China Overseas Chinese Network, January 15th. According to the report of the US "World Journal", in the new year of 2022, what is the development prospect of the US retail industry, housing intermediary industry, and insurance industry, and what challenges will it face?
In this regard, the newspaper reporter interviewed professionals from various industries, looking forward to the new year, and made predictions on the development trend of the industry this year.
Retail: Enthusiasm for in-store shopping continues
The retail industry has experienced multiple challenges in 2021, including rising prices, supply chain crises, and the spread of the epidemic.
According to industry analysts, these challenges will continue in 2022, but the epidemic has not affected the enthusiasm of the public to go shopping, and the turnover of physical stores has not decreased.
Chris Lai, general manager of marketing at Tak Shing Hong, a supermarket chain, said that shipping costs will increase nearly tenfold in 2021, and with inflation, the cost of retail products will increase a lot.
He said it was difficult to bring down prices that had already risen.
He predicts prices will rise in 2022.
U.S. consumers' "short-term inflation expectations" show that the figure will continue to rise in 2022, from 5.7% to 6.0%, while income expectations fall from 3.0% to 2.5%, the former is higher than the latter twice as high.
According to a survey of U.S. consumer sentiment by Reuters and market research firm Ipsos, 66% of Americans think inflation will continue in 2022, while only 15% think the cost of living will decrease in 2022.
The supply chain crisis has resulted in a shortage of goods in the retail industry.
Chris Lai said that a lot of cargo is now backlogged at the port and can't get out.
In addition, shipping costs in 2021 will increase by about tenfold.
The shortage of goods from merchants has greatly reduced the discounts on products in the 2021 shopping season.
According to a retailer who did not want to be named, in terms of sales strategy, the retailer must launch discounts every year to attract consumers.
However, in 2021, there will be a shortage of goods, and the next batch of goods will not arrive on time, so merchants have to reduce the discount or not.
In addition, the new coronavirus variant Omicron is on the rise, and entering 2022, the epidemic is still going on.
But surprisingly, the number of people shopping in brick-and-mortar stores has not decreased significantly.
Chris Lai said that even if the epidemic has not subsided, many people still retain their enthusiasm for shopping in brick-and-mortar stores.
Every time a new virus comes in, the number of shoppers in brick-and-mortar stores initially declines slightly, and online shopping increases relatively, but after a period of time, the number of customers in brick-and-mortar stores will return.
Chris said that during the epidemic, customers living in Orange County traveled farther from Tak Shing in the Sacred Valley area, and some of these customers switched to online shopping.
Tak Shing Hong has a delivery service, within a radius of 100 miles, it can be delivered within 24 hours.
During the epidemic, hand sanitizers were stocked in the store, and employees tried to maintain social distance as much as possible. It has now become a daily habit to not gather together for meals.
Housing intermediary industry: overheating may lead to a period of consolidation
Since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the heat of real estate in Southern California has been off the charts.
Some real estate brokers said that 2021 will be the most prosperous year for real estate brokers.
The government lowered the loan interest rate, which led to a housing battle in Southern California, resulting in a difficult situation to find a house.
So what will the Southern California housing market look like in 2022?
What is the outlook for the real estate brokerage industry in 2022?
Some industry practitioners believe that depending on the interest rate increase in 2022, if the buying tide continues in 2022, the prosperity of the housing intermediary industry will also continue.
However, some industry players predict that the boom in the overheated housing market will move towards a period of consolidation in 2022.
Wu Chengyuan, an international course teacher at the National Real Estate Association, said that inflation has caused pressure to increase interest rates, and the overheated housing market boom will move toward a consolidation period in 2022.
The common feature of this wave of real estate investors is that they see the room for maneuver between low interest rates and inflation, which indirectly makes the performance of housing intermediaries unique in the downturn.
However, Wu Chengyuan also reminded that the increase in interest rates will have an impact on local real estate investment in the United States.
After the US government announced that many foreign funds, which had an advantage in all-cash, would adopt stricter inspection measures in accordance with national security standards, it may be inevitable that the period of real estate consolidation will be prolonged.
As we all know, low loan interest rates are one of the main reasons for the housing battle.
Real estate broker Chen Zhenglong said that in 2021, housing prices will be high, but there are still many buyers, because the loan interest rate is low.
Coupled with the severe inflation, everyone does not want to keep money in their hands, and actively wants to invest money in property, and the rush for housing is even more hot.
As long as the number of people buying houses breaks the table, the demand for real estate brokers will increase greatly, and the industry will naturally thrive.
He believes that as long as the interest rate increase is small in 2022, the housing market is expected to remain hot, and the demand for real estate brokers will not decrease.
Assuming that the interest rate rises, but the housing price remains high, there will definitely be fewer buyers at that time, and the performance of real estate agents will naturally decrease.
However, Chen Zhenglong said that the real estate brokerage industry depends not only on the environment, but also on its own strength.
Regardless of the housing market, real estate agents must have their own characteristics.
For example: fast and good service, peace of mind, and good selling price.
He believes that as long as you grasp the characteristics, understand what the customer group wants, and have the characteristics and advantages, the business will naturally come to your door.
Insurance industry: auto insurance home insurance premiums soar
In the new year of 2022, insurance industry professionals predict that various premiums will rise sharply, among which home insurance will increase the most, followed by auto insurance, and the upward trend is inevitable.
Premiums are rising and people's wallets are tightening, but what benefits and rejoices most Californians is zero-premium health insurance.
Kenny Chang, president of Huaxing Insurance, pointed out that according to the statistics of California comprehensive insurance, 70% of Californians will enjoy zero premium in 2022. Zhang Guoxing suggested that people who have not bought health insurance should seize this good opportunity. How long it will last, and whether it will last in the next few years, I don’t know, because many big taxpayers leave California, which will lead to a tightening of California’s finances and benefits will not be as good.”
Industry insiders say home insurance costs will rise sharply in the new year.
Insurance company David Lin said that California has been plagued by disasters in recent years. The fires in previous years have led to an increase in housing insurance premiums. The recent series of heavy rains in Southern California has made the phone call for housing insurance blown up.
He pointed out that in the past year, materials have risen, labor costs have risen, and home insurance must have also risen.
Zhang Guoxing believes that home insurance will have the largest increase in all insurances. California has more and more extreme climates. Except for natural disasters, prices are all rising. The increase in housing costs will inevitably lead to higher insurance premiums.
How can people get lower premiums for their own house insurance? Zhang Guoxing suggested that the owner should protect the house and avoid misfortune, "Of course good guests can get a good price. If the house is repaired every three days for various reasons, the premium will naturally be paid. will be higher."
In addition to home insurance, auto insurance costs will also increase in the new year.
Zhang Guoxing said, "Even if your car has not been involved in a car accident in the past year, the insurance premium will still rise. The main reason is that labor costs, car repair material costs, and shipping costs are all rising, and various costs have risen, resulting in car insurance.
David Lin analyzed that, in general, insurance premiums will increase when gasoline is cheap. Because everyone drives, and the number of car accidents increases, insurance premiums will follow.
However, he believes that the past year has been very special. Although gasoline has risen, many people have spent too much time at home for epidemic prevention. In the post-epidemic era, they have begun to consume retaliatory consumption, and the number of driving trips has increased, resulting in an increase in car accidents. It is foreseeable that in the new year, Retaliatory driving travel spending will continue, so premiums are bound to rise.
(Wang Ruoran, Xie Yushan, Shao Min)