[Circle Time Depth] Ishigaki Island builds a missile base, and there is no small movement in Japan
[Global Times report] On the 7th of this month, the foreign ministers and defense ministers of the United States and Japan held a "Security Consultation Committee" (2+2) meeting, signed a new defense agreement, and discussed "strengthening the posture of the Southwest Islands Self-Defense Force, increasing the The degree of common use of military facilities” was agreed.
This is easy to think of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces missile base that is under construction on Ishigaki Island, which belongs to Okinawa Prefecture.
According to the plan of the Ministry of Defense of Japan, before the end of 2022, the missile force of the Ground Self-Defense Force will be deployed on Ishigaki Island, with a scale of about 500 to 600 people.
This means that Japan and the United States can jointly use various military bases in Okinawa Prefecture.
The local "Ryukyu Shimbun" commented that the strategy of the US military and the Japanese Self-Defense Forces envisioning "something in Taiwan" to conduct joint operations is becoming more and more clear.
The Japanese people are full of worries about the Japanese government's attempt to use the "first island chain" to contain China's small abacus. In the opinion of Chinese scholars, the "island chain containment method" is already outdated, and Japan's approach will also be asking for trouble.
Missile base "construction sound is very loud"
Ishigaki Island is adjacent to the Pacific Ocean in the east and the East China Sea in the west, with an area of 222.6 square kilometers. It is second only to Okinawa Island and Iriomote Island in Okinawa Prefecture, and ranks 21st among all islands in Japan.
Liu Gang, a professor at the University of Okinawa, has been to Ishigaki Island many times. According to him, the island is much smaller than the main island of Okinawa, but the scenery is very good.
Ishigaki Island has a circumference of about 90 kilometers and is characterized by many mountains. The island has the highest peak in Okinawa Prefecture, Mount Moto (526 meters above sea level).
Ishigaki Island, which belongs to the same latitude as Hawaii, is sunny all year round and rich in tourism resources. It is a paradise for diving enthusiasts.
For example, in the Shiraoka area, there is a clear and transparent underwater world filled with colorful corals.
In addition to beautiful beaches, Ishigaki Island also has the only black pearl farm in Japan... Ishigaki Island used to be unknown, especially for tourists from mainland China, it has long been hidden under the great halo of the Ryukyu Islands.
In the past few years, with the development of Japan's tourism industry and the rapid growth of China's economy, Ishigaki Island has gradually become one of the destinations for Chinese tourists.
Such an island with beautiful natural scenery also has an important strategic position.
Liu Gang told the "Global Times" reporter that the significance of Ishigaki Island in East Asia is not only a newly developed tourist destination, but also has special significance in geopolitics.
Although it is under the jurisdiction of Okinawa Prefecture, Ishigaki Island is geographically 410 kilometers away from Naha City, the seat of the Okinawa Prefectural Government, and about 2,000 kilometers away from Tokyo. In comparison, it is only about 300 kilometers away from China's Taiwan Island and 300 kilometers away from Diaoyu Island. About 170 kilometers.
In the past, there were regular passenger ships from Keelung Port on Taiwan Island to and from Ishigaki Island. Since 2010, there has been a charter flight route between Hualien and Ishigaki.
As the central island of the Yaeyama Islands, Ishigaki Island has a population of about 49,000.
On Ishigaki Island, according to locals, you can watch TV programs from Taiwan, China.
Today, it is the noise on the construction site that breaks the calm of Ishigaki Island.
According to Japanese media reports, the government’s planned missile base on Ishigaki Island is under construction. A Japanese netizen posted at the end of October last year that the noise recorded by a smartphone’s measuring instrument was 71.6 decibels.
The land used for the base construction involves private, municipal and state-owned land. A piece of land that "seems to be mainly a golf course in the past" was acquired and used to rebuild the Self-Defense Force base.
Japan's Defense Ministry plans to deploy a 500-600-person Self-Defense Force missile unit here by the end of 2022.
Relevant analysis believes that the Japanese government has changed from the exclusive defense of the past to active defense or aggressive defense, and will go along with the military operations of the US military whenever there is an opportunity.
According to public reports, there is an agency of the Japan Coast Guard "located at the southernmost tip of Japan" on Ishigaki Island, which is mainly responsible for law enforcement tasks in the southern waters of the Ryukyu Islands. It is considered to be a Japanese agency that directly "manages" the waters near the Diaoyu Islands.
The Japanese media once hyped that "Ishigaki Island may become the first island for China to seize the entire Ryukyu Islands".
