Although some of the events in 2021 were not entirely predictable, others were the result of long-term trends that experts were already monitoring, and the future cannot be accurately predicted.
However, this does not preclude the identification of some trends that may have a significant impact on the future.
If we go back to 2021, we will find that a whirlwind of exciting foreign policy developments has swept some regions of the world: the Gaza war, a new prime minister in Israel, a new conservative administration in Iran, a coup in Sudan, a seizure of power in Tunisia, a presidential assassination in Haiti, a Taliban takeover On power in Afghanistan, to name a few.
With this introduction, Foreign Policy began an article asking some of its best editors and other collaborators to tell them about important trends, events, and elections to watch in 2022.
1- Uttar Pradesh and the future of India
Sumit Ganguly, a foreign policy columnist and political science professor specializing in Indian cultures, sees India's most populous state: Uttar Pradesh, meaning "Northern Province," preparing for a nationwide election, the outcome of which will be significant. Great for the future of India and its secular democracy.
The writer says that this state - which has a population of about 241 million people - will witness a detailed vote next March to elect a new legislative assembly as well as a new prime minister.
He notes that the current Chief Minister of the state, Yogi Adityanath, is an extremist Hindu priest who belongs to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party.
Although Uttar Pradesh has the worst social indicators in the country, and things have not improved since Adityanath took office in March 2017, the writer expects this Adityanath to win a new term.
The writer explains that this Hindu extremist instead of focusing on social and economic development, spent the bulk of his energy demonizing Muslims and other minorities and building more Hindu temples, and he kept accusing previous governments of pampering Muslims, as he squandered limited revenues on populist schemes, even in A time when the state is facing a huge budget deficit.
Because Uttar Pradesh has the largest number of seats in both houses of the national parliament, maintaining control of its legislature is an imperative for the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata government headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
To this end, Modi has spared no effort to work closely to help Adityanath and enhance the latter's electoral prospects, so in late November Modi, accompanied by Adityanath, laid the foundation stone for a new international airport in Uttar Pradesh.
As both Modi and Adityanath are ardent Hindu nationalists who share a common vision of ethnocratic India, the electoral outcome in Uttar Pradesh next March will be worth watching. There is a high probability that Adityanath will return to office, and his victory may pave the way for the victory of the Hindu majority's hegemony.
2- Lack of human cadres on the high seas
Recruiting more seafarers calls for special attention during 2022, says Elizabeth Brau, a foreign policy columnist and senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
She notes here that ships carry 80% of global trade by volume, and that 1.5 tons of goods are delivered to every person on the planet each year, which means that without sea freight we would not receive most of the items on which our livelihood depends every day.
She adds that at a time when shipping is experiencing explosive growth as a result of globalization, people are less willing to go to sea, or at least people in the West.
She says that there are currently more than 50,000 ships manned primarily by citizens of China, the Philippines, Indonesia, Russia and Ukraine, as well as India, and all countries, especially the world's most advanced economies, depend on their seafarers to transport vital goods.
Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, the shipping industry was grappling with employment challenges, so what if seafarers - who still have to endure longer-than-usual stays on their ships because the pandemic-stricken countries won't let them off - got tired of their work and decided to quit?
asks the writer.
Even if work leaves only 10% of their total number estimated at 1.6 million, the world will face massive disruptions in the supply chain, according to the writer.
She adds: For us ordinary citizens, shipping is out of sight and out of mind, and we don't care much about the lives of seafarers, but in 2022, the issue of recruiting and retaining seafarers will have to be paid close attention, as will anyone else who depends on their services.
How can people who don't get much attention among us make our lives so comfortable or so miserable?
3- Political developments in the Middle East
Regarding the Middle East, the magazine published the opinion of experts Stephen Cook, a columnist for "Foreign Policy" and Eni Enrico Mattei, a senior fellow in Middle East and African Studies at the US Council on Foreign Relations.
The two experts say that there are 3 issues that should be actively pursued in this region of the world during 2022:
First: To what extent is the rehabilitation process, which has been going on for some time, for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad?
The latter - which people expected in March 2011 to follow in the footsteps of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia and Hosni Mubarak in Egypt - is still present.
The authors note that Assad has serious financial problems, but with diplomatic contacts: with Jordan's King Abdullah II and then Emirati Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Assad appears to be emerging from his shell.
Here, they indicated that it is important to note that the administration of US President Joe Biden did not strongly object to the king's phone call or Al Nahyan's visit to the Syrian president.
Second: Observers question whether Turkey will witness premature elections this year, which the two experts strongly doubt, but they published this prediction as promoted by some Turkish experts, they said.
Finally: The two experts question how the Islamic parties in the region will respond to change, especially after their fortunes faltered in 2021, as the Moroccan Justice and Development Party was almost wiped out in the elections last September, and the Tunisian Ennahda movement suffered a major setback after the decisions of President Kais Saied last July, The Turkish Justice and Development Party (AKP) has also not been able to stop the significant decline in its popularity (although it still enjoys the support of a third of Turks), according to the two experts.
The authors comment on this by saying that observers should watch how the Islamists who are known for their long selves will adapt to their new situation, and how will they regroup after a year of setbacks?
They emphasized that this would represent perhaps one of the most interesting stories in the Middle East this year.
4- Euroskeptics and the 2022 elections
To analyze this issue, the magazine relied on Caroline de Grueter, a columnist for "Foreign Policy".
The writer says that in 2022 she will look for European politicians to win elections without criticizing the European Union, noting that one of the main problems the European Union faces is that national politicians are constantly using it as a scapegoat to win elections in their countries.
Grotter believes that Europe would be in a much better position if Europeans began to be honest when talking about the European Union and their large role in decision-making in Brussels.
The writer believes that the defeat of former European Commissioner Michel Barnier against his opponent, Valerie Pecres, in the elections for their party's nomination for the 2022 presidential elections, should be a lesson for those who believe that those who do not criticize the European Union cannot succeed.
Barnier, who had been critical of the Union, punished him by his own party by choosing an opponent who was not critical of the Union.
5- Electoral volatility in Latin America
On this topic, the magazine relied on Christopher Sabatini, senior research fellow at Chatham House, who says that the harsh economic and social impact of Covid-19 is beginning to affect Latin America, which was reflected and perhaps will be reflected in the wave of elections in 2021 and 2022.
The expert adds that the presidential elections in Chile, Ecuador, Honduras and Peru, and the midterm legislative elections in Argentina, Mexico and El Salvador, revealed a distinct flavor against those in office and even against the regime.
It is believed that these trends in presidential elections will continue in 2022 in Brazil and Colombia, where voters show high rates of disapproval of incumbent presidents - although the issue of Brazilian President Bolsonaro abdicating and accepting electoral defeat remains uncertain, as he may follow in the footsteps of his former mentor in the United States Trump .