New to the West.
At least, in London and Washington.
The British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, has multiplied in recent days alarmist outings about the risks of a war in Ukraine.
He assured, Monday, January 24, that Russia had now amassed enough troops on the Ukrainian border to launch a "lightning offensive".
Over the weekend, the British government further argued that Moscow had a plan to install a puppet government in Kyiv, citing intelligence reports.
Washington also played the game of escalating tensions.
Joe Biden, the American president, announced that he was putting 8,500 soldiers on alert, ready to be deployed to Ukraine if Russia decided to start hostilities.
He also asked the families of American diplomatic personnel stationed in Ukraine to return to the United States.
Nothing new in the East?
But other countries seemed less alarmist… starting with France, which currently holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union.
"The UK has taken a very alarmist tone...and we have to be careful not to create self-fulfilling prophecies," said a French diplomat who preferred to remain anonymous when interviewed by the Financial Times.
Ukraine also did not seem pleased that Washington was asking some of its nationals to leave the territory as a security measure.
Kiev considered this decision "premature" and "excessive".
Russia, for its part, regretted the "escalation of tensions" of which the United States would have been guilty by putting 8,500 soldiers on alert.
Moscow assures, for its part, that it does not want to throw oil on the fire.
It is true that in the East, there is not much new "since the redeployment of Russian troops towards the Ukrainian border in the spring of 2021 which began to worry Western countries in November", recalls Jeff Hawn, Russia specialist at the London School of Economics, interviewed by France 24.
The estimated number of troops on the Russian-Ukrainian border has remained roughly stable since November at around 100,000.
“There has been no resurgence of activity that would justify the alarmist tone of certain Western officials,” said this expert.
These men are also generally stationed in barracks more than a hundred kilometers from a possible front line, he recalls.
Except that Moscow announced on Tuesday, January 25, that 6,000 soldiers, supported by around sixty planes, had started training in Crimea.
But there again, not enough to play the warmongers, assures Jeff Hawn.
"These are not large-scale exercises, and it is probably above all a response to the American announcement to put the 8,500 soldiers on alert," he said.
Military exercises from Crimea to Belarus
Above all, the front in the Donbass region - where Ukrainian troops are fighting Moscow-backed separatists - is particularly calm at the moment.
Too precisely for some analysts who have a darker view of the security situation at the border.
"If nothing is happening in a conflict zone, there is something brewing, and usually something big," said Glen Grant, senior analyst at the Baltic Security Foundation and specialist in the issues. Russian and Ukrainian soldiers, contacted by France 24.
"Moscow is currently delivering new equipment daily to equip fighters in the Donbass", underlines this expert.
In his eyes it is "not enough to ensure a breakthrough in this region, but it can serve to fix part of the Ukrainian troops while an offensive is organized elsewhere", concludes Glen Grant.
Potentially from Belarus.
It is along the 1,120 km border between this allied country of Russia and Ukraine that Moscow is now deploying new contingents of soldiers.
"Troops from Siberia are currently arriving there daily," said the Baltic Council analyst.
What give cold sweats to the inhabitants of Kiev who are much closer to the border with Belarus than that with Russia.
Admittedly, on paper, these are joint exercises for Russian and Belarusian troops that have little to do with Ukraine.
And "launching an offensive from Belarus would mean that this country also agrees to go to war against Ukraine, which is not a decision to be taken lightly for the regime of Alexander Lukashenko", warns Jeff Hawn, from the London School of Economics.
But between this redeployment of Russian troops in Belarus, the military exercises in Crimea, "the upcoming arrival in the Black Sea of amphibious assault boats detached from the Russian fleet in the Baltic Sea [planned between February 1 and 4], and the American decision to sanction Russians accused of destabilization activities in Ukraine, there are a number of signals that suggest that an armed conflict is likely to break out soon," said Oscar Jonsson, an expert on Russian military issues at Swedish Defense University, contacted by France 24.
Price to pay for Moscow
For him, Moscow cannot have decided to mobilize "nearly 40% to 50% of the mechanized battalions of its army - that is to say these invasion forces - simply in a defensive posture".
At this point, "the status quo is no longer an option for Vladimir Putin", adds Glen Grant.
Moscow is already paying the political price for a military posture perceived as belligerent.
It strengthens the anti-Russian camp in Ukraine, pushed the West to increase its support for Kiev and revived the debate in Sweden and Finland on the advisability of joining NATO.
For Vladimir Putin, only a military victory would allow Russia to come out of this crisis with its head held high, believe Glen Grant and Oscar Jonsson.
"If he decides not to do anything, it will give the impression that he has folded in the face of the West, whereas until now Moscow has always made sure never to give in to external threats", recalls Oscar Jonsson .
But can Moscow afford to go to war?
"Additional economic sanctions are too high a price for Russia to pay," says Jeff Hawn.
For this specialist, Russia is already suffering economically from the international sanctions regime, and if there were even more, "this country will be reduced to too great an economic dependence on China, which is incompatible with the status of 'a leading power that Vladimir Putin wants to give to Russia'.
The president would have every interest in maintaining the threat of an attack, adds Jeff Hawn.
It would be diplomatically more rewarding than launching an offensive that would only politically and economically isolate Russia even more on the international scene.
"February 20 is a key date to learn more about Russian intentions," predicts Glen Grant.
It will be the end of the Winter Olympics in China and "Moscow will not launch an offensive during this period so as not to upset Beijing," he said.
The end of this "Olympic truce" will also coincide with the end of military exercises in Belarus.
We will then see what will happen to all his troops transferred from Siberia...
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