Looking at the demonstrations and protests
Russia's intervention in Kazakhstan will not be without problems
Russian army vehicles leave Almaty airport.
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Tokayev asked for the help of the allies in the joint security agreement to ensure the security of strategic sites.
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In an article for Foreign Policy, I framed the decision-making process for Russian military interventions in post-Soviet states.
Within that framework, it identified five variables that must exist for Moscow to decide to send its military forces, which are: the specific motive, support from local elements in the intervention area, expected military opposition reactions, the technical feasibility of the intervention, and the expected political and economic costs of the intervention, such as sanctions, for example. .
Using this framework, I predicted that a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine was unlikely in the medium future, despite the build-up of military forces and hostile rhetoric from Russian leaders.
Interfering with friendly countries
But I also noticed that there is a possibility of Russian forces being mobilized and deployed in other regions, especially in “friends of Moscow.” And this week, I intervened in Kazakhstan, which is linked with Russia to the “Collective Security Organization,” where it deployed its forces there to quell the state of unrest which It started as a result of the increase in fuel prices on the second of January, and spread quickly, and turned into violence throughout the country. While the turmoil continues, and the course of security and political matters is unclear at the time of writing these lines, the timing and style of Russian intervention in this country provides an idea of Moscow's strategic calculations, and clues to what to expect in the broader region. Collective Security Treaty Countries
Russia's intervention in Kazakhstan is unique compared to Moscow's previous military operations in the countries of the former Soviet Union, as was the case in Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014. A unique feature is the participation of the countries of the Collective Security Organization, an alliance consisting of Russia and its most powerful security allies From the republics of the former Soviet Union, including Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.In contrast to the Russian operations in Georgia and Ukraine, the deployment of soldiers of the Collective Security Organization countries (most of them come from Russia, in addition to small battalions of members of the Collective Security Agreement, such as Armenia, Belarus, and Tajikistan), whose arrival was requested by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, and as things turned out Out of control, Tokayev felt the need to help allies in the CSA ensure the security of strategic locations, such as facilities, including government buildings, and airports, in major cities such as Almaty, at a time when Kazakh security forces focus on tackling protests directly. In fact, the nature of the multi-state intervention is a very important issue, because it provides the first joint deployment of the forces of the Collective Security Agreement countries in 30 years from the date of formation of this security bloc.In fact, the nature of the multi-state intervention is a very important issue, because it provides the first joint deployment of the forces of the Collective Security Agreement countries in 30 years from the date of formation of this security bloc.In fact, the nature of the multi-state intervention is a very important issue, as it provides the first joint deployment of the forces of the Collective Security Agreement countries in 30 years from the date of formation of this security bloc.
Russia's intervention to protect itself
But the rationale for the deployment of Russian-led forces in Kazakhstan has important similarities with Russia's military actions in Ukraine and Georgia. Ultimately, any Russian intervention in the countries of the former Soviet Union has its roots in Russia's geopolitical imperatives, in other words, to maintain domestic political solidarity, protect itself from hostile neighbors or outside powers, and deepen its influence in the region, while working to Reduce the influence of competing players. While Russia invaded Georgia and Ukraine, in order to undermine Western-backed governments hostile to its interests, the intervention of Moscow and the countries of the Collective Security Agreement in Kazakhstan, on the contrary, aims to support a government backed by Russia, which is a strategic ally of Moscow.Another issue is no less important, which is that Russia wants to send a message that it is ready to work to prevent the danger of these violent turmoil, in addition to political turmoil, from erupting and spreading to other countries friendly to Moscow, in addition to the possibility of them occurring in the Russian territory itself.
Russia acts quickly and decisively
Thus, the broader strategic rationale for the Russian intervention in Kazakhstan was present, and it is based on many of the elements that were previously identified in the framework. The reason for the intervention came in the form of protests storming public buildings, and support from local elements came from Tokayev's request from the CSCA countries to intervene. , which indicates technical feasibility, and that there will be no hostile response from the Kazakh army.
Signals from the United States and the European Union indicate that there will be no significant economic or political costs in the West's response to Russia's intervention.
As a result, Russia acted swiftly and decisively to immediately send the troops of the Collective Security Alliance, after Tokayev's request for help.
Without these factors, Moscow may decide to delay the intervention a bit, make it smaller, or even ignore Tokayev's request entirely.
Intervention will not be without problems
This does not mean that the intervention of the Collective Security Treaty countries led by Russia in Kazakhstan will not be problematic, and that it does not guarantee the success in achieving its objectives, which are to restore public order and support the system of the Kazakh regime. While domestic support for Russia's intervention is present at the governmental level, it is expected that there will be elements in Kazakhstan who reject it, including many demonstrators, as well as opposition figures, who have criticized this intervention and may decide to resist it now or in the future. In addition, the participation of the militaries of CSCT states such as Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia, all of which suffer internal social and political turmoil, could make them even more vulnerable to future political turmoil.And if the forces of the Collective Security Treaty, led by Russia, are not able to restore order and security in Kazakhstan, and perhaps in other hot spots in all the countries of the Collective Security Treaty, this will have bad and devastating repercussions on the reputation of the Kremlin itself, at the Russian internal level, and in countries The former Soviet Union.
big consequences
There are many pressing issues at the moment for the government of Kazakhstan, Russia and the CSTO countries, not to mention that the Kazakh public itself is in a state of protests and demonstrations.
Although Moscow has demonstrated its willingness to use military force to protect its standing in the former Soviet Union, such an intervention could have significant consequences.
• The nature of the multi-state intervention is a very important issue, because it provides the first joint deployment of the forces of the Collective Security Agreement countries in 30 years from the date of the formation of this security bloc.
• The Russian intervention in Kazakhstan is unique compared to Moscow's previous military operations in the countries of the former Soviet Union, as was the case in Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014.
Eugene Chuevsky is an independent researcher focusing on the political and economic situation in Russia, Eurasia, and the Middle East
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