In August last year, Japan's "Yomiuri Shimbun" and other media reported the news of the construction of military camps, ammunition depots, training grounds and other facilities on Ishigaki Island.
The report also said that the Japanese Ministry of Defense decided to add a new force equipped with surface-to-ship and surface-to-air missiles on the island, a security force that can quickly respond to armed attacks and large-scale natural disasters.
It is worth noting that Japanese mainstream media reports on the progress of the military deployment on Ishigaki Island are very vague, nothing more than "progressing", and no detailed information is given.
However, locals who hold objections often go to the construction site to supervise. From the photos they posted on the Internet, it can be seen that the site is quite busy, the general outline of the base basically emerges, and "the construction noise is very loud".
"Reaching the Diaoyu Islands with one hand and disrupting the Taiwan Strait with the other"
Chinese military expert Song Zhongping once said in an interview with a reporter from the Global Times that Japan's deployment of missile troops on Ishigaki Island is essentially a traditional island chain containment method and will not pose any threat to the Chinese military. "If a military conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, , Ishigaki Island will be the first target to be hit.” Japan’s missile forces are simply vulnerable.
It is worth mentioning that Ishigaki Island is also the base camp for many Japanese right-wing groups who try to land on the Diaoyu Islands.
In the middle of the night on December 14, 2003, seven members of a right-wing group from Tokyo set off from Ishigaki Island by boat, preparing to land on the Diaoyu Islands.
Due to the strong wind and waves, the landing on the island was unsuccessful.
Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe also inspected the situation of "maritime security" on Ishigaki Island, and told the maritime security officer to be prepared to defend Japan.
Therefore, some analysts believe that Japan's intention to deploy missile bases on Ishigaki Island is obviously aimed at China.
As the "New York Times" recently reported, Japanese political factions are concerned about China's dominance in the global supply chain, and have a premonition of "security challenges posed by a growing military power" that targets both Taiwan and Taiwan. involving the Diaoyu Islands.
In response to these remarks, Liu Jiangyong, a professor at the Department of International Relations at Tsinghua University, told the Global Times that Japan's plan to deploy military forces on Ishigaki Island has been going on for several years, with the intention of "targeting China" and trying to "reach out to the Diaoyu Islands with one hand and disrupt the situation with the other." Taiwan Strait".
According to Kyodo News, the basic policy of the U.S. and China’s “battle” is to block the inside of the “first island chain” from the Southwest Islands to Taiwan Island to the Philippines, the U.S. Kadena Base and Futenma Airport on the main island of Okinawa. , Baitan base will become an important attack base.
At the same time, the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force will also advance to "turn to the southwest."
Since the deployment of intelligence gathering units to Yonaguni Island in 2016, missile units have been deployed on Amami Oshima in 2019 and Miyako Island in 2020.
According to Kyodo News, in the new joint operation plan, the area around the Southwest Islands may become a battlefield, and Japanese stakeholders are also worried, "The Japanese Islands will become the forefront of the confrontation between the United States and China, and it will be inevitable to be involved in emergencies surrounding Taiwan. ".
Liu Jiangyong told the "Global Times" reporter that the deployment of military forces on Ishigaki Island is only part of Japan's military strategy.
In the past year, Japan has frequently intervened in Taiwan Strait affairs.
Shinzo Abe's younger brother, Nobuo Kishi, serves as Minister of Defense in Kishida's cabinet. He is the direct commander and participant in Japan's strengthening of military power, advancing the armedization of the Southwest Islands, and manipulating the Taiwan issue. pace".
Some analysts say that Japan is helping the United States to step up its "China containment strategy" in the Indo-Pacific, and it seems to regard itself as the "Deputy Sheriff of the Indo-Pacific" second only to the United States.
In Liu Jiangyong's view, Japan actually wants to act as a "sheriff" in three aspects: the Diaoyu Islands, the Indo-Pacific strategy and the Taiwan Strait issue.
He believes that Shinzo Abe dared to speak out openly, indicating that he believes that "Japan should take the lead" on these issues, because European and American countries are extraterritorial countries, and Japan should be allowed to play a leading role in the region.
The Japanese cabinet has approved the preliminary budget for the new fiscal year 2022 at the end of 2021. The overall expenditure is about 940 billion US dollars, of which the defense budget expenditure is about 47 billion US dollars.
