A number of experts believe that the decision taken by the OPEC Plus countries (OPEC +) on January 4 this year paves the way for the stability of Brent crude prices between 72 and 81 dollars per barrel.

In a report published by the Russian newspaper Izvestia, writer Yevgenia Bertseva said that the OPEC Plus alliance decided, after its first meeting in 2022, to maintain the plan to increase oil production by 400,000 barrels per day in next February.

A number of experts from the Technical Committee of OPEC Plus assessed the current situation of the global oil market, considered future expectations, and did not find any justification for changing the plan to increase oil production in February.

After a quick round of negotiations at a ministerial level, the OPEC Plus countries took a decision to increase their daily production volume by 400,000 barrels, according to the writer.

And the final statement published by OPEC Plus after the ministerial meeting stated, “We reaffirm the production change plan and the monthly production increase mechanism approved at the 19th meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC ministers, as well as the decision to increase total production by 400,000 barrels per day in February 2022. ".

Frolov believes that the decision of the OPEC Plus countries to maintain plans to increase production in the pre-determined quantity reflects that they do not see any threats based on current supply levels, although the United States tried earlier to raise concerns by declaring its intention to rely on strategic oil stocks

In the OPEC report issued last December, experts indicated that the Omicron mutator will not have a significant impact on the global oil market, and if it does, it will be short-term.

Impact on prices

Alexander Frolov, Deputy Director-General of the Energy Institute in Moscow, says that the current situation sends positive signals to the market, adding that the decision to maintain pre-established plans can be interpreted as a reflection of the failure to record a significant decline or slowdown in demand for oil despite the current developments, most notably the emergence of a new mutated virus. Corona.

Frolov indicated that the recovery in oil demand is proceeding with the same previous mechanisms and the same volume that the market witnessed in the second half of 2021, which are very important indicators, as he put it.


Frolov believes that the decision of the OPEC Plus countries to maintain plans to increase production in the pre-determined quantity reflects that they did not see any threats based on current supply levels, although the United States tried earlier to raise concerns by declaring its intention to rely on strategic oil stocks.

A number of experts believe that, in light of the current situation, it is not possible to predict oil prices during the coming period, especially with the escalation of fears of a new wave of the Corona virus, which may impose a return to restrictions and closures, and thus a decrease in demand in the largest oil consuming markets.

Frolov says that any developments that lead to the growth of demand, the recovery of production and an increase in the volume of supply in the market will have a similar effect on prices, but if the situation continues as it is currently, it is unlikely that prices will change significantly.

And Andrei Loboda, director of external relations at the company "BitRiver", believes that the actors in the oil market were expecting the decisions that resulted from the OPEC Plus meeting, stressing that in light of the improvement in demand for oil, the OPEC Plus decision will benefit the economies of Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.

It is likely - according to experts - that the price of Brent crude will stabilize between 72 and 81 dollars per barrel in the first quarter of this year, while prices may reach 90 dollars in the middle of summer.

On the other hand, developments in the epidemiological situation may affect the behavior of investors, especially in light of expectations that new strains of the Corona virus will emerge, in addition to fears that OPEC Plus will take unexpected decisions.