The French ambassador to Bamako, Joel Mayer, left Mali, expelled, after the leader of the military coup in Mali, Asimi Gueta, gave him 72 hours to leave the country, in a very bad development in relations between France and its former colony, which for many decades bore the name "French Sudan".
The new rulers of Bamako broke away from the French cordon, and changed the tone of the rhetoric to demand a review of the historical agreements with France, which they saw as significantly detracting from the sovereignty of Mali.
There is no precedent for this step in the history of the relationship between France and Mali, and there is no precedent for it also in the West African region, which France has - to a large extent - perched on its political decision and wealth for decades, according to a number of its sons, but it is consistent with a wave of popular anger towards France, which some Malians call "the Great Satan."
The new Mali is based on the "burning enthusiasm" of a young generation of the military who overthrew the late former President Ibrahima Abu Bakr Keita, and embarked on controversial political and international bets, amid fierce diplomatic and political storms.
The chief financial diplomat, Abdullah Diop, chose to inform the French ambassador directly, so he summoned him to his office and asked him to pack his bags, and prepare himself to leave Mali within 72 hours, in response to statements by French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian in which he said that the military council in Mali is “illegal.” and takes irresponsible measures," and other statements by the French Minister of the Armed Forces, Florence Parly, in which she confirmed that the French military presence in Mali could not continue under any circumstances.
African anger under the roof of discontent and competition
The step of expelling the French ambassador comes in a context of widespread anger and political and popular anger towards France, which bears historical and realistic responsibility in the eyes of many Africans for the continent’s political, security and economic crises. Paris - according to them - is a major supporter of the military coups, which aborted the emerging democracy on the continent. It also completely controls the African economies, especially in the CFA franc regions in West and Central Africa, in addition to its direct looting of African wealth in various parts, especially in the west of the continent, as they say.
The intensity of African anger towards Paris has increased with its increasing failure to establish peace and security in the Sahel region, whose land and space are roaming by battalions and planes of the French army, which is running more than one military operation in the west and center of the continent.
In addition to the rising feelings of anger towards Paris, it is also facing a growing international competition, especially from Russia, China and Turkey, in addition to the traditional competition between Paris and Washington for influence and sources of wealth in the brown continent.
From tension to estrangement .. Who will pay the price?
The course of tension between France and the financial putschists began in the first days of the overthrow of Ibrahim Keita. The new faces that climbed into the cockpit are not affiliated with France, but rather most of them are coming from training courses in Russia that were not long overdue, to be, after a few months, one of the most important international actors in the world. Mali, the focus of all discussions.
France tried to deal with the fait accompli, especially since coups in Africa are a familiar part of Paris diaries, but it is not uncommon for a coup to be carried out without coordination with it.
The rulers of Bamako turned away from the French embrace towards Russia, and concluded undeclared agreements, which allowed the actual deployment of the Russian Wagens forces in the Malian lands, according to Western statements.
The response from France and its allies in the region was not delayed, as the threat of sanctions turned into the actual initiation of them, especially the West African Economic Community, which decided to blockade Mali and close its borders and airspace to it, which France quickly blessed, and the European Union countries began to act accordingly.
France has multiple cards of influence in Mali, including, for example:
Military presence on the ground:
thousands of French soldiers are deployed in various Malian lands, in addition to a network of intelligence that enhances the military presence.
Close relations with the country’s public elite:
especially in the areas of politics, security, finance and business, as France remained the most important formative destination for the financial elites.
A strong and influential relationship with many
political and armed movements opposed to the central government in Mali.
Strong influence in a number of neighboring countries
, especially the countries of the West African Economic Organization.
These papers enhance France's ability to "disturb" the ruling military junta in Mali, and undermine its intentions to extend control over the entire Malian lands.
France has limited options in the face of mounting anger
Despite the many papers that France traditionally owned in Mali, it seems at the present time to have limited options regarding dealing with what was described by some as insulting or slapped by Mali’s putschists, especially since the financial decision came in the midst of preparing for imminent presidential elections in France, which It will require a level of waiting before taking a decisive step.
The most prominent of these options are:
Escalation and confrontation:
by responding in kind, expelling the Malian ambassador, declaring a break with Bamako, with the complete withdrawal of forces and Malian officials, and leaving the new authorities in Mali facing the wrath of the rebels and armed Islamist groups, and this option seems unlikely;
Paris has been mired in the financial mud for some time, and the economic and security prospects of its presence in Mali require it to manage the situation or to bend the relative winds of the storm.
Continuing political and economic pressure:
through the Economic Organization of West African States, the European Union and others, by betting on time and draining the financial system’s ability to confront the embargo.
Dialogue with the putschists:
either directly or through a mediator, and France has several outlets for dialogue with the putschists through Mauritania, Senegal and Morocco, and this option does not seem very unlikely, because it may contribute to easing tension and achieve for France to maintain an acceptable level of its interests on the continent.
Pushing a new military coup:
through its multiple arms in the army and the financial authority, an option that belongs to the traditional French literature in the region, according to observers of the African issue, and it is not excluded that Paris will submit to it if the pace of escalation and unilateral decisions by Bamako rulers accelerates in the face of the traditional ally and former colonizer (France).
Mali government options
As for the Malian government, which is benefiting from an escalating popular anger in Mali against France and its military presence, which has exhausted more than 9 years without achieving calm and peace on the ground, it has the card of the interior and broad popular support, as well as the card of the Russian back, which represents for it a strong and effective bond. And keen to consolidate its presence in the coast.
In addition, the wave of African coups strengthened the position of the financial coup d'etat, and showed the French contradiction in distinguishing between the Mali coup, the Guinean coup and the Burkinabe.
The presence of the French political spectrum in a state of electoral mobilization prevents taking decisive and final decisions towards Mali, and this would also provide an important opportunity for the putschists to accelerate and consolidate their presence and other international bets.
What then?
It is difficult to predict the next step, especially since the ceiling of the new rulers in Mali rises with each new step, as it moved from demanding a review of the agreements concluded between the two countries during the years of independence to expelling the French ambassador and declaring a level of estrangement.
Certainly, the return of the French ambassador will not be close, and it will be - if it actually happens - the result of hard negotiations between the two parties, or a radical change in positions and positions, if not as a result of a French coup carried out by supporters of Paris in Mali against supporters of Moscow.