a fortnight ago caused by storm Ana, authorities and inhabitants are preparing to face this cyclone of rare intensity, indicates our correspondent in Antananarivo,
Laetitia Bezain
.
The Batsirai rains and winds could affect nearly 600,000 people and cause 140,000 to be displaced, according to forecasts by the National Office for Risk and Disaster Management.
Vassen Kauppaymuthoo, oceanographer and environmental engineer based in Mauritius, describes this extremely intense weather phenomenon, the most violent to make landfall in the Indian Ocean.
The wind is going to start picking up, the rain is going to get very heavy, waves of about 9 to 10 meters are expected, it's phenomenal, and with that, a storm surge that could raise the sea level by several meters.
When the eye hits late, this Saturday around 3 p.m., that's where the winds will be the strongest, 220 to 230 km / h and up to 260 km / h for some gusts.
After that, it should move inland on Sunday and lose some intensity.
It will cross Madagascar then strengthen again in the Mozambique Channel.
Vassen Kauppaymuthoo
Six regions and sixteen districts on the east coast and the Highlands have switched to a red hurricane alert of imminent danger.
“
An exceptional cyclone given the average winds it reaches
,” says Mamy Nomenjanahary, forecasting engineer.
When it hits the coast, the forecast wind is 195 km/h
”.
"
Almost the whole island is in danger
," warns Paolo Raholinarivo of the National Office for Risk and Disaster Management.
Nineteen regions out of the 23 in the country are on alert at different levels.
“
We must leave the risk areas immediately.
Accommodation sites are already open for everyone
,” he continues.
“
22,000
Madagascans have already been evacuated to these permanent centres.
»
On the east coast, the inhabitants consolidate the dwellings
Many dwellings are not very resistant to the winds, especially the wooden huts.
Clearing vehicles, zodiacs and members of the security forces have been deployed in the areas that will be impacted.
In the markets, the inhabitants stocked up on food and candles before confining themselves to their homes.
Some have reinforced their roofs with sandbags.
Activities are suspended, including land and sea transport until leaving Batsirai on Sunday morning in the Mozambique Channel.
Along National Road 2, the village of Ampasipotsy Gare, about a hundred km from the east coast, is preparing for the arrival of the cyclone, notes our special correspondent on the spot,
Laure Verneau
.
Tsarafidy Ben Ali installs sandbags on his roof.
Sitting astride, the coal seller connects the bags with a rope.
A D system to prepare for gusts.
“
This morning we heard on the RNM
[radio nationale, NDLR]
that the gusts of wind are going to be very strong.
That's why we reinforce the roofs
,” he comments.
Here, for a week, everyone is preparing.
Tropical storm Ana, a fortnight ago, has already caused a lot of damage, and 55 deaths in the country.
Etienne Razafimahefa is a farmer, he is afraid of running out of food.
"
I've been working a little bit lately and I was able to earn 2000 ar (0.40€), 3000 (0.66€) for today and tomorrow, but from Sunday, we won't have nothing.
We'll try to find another solution, but if there's nothing, we'll eat bananas.
»
Today, with climate change and this cyclone, we are quite worried because forecasting models can no longer give us these early warning systems.
When the cyclone passed on the side of Mauritius, Météo France gave an inaccuracy on the trajectory of 100 km.
It means we really didn't know what he was going to do.
With climate change, many parameters have changed in the atmosphere, ocean circulation has also changed.
There can be torrential rains in the north of Mauritius and 20 km to the south in good weather.
So these are smaller and smaller cells and unfortunately, the provident systems are based on a mathematical grid, small squares of 20 or 30 km, much wider, so they can no longer detect
Vassen Kauppaymuthoo
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