“The situation is very alarming”: can we expect progress in the dialogue between Russia and the West on security guarantees

US President Joe Biden admitted that Washington will work out Russia's demands for the US not to deploy strategic weapons in Ukraine.

“He (Vladimir Putin.

) told me that he needed guarantees of two things.

First, the fact that Ukraine will never become part of NATO.

And secondly, that strategic weapons will not be deployed in Ukraine.

We could come up with something about the second, ”he said during a press conference at the White House.

At the same time, Biden did not rule out Ukraine's entry into the North Atlantic Alliance, although he stressed that the likelihood of this in the short term is "very small."

“This is due to the fact that in the matter of ensuring democracy and on other issues they have to do even more work, as well as with the readiness of the main Western allies (in NATO.

) to vote for the immediate entry of Ukraine,” Biden explained.

In addition, the US President once again announced Russia's allegedly impending "invasion" of Ukraine and again threatened Moscow with sanctions, which, according to him, it had never faced before, and "large-scale" consequences.

“We are in a situation where severe economic consequences are inevitable.

For example, everything that concerns the dollar - if they invade, they will pay, their banks will not be able to conduct transactions in dollars, ”he said, however, noting that this would also have a negative impact on the United States and Europe.

In addition, Biden promised to strengthen American NATO allies on the eastern flank in the event of a Russian “invasion” of Ukraine, noting that he had already sent Kiev “more than $600 million worth of technological equipment and defensive weapons.”

“We plan to increase our military presence in Poland, Romania, etc. in the event that he (Putin.

) really decides to act, because, in accordance with Article 5, we have an inviolable obligation to defend these countries.

They are members of NATO.

With regard to Ukraine, we have no such obligations, although we are seriously concerned about what is happening in Ukraine, ”said the head of the White House.

According to him, if the Russian Federation really does what it is capable of “doing with the forces gathered at the border, it will be a disaster for Russia if they continue to invade Ukraine.”

At the same time, Biden assured that he and the President of Russia "have no problems with mutual understanding."

• White House building

• AFP

• © Daniel Slim

It is worth noting that Moscow has repeatedly denied the accusations of the West about the allegedly preparing "attack" on Ukraine.

As Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova emphasized, such statements by Western countries are made in order to “create an information cover for preparing their own large-scale provocations, including military ones” on Ukrainian territory.

Meanwhile, the day before, Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg called unacceptable many of Russia's proposals on security guarantees, previously submitted by Moscow to Washington and NATO.

Schallenberg also noted that he follows "very closely" "every public statement" of his colleague, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“At the moment, their tone is quite aggressive, but I still hope that we will find a common language.

A lot of what the Russians bring up for discussion is really just unacceptable,” he said during a press conference.

Negotiation process

Recall that on December 17, 2021, the Russian Foreign Ministry published draft treaties with the United States and agreements with NATO.

These documents concern, in particular, mutual security guarantees in Europe and the refusal to further expand the bloc, including at the expense of the former Soviet republics, including Ukraine.

Russia's proposals were discussed during Moscow's talks with Washington in Geneva, as well as with NATO in Brussels and within the framework of the OSCE.

However, neither the United States nor the North Atlantic Alliance has yet provided the Russian side with a written response to its proposals.

At the same time, the United States and NATO have already stated orally that they do not intend to give up the opportunity to include Ukraine in the bloc and that they are not going to agree to the proposal of the Russian Federation on non-expansion of the alliance.

In turn, Brussels said that it is preparing its own proposals on this topic.

According to the head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, revisiting the European security architecture is “not such a crazy idea.”

However, he stressed that the dialogue on this issue needs to be transformed.

Earlier, Borrell noted in his blog, commenting on Russian initiatives, that “this way of delimiting spheres of influence in 2022 is unacceptable.”

The fact that the EU and the US rejected the Russian proposal "to restore spheres of influence in Europe" was also stated in a message on the website of the EU Foreign Service following Borrell's talks with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.

Nevertheless, as Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov noted the day before, Moscow expects to receive a written response from Western colleagues to its proposals on security guarantees in the coming days.

"They keep making claims"

According to experts, Biden's recent words at a press conference, as well as earlier statements by other Western politicians, indicate that the collective West, led by the United States, does not intend to abandon its usual tactics - "talking to Russia in the language of ultimatums."

“The West, and above all the United States, continue to generate claims against Russia.

Although Biden said that he would think about whether to place strategic weapons in Ukraine, Washington continues to saturate the country with lethal weapons, ”said Vladimir Olenchenko, senior researcher at the Center for European Studies at IMEMO RAS, in a commentary to RT.

He also appreciated the statement of the head of the Austrian Foreign Ministry, stressing that today Vienna "does not differ in independence."

“The current leadership is trying to act in unison with the Americans, and this is only regrettable,” Olenchenko said.

As for the US plans to increase its military presence in Poland, Romania and other NATO countries, according to Olenchenko, this does not contribute to a constructive dialogue between Russia and the West on security guarantees.

• Symbols of NATO, flags of Russia and the USA

• RIA News

• © Vladimir Trefilov

The analyst explains the unwillingness of the United States and NATO to provide written answers to Russia's proposals by the fact that neither the United States nor the West can yet reach a consensus on how to further build relations with Moscow.

“That is why they, out of inertia, put forward ultimatums in order to deliberately delay the negotiation process and turn the security dialogue with the Russian Federation into a sluggish discussion without a concrete result,” he explained.

In addition, Olenchenko regards the rhetoric of Biden and other high-ranking Western politicians associated with the notorious “invasion” of the Russian Federation as an attempt to “devalue Russian draft agreements” and disguise his provocative actions in Ukraine.

“Under the pretext of the Russian “threat” against Ukraine, the United States, and other Western countries, intend to further saturate Kiev with weapons, deploy military units on the territory of the republic, thereby pushing Ukrainians to take active steps against the Russian Federation,” the analyst predicts.

In turn, Vladimir Batyuk, chief researcher at the Institute for the USA and Canada, believes that on the issue of non-deployment of strategic weapons in Europe, including Ukraine, the positions of Moscow, Washington and NATO are "the closest."

“However, this aspect, as emphasized in the Russian Federation, is relevant only without separation from the provision on the non-expansion of NATO to the east.

Some agreements could be reached here, but subject to an integrated approach to the security guarantees proposed by the Russian Federation, ”the analyst said in a conversation with RT.

At the same time, according to Batyuk, it is already clear that neither the United States nor NATO "completely unacceptable" Russian proposals to refuse further expansion of the bloc.

At the same time, against the background of "such discrepancies in approaches" to ensuring security in Europe, the analyst did not rule out an escalation of tension in the region.

“The situation is really very disturbing.

After all, Russia may respond more harshly to the next provocation of Kiev, which may be mistakenly perceived by the United States and the West as the notorious “invasion”.

No one, of course, will fight for Ukraine.

But this can lead to even deeper disagreements between the Russian Federation and the West, ”Batiuk believes.

In his opinion, the escalation of the situation can be avoided if the West finally realizes that it is no longer able to "dictate its will to the Russian Federation without consequences."

“Moscow is concerned about its security and does not intend to play along with the Western countries, which do not stop trying to present it as an aggressor in order to strengthen their negotiating positions,” Batyuk concluded.