To maintain relations with all players in the Middle East

Russia turns a blind eye to Israeli raids inside Syria

  • Russia refused an Iranian request to sell the S-400 systems, fearing that the sale of these systems would generate great tension in the Middle East.

    AFP

  • The war tilted in Assad's favour, as advanced Russian aircraft entered the front line.

    AFP

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Russia has deployed the most advanced S-400 missiles to Syria, but these advanced missiles do not appear to work against Israeli aircraft.

It is clear that it is an open secret that the state allied to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad allows Israel to carry out its air strikes against both the Syrian army and the militias operating in Syria.

The advanced Russian planes helped turn the tide of the civil war in Syria in favor of President Assad, but the question that many ask: Why does Moscow allow Israel to carry out its raids on Syria without any hindrance?

On December 28, Israeli aircraft attacked a container complex in the port of Latakia, a part of Syria, where Russia maintains its main naval base.

Those raids hit a yard believed to contain shipments of Iranian weapons, and this was the second Israeli attempt to destroy this shipment, and the first raid took place on December 7, but it seems that it was not as successful as the last raid that led to a major destruction.

On that night of the last raid, neither Russia's S-400s nor Syrian air defenses attempted to shoot down the Israeli planes.

In fact, Russia did not operate its air defense systems in the first place against Israeli aircraft, and it is believed that such Russian passivity may be part of a major agreement between the two countries.

After the Kremlin embarked on its military adventure in Syria in 2015, it reached an agreement with Israel, where it is said that Israel pledged to preserve the safety of Russian citizens and Russian military installations in Syria during raids against Iranian and Syrian targets.

In return, Moscow promised not to use its weapons to prevent Israeli attacks.

But why did the Syrian defenses not respond against the Israeli aircraft on December 28?

According to Kremlin officials, a Russian transport plane was on its way to land at the Hmeimim base, about 25 kilometers above Latakia, at the time the Israeli raid began, and accordingly the Syrian defenses were not activated to prevent the raid.

early warning

The Kremlin certainly wants to avoid events like the one in 2018, when a Russian reconnaissance plane returned to the Hmeimim base carrying 15 people on board and was mistakenly shot down by a Syrian S-200 surface-to-air missile.

Moscow blamed Israel for the incident, and announced that Israeli planes had placed the Russian L-20 in the path of Syrian defenses, given that it had not given the Russian leadership an early warning that it would strike Syrian targets.

There has been speculation that the L-20 was hit by an F-16, but even if that was the case, the Kremlin did not go beyond its verbal condemnation of the incident.

This tragic incident did not affect the relations between Russia and Israel.

Although the Russian army operating in Syria has the power to prevent Israel from striking Syrian and Iranian targets, Russia is trying to turn a blind eye to Israel's activities in Syria.

The attack on the port of Latakia was no exception.

Both the Iranians and President Assad believe the Kremlin is behaving like an ally, or an unreliable partner.

In 2010, Moscow refused to sell S-300 air defense systems, due to US and Israeli pressure.

In 2019, Russia rejected an Iranian request to sell the S-400 systems, fearing that the sale of these systems would generate great tension in the Middle East.

Even now, when the UN Security Council embargo on arms shipments to Iran no longer effectively exists, it is likely that Moscow will not sell the S-400s to Tehran.

The Kremlin fears that Israel can respond by providing Ukraine with highly advanced drones, as there are fears of an imminent war between the two countries, and accordingly, the Kremlin, which will not risk its relations with Israel, will most likely not work to deepen its military cooperation with Iran.

Finally, Israeli National Security Adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat said that Russia shares with Israel the view that Iran is a "destabilizing force in the Middle East", as he also stressed that Moscow's position regarding Iran is closer to Israel's view, although it does not Express it publicly.

negative attitude

Russia's negative stance regarding the Israeli strikes on Syria clearly shows that the Kremlin is not ready to abuse its relations with Israel for the sake of its alliance with Syria or its potential strategic partnership with Iran.

A few days before the Israeli raid on Latakia, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Israeli counterpart Yitzhak Herzog had a phone call to discuss bilateral cooperation.

Historically, Israeli-Russian relations have been linked to the Second World War, which led to the establishment of Israel and the immigration of Jews to live in it.

There are about 1.5 million Russian-speaking Israelis in Israel, and some Russians, known as wealthy oligarchs, now hold Israeli citizenship.

Given that Russian oligarchs play an important role in Russian politics, and that Moscow aims to maintain good relations with all players in the Middle East, the Kremlin can be expected to continue to prevent Syria from responding forcefully against Israeli airstrikes.

Syria is considered the weakest link in Russian-Israeli relations, and Tehran is in fact not in a position to pressure Moscow to allow Iranian-backed groups to use Syrian territory as a base to strike Israel. Russia will continue to maintain a balance between the so-called axis of resistance (Syria, Iran, and groups backed by Tehran) and their archenemy Israel, but the current historical relations confirm that this balance is likely to favor Israel.

• The Israeli-Russian relations have historically been linked to the Second World War, which led to the establishment of Israel and the immigration of Jews to live in it.


• Both the Iranians and President Assad believe that the Kremlin is behaving like an unreliable ally or partner.

Nikolaar Mikovic ■ A Serbian political analyst, most of his work has focused on Russia's foreign policy

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