The White House has prepared 18 different scenarios for dealing with an alleged "Russian invasion" of Ukraine, US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland said in an interview with the Financial Times.

However, she did not disclose details.

“I’m not going to preliminarily talk about 18 different scenarios ... I’ll just say that our allies and I are ready to quickly inflict sharp pain if Russia takes any step,” the American diplomat was quoted by TASS.

Against this background, the Russian Embassy in Washington refuted the statements of representatives of the White House and the Pentagon about the allegedly impending "invasion" of Ukraine.

The diplomatic mission noted that the American side is already describing in detail the scenarios of various provocations, naming the dates for the start of "operations", but all this is being done unfounded.

“Such a statement of the question confirms the ongoing information pressure on our country.

Moreover, the same scenario is repeated: a “sensation” is being thrown in, which then, repeated many times by the press, turns into the main newsbreak.

For our part, we would like to warn our colleagues against such adventures,” the embassy said in a statement.

Russia is against war.

We are for a diplomatic solution to all international problems," the diplomatic mission stressed.

Fake Generator

Earlier, White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said during a briefing that the Russian authorities are “preparing to invade Ukraine” in case Moscow fails to achieve its goals through diplomacy.

“As part of its plans, Russia is conducting preparatory work in order to be able to fabricate a pretext for an invasion ... Including through sabotage and information operations, Ukraine will be accused of preparing an imminent attack on Russian forces in the eastern part of the country.

The Russian military plans to start this activity a few weeks before the military invasion, which could start from mid-January to mid-February,” Psaki said.

  • Jen Psaki

  • AP

  • © Andrew Harnik

According to her, this happened on the eve of the events of 2014.

A White House spokeswoman said Russia had allegedly already trained a group of agents to conduct a “false flag operation” in eastern Ukraine.

“These individuals are trained in urban warfare, as well as the use of explosives to carry out sabotage against Russian puppet forces,” Psaki said.

Washington blames Moscow for even the appearance of articles and publications on social networks on the topic of the Ukrainian conflict.

“The information we have also suggests that Russian actors of influence are already beginning to fabricate provocations about Ukraine in state media and social networks to justify Russian intervention and sow division in Ukraine... For example, Russian officials and actors are focusing on worsening human rights situation in Ukraine and the increased militancy of Ukrainian leaders,” the politician said.

Among the "provocations" the American side includes "media stories" in which the West is accused of growing tensions, humanitarian problems in Ukraine are noted, and "Russian patriotism is being promoted" in order to enlist the support of the population of the Russian Federation regarding military operations.

“In December, the volume of Russian-language content on social networks devoted to these three topics grew to an average of almost 3,500 posts per day, which is 200% more than in November,” the White House calculated.

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby made similar accusations.

At a briefing on January 14, he said that the United States "has information indicating that Russia is already actively working to create a pretext for a potential invasion of Ukraine."

“Russian agents have already taken up positions in Ukraine to carry out a so-called false flag operation, which should look like an attack on Russian speakers in Ukraine, which, again, will be an excuse for an invasion,” he said.

  • The White house

  • Gettyimages.ru

  • © E4C

Earlier, similar accusations against Moscow were published by CNN, citing a source in the White House administration.

The material claimed that Russia was allegedly preparing a provocation in the Donbass in order to “create a pretext for an invasion of eastern Ukraine.”

This material promptly responded in Moscow.

As noted by the presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov, the statements contained in the CNN publication were unfounded and were not confirmed in any way.

According to experts interviewed by RT, the anti-Russian campaign being launched by the White House has no real basis.

“While conducting any propaganda campaign, Americans often act in a rather primitive way.

They simply attribute their own military preparations to Russia, trying to get her to justify herself.

But it doesn't make sense.

If the United States wants to complete its information campaign with some kind of provocation in the region, then the Russian Federation is unlikely to leave this unattended,” said Vladimir Olenchenko, senior researcher at the Center for European Studies at IMEMO RAS.

Konstantin Blokhin, a researcher at the Center for Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, agrees with this assessment. 

“Fakes are specially created in order to legitimize the actions of the West at some point.

And when everything is done, they may even admit that they were "wrong", as was the case with the story of the American invasion of Iraq, for example.

And now all these talks are just a pretext and a basis for increasing pressure on Russia, including sanctions, ”the expert explained.

In his opinion, if Moscow really had plans to conduct a military operation against Ukraine, they would have already been implemented.

“However, instead, Russia constantly talks about the importance of a peaceful settlement in the Donbass, but Kiev does not even think to listen,” Blokhin added.