The analysis believes that the Japanese government's increase in defense budget is on the one hand to "respond to China's increasingly strong military expansion and the tensions in the Taiwan Strait", and on the other hand to "respond to the United States' desire for Japan to strengthen its defense capabilities to cope with the ever-growing surrounding." Security Challenge".
People on the island do not want to be "abandoned stones"
In fact, the voices of the local people on Ishigaki Island against the military deployment have always existed.
Compared with other prefectures and cities in Japan, the anti-war awareness in Okinawa is stronger, especially the voice of resisting the re-militarization of the Ryukyu Islands is very high.
In the local newspapers "Ryukyu Shimpo" and "Okinawa Times", voices against the construction of the Self-Defense Forces base on Ishigaki Island have been heard one after another, and an organization called "Citizens Liaison Committee Against the Establishment of Military Bases on Ishigaki Island" has held parades and petitions many times. Signature Movement.
A young man on Ishigaki Island told Liu Gang: "The residents of the island are worried about 'whether it is necessary to fight against China for the Diaoyu Islands and the situation in the Taiwan Strait'. Others say that Ishigaki Island is such a small island that a single missile can destroy it. Are we making sacrifices for the so-called national interests? The government is deploying military arrangements in Ishigaki Island, Miyako Island, Yonaguni Island, etc., and even wants to be involved in the Taiwan Strait crisis, what is it for?"
Against the backdrop of Japan's economic downturn, there are also a small number of people who believe that with the construction of the Self-Defense Force base, the local economy can be stimulated and housing rents will rise.
Some local residents say that after the tsunami caused by the earthquake in Japan and the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, some wealthy people have moved to Ishigaki Island in recent years.
But it cannot be denied that the local people are worried that "war will bring disaster, and Ishigaki Island will be the first target to be attacked."
At a meeting of the House of Representatives Security Committee in November 2018, Okinawa lawmaker Masahiro Akane presented a document from an internal Ministry of Defense study.
The document describes: "If you imagine that 2,000 SDF personnel are stationed on a remote island, when 4,500 enemy troops land, they will still be at a disadvantage... If there are 70% of the SDF personnel casualties, it is not equivalent to Reproduce the 'Battle of Okinawa'?"
The Japanese people are not without reflection.
Shunichi Kawabata, a retired reporter from the Asahi Shimbun, wrote in the Okinawa Times in August last year that the construction of the Henoko U.S. military base could find the root cause of "people stop thinking".
Kawabata Shunichi said that the "U.S. military base problem" is a "disease" contracted by the entire country of Japan, and now many people have forgotten the vicious incident in which three American soldiers raped Japanese girls in Okinawa in 1995.
He wrote: Bases (specialized facilities) in Japan managed and used by the U.S. military are located in 13 prefectures, with a total area of about 26,318 hectares.
70% of them are located in Okinawa, covering an area of about 18,494 hectares.
From the perspective of the main island of Okinawa, 15% of the island's total area is occupied by the US military. "The roar of planes and training noises from military bases, falling objects, and the brutality of American soldiers against civilians are disasters for the locals."
In 1996, the public protests had shaken the security system of Japan and the United States, but now, the people of a country with a "peaceful constitution" are still being dominated by the fixed concept of "being protected by the United States", "really very sick." .
Makoto Konishi, a former Japanese air self-defense member and military critic, believes that if a Sino-US conflict occurs in the "first island chain", the Japanese islands where the missile forces are deployed will be the first to be hit, or even completely destroyed, even if the Self-Defense Forces are established on the islands. Refuge, nor can it protect the safety of all the inhabitants of the island.
This means that building a base for the Self-Defense Forces in the name of Japan's national interests and protecting the islanders is actually treating the islanders as "stones that can be thrown away".
Kawabata Shunichi also wrote that it is unthinkable and unthinkable for Japan to go to war with China, because the losses are too great.
In this context, the Japanese government has completely ignored public opinion.
Liu Jiangyong said: "Is Japan a country that respects public opinion? Military deployment is a national strategy, so public opinion is not important?" He explained that under the background of the so-called "consensus" reached by the Japanese society on the Diaoyu Islands issue, the more Those who have a tough stance will be able to gain support and then be elected mayors and councillors. The voice of opposition will not work and will gradually become unheard.
Moreover, after these people come to power, they will adopt a tougher confrontational policy against China.
Liu Jiangyong said: "Now it is not just about the Taiwan issue, but Japan's entire policy toward China has undergone a qualitative change to a certain extent." Of course, there are voices in Japan for Japan to consider the overall situation of Japan-China relations and not ignore the economic relations between Japan and China. importance.