"Putin's threat of war could cause fear to overflow"

The Armed Forces' strengthening of Gotland with the relocation of the operational contingency force's vehicles from I 19 in Boden, took place with the help of both police cards and the Traffic Editor on P4 Stockholm.

I am not a security policy expert, but I dare say that it did not directly frighten Putin.

On the other hand, perhaps one or two in the financial district in Stockholm.

Since the military began patrolling Visby's streets just over a week ago, the stock market has fallen by nine percent.

A lot is at stake

Of course, this is not really about the soldiers on Gotland, but about Putin's mobilization at the Ukrainian border, NATO's mobilization in Europe, meetings and statements at the highest level between the United States, Russia, the EU and NATO, in a never-ending stream of news.

There is a lot at stake, even financially.

If Russia invades Ukraine, the United States and the European Union could impose sanctions on Russia.

But it would not only strike against Russia but could also strike at economies in the West and not least many stock market giants.

The EU needs Russia's natural gas, and the whole world is dependent on oil, including that from Russia.

Great risk

It can get messy and it is above all much more difficult to assess than "ordinary" economic and stock market issues, such as inflation and interest rate increases.

In fact, it is inflation and interest rates that are the major risk for the stock market in the future, and which have repeatedly created concern since last autumn.

In the US, inflation is 7 percent, interest rate increases from the central bank are creeping ever closer, new information or signals about when is expected on Wednesday night Swedish time.

In addition, information is expected about the potentially shaky but necessary downsizing of pandemic stimuli in the form of constantly new money being pumped into the financial market.

Higher interest rates are generally negative for the stock market because they improve returns elsewhere than the stock market and thus attract money from the stock market.

Financial statements to wait

What still kept the stock market up is probably above all that the listed companies are generally doing very well, as is the economy, both in Sweden and in the USA, which is important for the stock market and the world economy.

But last week came the year-end report for one of the tech giants in New York, Netflix, and after that the share plummeted by over 20 percent.

The tech giants are so big that they control the entire New York Stock Exchange.

But this individual event in this individual company has nevertheless created an unreasonably large stock market turmoil.

Tomorrow it's Microsoft's turn.

That report awaits stock investors, not just on the New York Stock Exchange, with excitement.

But first it's time for Ericsson's closing on Tuesday morning here at home.

Then the big important listed companies report at a furious pace.

On Friday, Volvo, H&M, Telia, Electrolux, SSAB and all the forest companies will come at about the same time.

"Nervous and super doped"

Now the question of fine profit development is saving the stock market this time as well.

Or if the war worries and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike plans, along with the "old common" pandemic problems in the form of shutdowns due to omicrons, lack of components, and transportation chaos eventually become too much for the stock market.

The stock market has the peculiarity that it is both nervous and super-doped - by pandemic stimulants - now.

Admittedly, the stock market recovered a little from the slump of at most over five percent today.

But it is not unbelievable that tanks and cannons may be intimidated in the future as well.