Iran nuclear talks: stop-and-go prospects unpredictable
Recently, the eighth round of negotiations on the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue was held in Vienna, the capital of Austria.
Although all parties have reached some consensus in this round of negotiations, the United States and Iran still have major differences in many aspects, and it remains to be seen whether the negotiations can break the deadlock.
As an important issue concerning the security and stability of the Middle East, the Iranian nuclear issue has a long history.
In July 2015, Iran reached a nuclear deal with the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany.
In May 2018, the U.S. government unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, and then restarted and added a series of sanctions against Iran.
Since May 2019, Iran has gradually suspended the implementation of some provisions of the Iran nuclear deal, but promised that the measures taken are "reversible".
In April last year, the parties to the Iran nuclear deal started negotiations in Vienna to discuss the resumption of compliance between the United States and Iran, and the United States indirectly participated in the negotiations.
In the ensuing 10 months, the negotiations stopped and went through a change in the Iranian government and more than five months of stagnation.
Analysts pointed out that although the talks have been intermittent, the fact that they can continue to this day at least shows that all parties have a willingness to talk.
During the eighth round of negotiations on the JCPOA, Iran, the European Union, Russia and other parties released positive signals.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullahyan said the talks were moving in the right direction and "Iran's initiative has brought the talks back on track in a constructive atmosphere".
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also said that the negotiations have indeed progressed, "mainly because Iran and the United States do have the will to understand specific concerns and how to consider them in a package."
Although many parties have sent positive messages, judging from the current situation, there are still many difficulties in negotiating an agreement.
As a recent report by IRNA put it: “Analysis of the current negotiation process shows that progress has accelerated on less complex disputes, but there are still more difficult areas of disagreement, and the parties must 'Initiative and authoritative' to negotiate."
On the Iranian nuclear issue, the core demands of the United States and Iran are very different, and the question of "who takes the first step" has not been resolved so far.
Iran insists that the United States and EU countries lift sanctions against Iran first, and emphasizes that Iran will not bow in the face of pressure; the United States requires Iran to resume fulfilling its obligations under the JCPOA and restrict or freeze related nuclear activities.
Previously, the United States also proposed a new agreement to increase restrictions on Iran's missile program and its regional activities, which are unacceptable to Iran.
有评论指出，美伊都有达成协议的动机，但随着谈判进入关键阶段，任何一方“都不想显得过于急于妥协”。双方最近的一些表态似乎印证了这一说法。美方仍在对伊方施压。美国国务卿布林肯称，决定美伊能否恢复履约“仅剩数周”，一旦谈判失败，美方将同盟友一道审视其他方案。伊方则多次表示，不会迫于压力仓促让步。光明通讯社发表报道说，如果西方国家尤其是美国，更愿意采取明智的决策，而不是政治活动和虚张声势，那么就没有必要重复“时间限制”这个关键词。
当前，伊核协议相关方谈判已经进入“临门一脚”的关键期，这一阶段是谈判中“最乏味、最耗时、最困难的部分”，同时也是达成协议必不可少的步骤。一些分析人士指出，美伊双方如果要达成协议，就需要展现出一定程度的灵活性，尤其是美国方面。
作为令伊核问题陷入困境的始作俑者，美国一方面表示愿意重返伊核协议，一方面又继续对伊追加制裁，表现出一贯的蛮横霸道。如果美方不改变其强硬立场，伊核谈判前景难言乐观。
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