The discussions about Russian demands for security guarantees from NATO are not only vital for Ukraine's existence. They are also causing unrest in the Gulf of Finland, which is geostrategically exposed. On Christmas Eve, the press department of the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that Vladimir Putin's demands to stop NATO's expansion to the east also affect Finland and Sweden. Sweden increased its combat readiness the next day. The news hit Finland too: The traditional media in particular discussed the demands with alarm, while social media showed tolerance towards Putin.

In Estonia, however, it remained silent. Political analyzes appeared only sparsely. Little evidence suggests that activity takes place in the corridors of power. The few voices that were heard in Estonia reveal a vacillation between defiance, courage and fear. Marko Mihkelson, longtime Moscow correspondent for the leading daily "Postimees" and chairman of the parliament's foreign affairs commission, expressed concern. The rest of the functionaries, meanwhile, praised the good cooperation with NATO and believed Putin's position to be unfounded.

At more than 1,300 kilometers, Finland has the longest border of any EU state with Russia and a long history of concern: After Stalin's attack in the winter war of 1939, it tried to irritate its eastern neighbor as little as possible.

Estonia's way never was: as soon as it became a member of the EU and NATO, Estonia allowed itself to communicate boldly with Russia.

The tentative political strategy of Finlandization is now seen as a disgrace in both countries.

Hope Finland

At the same time, it can be seen that Putin's message came as no surprise. The heads of state had long since taken precautions: even before Germany sent its new defense minister to Lithuania, Estonian government and parliamentary circles signaled at the beginning of December that they would seek support from Finland in view of the situation in Ukraine. This step is eloquent insofar as Finland is not a member of NATO and Estonia is at most a neighboring country in the European Union. However, the Estonian political class is unlikely to have high hopes for the Finns. Despite hundreds of thousands of private friendships between the countries, the state has repeatedly abandoned Estonia in the course of history and has concentrated on solving its own problems.The last example was the unilateral closure of the borders due to Corona, which hit Estonia's shipping companies and commuters hard.

Finland has now started to renew its air force: The F-35 fighter jets widespread in the NATO countries will in future also be flown by Finnish pilots. Estonia has interpreted this as a signal that Finland and NATO are moving closer together. At the same time, Scandinavia and other EU countries are demanding greater security policy cooperation from the Baltic states than before. The talks with the President and the Foreign Minister of Finland, which the Estonian parliament has been looking for in the meantime, show that Estonia trusts more in Finland than in Western allies.

The experience that their home countries on the Baltic Sea are divided and occupied at least once a century, most recently between Molotov and Ribbentrop in 1939, is too deeply anchored in the thinking of the Baltic for politics to ignore them.

In the end, the influences of culture and history are stronger than the persuasiveness of a lightning visit from Christine Lambrecht.