Coping with the challenge of low birthrate: seize the window period and tap the second demographic dividend
The Paper reporter Peng Yanqiu
"From a global perspective, it is more common for the fertility rate to decline after economic development reaches a certain level. We should pay attention but not be overly anxious and nervous."
Shi Yi, an associate researcher at the China Population Development Research Center, said in an interview with The Paper.
Ren Yuan, a professor at the Population Research Institute of Fudan University, told The Paper that there is considerable certainty that my country will continue to maintain a low fertility rate.
There is only a small chance that the total fertility rate of the population will return to above replacement levels in the next few decades.
Ren Yuan further pointed out that if we realize the relative certainty of population changes, that is, persistent low fertility rate, persistent aging, and persistent population shrinkage, then we need to focus more on changing population changes and demographic patterns. What should be paid more attention is how to adapt to population changes to achieve good social and economic development.
The focus of population policy should adapt to the inherent laws of population changes, and prepare for the emerging low-fertility society, the developing aging society and the immigrant society with a large number of population migrations.
So, how should we prepare for the problems of low birthrate and aging that will appear in the future?
Seize the window of opportunity and make policy reserves
"From the perspective of people's life cycle, the population mainly includes the 'old and young' and the working-age population. It is necessary to 'catch the two ends and promote the middle'. At present, many supportive policies have been introduced at the national level to improve the quality of the working population. The two ends are vulnerable groups." Zhang Yaojun, a researcher at the National Development Strategy Research Institute of Renmin University of China and a professor at the Institute of Regional and Urban Economics at the School of Applied Economics of Renmin University of China, said in an interview with The Paper.
Shi Yi said that from now until 2035, there is actually a window of opportunity for policy reserves and resource allocation.
From now to 2027, there may be rapid aging, but it is mainly the aging at the bottom, that is, the aging at a relatively young age. Although the speed is fast, most of them are just entering their 60s, and most of the elderly are in relatively good health. .
After 2027, it may enter the top aging population, and the number of people close to 70 years old will begin to increase rapidly. "From the perspective of the healthy life expectancy of my country's population, the health and pension problems of this group of people may be concentrated at a certain point in time in the future."
Ren Yuan believes that the effect of trying to cope with aging by increasing fertility is minimal. First, it is difficult to increase the fertility level based on the law of population changes. Second, increasing the fertility level does not actually solve the rapid growth of aging in 2022-2035. The increase in fertility levels will increase the burden on the economy in the process of rapid aging instead of reducing the pressure on economic development.
"This further shows that we actually don't need to 'encourage fertility', but we already have the conditions to 'full liberalization' and 'independent fertility'." Ren Yuan said that the so-called active response to aging should mainly be a population that adapts to an aging population Changes, carry out relevant system construction and realize the corresponding adjustment of the economic and social operation system, including the old-age security system, the construction of the old-age service system and the transformation and upgrading of the economic development mode.
Shi Yi suggested that, using the window of opportunity during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" period, make good policy reserves. The most important thing is to do a good job in the overall planning and layout of health care service resources, including disability prevention and rehabilitation support. The establishment and improvement of service systems such as long-term care and long-term care, and the relevant evaluation standards, service specifications, and system design are all in place.
Zhang Yaojun believes that at present, the construction of the pension system in various places is gradually improving and developing rapidly, including the trial and introduction of various pension methods such as the combination of medical care and nursing.
"And after the current three-child policy is released, how to do it more scientifically and effectively? Everyone is watching while thinking. I believe that in the next few years, the shortcomings will be gradually made up, which requires a process. In short, support provides guarantees, from All channels and all aspects can make an organic effort and work together to do a good job of the old and the young." Zhang Yaojun said.
Tap into the second demographic dividend
Several experts told The Paper that in the context of a decrease in the number of births, it is more important to "make good use" of existing people and improve human capital.
Zhong Huiyong, associate professor of the School of Finance of Shanghai University of International Business and Economics and deputy director of the Institute of Financial Development, also told The Paper that it is particularly important whether the existing labor force can play a greater role. Better allocation of human resources, making good use of the existing labor force and reducing mismatches can also reduce the impact of declining fertility rates.
"The development of technology has made more and more production through automation. With the improvement of production efficiency, our demand for labor will also decline, which alleviates the problem caused by the decline in fertility to a certain extent." Zhong Huiyong added.
Zhang Lilong, associate professor of the School of Labor Economics at Capital University of Economics and Business, told The Paper that increasing the human capital of the existing and soon-to-be labor force through investment in education and training is to promote the transition from demographic dividend to talent dividend and to develop the second demographic dividend. , an important measure to actively respond to the aging of the population.
Shi Yi said that in terms of vocational education, the cultivation and training of skilled talents can be carried out. In addition, for the redevelopment of human resources for the elderly, we can try to provide some flexible reemployment and skills training in elderly universities.
According to him, in countries such as Germany and Japan, which entered the aging society earlier, the proportion of the elderly re-employed after retirement is relatively high, which can reduce the pressure of life to a certain extent and also have a certain positive effect on reducing the burden of pensions.
Zhang Lilong also told reporters that for the redevelopment of human resources for the elderly, we should actively develop the specialty of geriatric education.
In addition, there is still more work to be done in terms of the cultivation of vocational skilled talents and the promotion of social status.
"Vocational education has the characteristics of directly facing the labor market and employment needs. In the process of industrialization and urbanization, the adjustment and upgrading of the industrial structure brings about changes in the employment structure, which requires a group of highly skilled skilled laborers to support them. This needs to be cultivated through the development of secondary and higher vocational education." Zhang Lilong said that we should do more publicity and guidance to improve the social status of vocational skilled talents.
Employment discrimination against vocational college graduates should be prohibited, and the legitimate rights and interests of vocational college graduates should be safeguarded. If conditions permit, a system of skilled job allowances and special job allowances for high-skilled talents can be established to improve the economic treatment of technical and skilled talents.
smooth ascending channel
In the interview, some young people said that the "35-year-old" employment threshold of some companies will also bring about fertility anxiety. This anxiety is mainly due to uncertainty about the future, worrying about unemployment or resignation after the age of 35, and difficulties in re-employment. You may not be able to afford your own life.
"The 35-year-old employment threshold is the provisions and requirements of the personnel management regulations that have been carried over for many years, but it will not remain unchanged. For enterprises, with the reduction of labor supply in the future, enterprises themselves will also spontaneously and flexibly deal with such problems. Shi Yi said, "If government departments, public institutions, and state-owned enterprises can take the lead in adjusting personnel introduction or recruitment regulations, it will be able to drive the demonstration effect, and at the same time, the market will be able to solve the problem earlier and more flexibly. this series of questions.”
Shi Yi further said that another key point is how to open a smooth channel for the circulation of social classes.
He believes that the problem of low fertility levels is related to the social mentality of "lying flat" and "low desire".
"Therefore, provide young people with a more dynamic and promising upward channel, and reconcile the issues of equity and efficiency in the process of wealth redistribution. It is possible to increase the marriage rate and fertility rate." Shi. Yi said.