Inconsistent position

Analysts state that it is Ukraine that over the past years has been sabotaging the implementation of the Minsk agreements and the process of peaceful reintegration of the self-proclaimed republics of Donbass.

From time to time, Kiev even admits the possibility of a military scenario.

For example, in January 2020, the Deputy Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (then Serhiy Krivonos held this post) said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine should be ready for the “forced liberation of the territories of Donbass” if an appropriate political decision is made.

The likelihood of this depends on the support of Ukraine's foreign partners, then the representative of the National Security and Defense Council added.

  • President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky

  • © president.gov.ua

However, only Russia is accused of aggressive plans by Western politicians and the media.

For example, on December 17, 2021, at a meeting of the Council on Foreign Relations, National Security Adviser to the President of the United States Jake Sullivan made the statement that the Russian Federation allegedly “had not yet made a decision” about the “invasion” of Ukraine.

However, according to him, the analysis carried out by American intelligence indicates that the Russian authorities allegedly "seriously consider such a step and are engaged in its operational planning."

Earlier, Joe Biden said that in the event of a Russian "invasion" of Ukraine, the United States would send its troops to neighboring countries - members of the NATO bloc.

Europe has also joined the accusatory campaign against Moscow.

So, in early December, Olaf Scholz, who at that time was still in the status of a candidate for the post of Chancellor of Germany, stated that Berlin was concerned about the situation on the Russian-Ukrainian border, and also noted that the situation “would be unacceptable if there was a threat to Ukraine.” ". 

In Kiev, they assess what is happening differently.

For example, in early November 2021, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense denied the information that appeared in the Western media about the build-up of the Russian military group near the border with Ukraine after the completion of the Zapad-2021 exercises.

“According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, as of November 1, 2021, no additional transfer of Russian units, weapons and military equipment to the state border with Ukraine was recorded,” the press service of the defense department said at the time.

They did not have data on the accumulation of Russian troops near the border and in the office of the President of Ukraine, which was announced on November 7 by Sergei Nikiforov, the press secretary of Vladimir Zelensky.

“The question remains why the American media disseminate such information, whether it is true.

But the president's office does not currently have any supporting information," he said on the air of the Dom TV channel.

  • Military DNR

  • globallookpress.com

  • © Alexander Rekun

However, Zelensky himself soon announced that there were almost 100,000 Russian troops on the border with Ukraine.

True, the politician did not refer to the data of Ukrainian intelligence, but to the information of Western partners.

And on December 30, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Alexei Danilov spoke with opposite data.

He said that Kiev sees no threats to open aggression from Russia, as well as a large concentration of the military at its borders.

dangerous game

According to Andrei Sidorov, head of the Department of International Organizations and World Political Processes at the Faculty of World Politics of Moscow State University, such contradictory rhetoric from Kiev speaks of the complete dependence of the Ukrainian leadership on external forces.

“Any statement that does not fit within the given course can be corrected in such a situation.

Kiev is simply forced to follow this trajectory.

I don’t know if anyone in Ukraine now understands the danger of such a game,” Sidorov said.

Konstantin Blokhin, on the contrary, is sure that the Kiev military and politicians are fully aware that it is the Ukrainian side that will suffer the main losses in the event of a real military escalation in the region.

“Ukrainian authorities are not in a vacuum.

All of them perfectly see the real political processes.

It's just that Russia, like China, is today one of the main opponents for the West on the way to retaining its leadership positions.

Therefore, a game without rules is being played with Moscow: the West is trying to use all the dirtiest methods in this competition, ”the expert explained.

At the same time, Ukraine can become a bargaining chip in this game in the event of an unfavorable development of events, analysts believe.

We add that in December 2021, the head of the Russian Ministry of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, warned that American private companies were preparing provocations in the Donbass using chemicals.

The presence of more than 120 employees of American PMCs in the settlements of Avdiivka and Priazovskoye of the Donetsk region of Ukraine was established, which equipped firing positions in residential buildings and at socially significant facilities, the minister said.

“The information campaign conducted by Washington is needed to justify some kind of forceful actions on the part of Ukraine.

It is clear that this will be a colossal mistake for her.

If an escalation begins in the Donbass, the civilian population suffers, the Russian Federation will not be able to stand aside.

True, a full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine is unprofitable for the United States.

Washington is using Ukraine as a permanent hotbed of tension along the Russian border.

Kiev politicians, in turn, hold on to power.

Therefore, a rather limited escalation is likely, as well as new sanctions against Russia,” Blokhin concluded.