American scholar Denny Roy: Washington's policy toward Beijing was not completely packed for competition and deterrence
US-China relations may not recover one day
The virtual summit between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping in November was very practical.
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The Chinese People's Army is now strong enough to inflict heavy losses on US forces.
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Relations between the United States and China have witnessed a severe deterioration, since at least March 2020, when the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, Cao Lijian, blamed American soldiers for the spread of the Corona pandemic, and when former US President Donald Trump called “Covid-19” The name "Chinese virus".
Denny Roy, a professor of political science at the American University of Chicago, and a fellow at the Center for American East and West Research, Dr. Denny Roy, says in a report published by the "National Interest" magazine, that after nearly two years, observers are justified in looking for the first signs of a recovery in relations, in which he admits The two sides value cooperation and the dangers of unbridled tensions, but their search may be in vain.
After top US and Chinese officials held a controversial meeting in Texas in March 2021, the virtual summit between US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in November was a very practical one.
However, the summit did not result in the desired progress by de-escalating tensions.
military pressure
In the days following the summit, Chinese warplanes continued to fly around Taiwan, continuing a month-long military pressure campaign.
Similarly, the Biden administration announced a boycott of the Winter Games hosted by Beijing, and Biden held a summit for democracy, all of which were harshly criticized by the Chinese government.
Roy says that this mutual behavior is not unusual. US-Chinese relations in the post-Mao Zedong era generally followed a cyclical pattern, with setbacks followed by periods of recovery. The Tiananmen massacre in June 1989 prompted Washington to criticize China, Sanctions were imposed, to which Beijing responded angrily, yet most sanctions were quickly lifted or never implemented.
China retained its commercial status as the most favored country, and trade between America and China flourished in the 1990s.
Another example is the collision of an American surveillance plane with a Chinese fighter plane over international waters near Hainan Island in 2001, which caused the death of a Chinese pilot, led to the temporary detention of the American crew, and was behind a bilateral crisis, and each side blamed the other for the collision.
Yet four years later, senior US officials said US-China relations are at their best in three decades.
Fortunately, Roy says, the two-way pullbacks were short.
Historically, there is consensus in both countries that maintaining a constructive relationship is worth enduring a few adverse developments, but recovery from the downturn for now is less certain, because the underlying conditions affecting US-China relations have changed.
American feature
Until recently, America enjoyed an enormous advantage over China in military and economic power, and this contributed to stable relations.
To illustrate, China could not do much harm to America, and so Washington had the opportunity to take a flexible approach to China's military build-up, the early years of China's growing trade surplus with America, China's claims to the South China Sea, and the constant threat of Taiwan's reunification with it. By force, China's violations of international obligations, and consequently, US policy toward China was not entirely packed with competition and deterrence, but it did include efforts to encourage China's integration into international organizations and systems, with the aim of avoiding the appearance of "treating China as an enemy."
For Beijing, the imbalance of power, which remained largely in America's interest in the post-Cold War era, meant that it was inconceivable that China would directly challenge Washington's strategic position in East Asia, or impose Beijing's will on marginal countries acting against the agenda China, under the guise of the regional order sponsored by America.
As Deng Xiaoping, the architect of China's foreign policy reform, directed, it was an opportune time for China to build its power through trade and investment with America, and avoid confrontation unless America threatened a vital Chinese interest.
Before Xi took the helm, Beijing had seemed wary of any policies that might push other countries to form an anti-China defense alliance, all of which assuaged Washington's concerns about certain Chinese intentions.
However, Roy says, this difference in strength has greatly diminished for the time being, and although China is not militarily stronger than America, the Chinese People's Army is now strong enough to inflict heavy losses on American forces in any scenario in which American forces try to deprive the Chinese of A military victory in the region, and the great economic importance of China provides it with a strategic advantage.
Beijing can use its trade as a weapon, to compel countries traditionally not loyal to China to support its goals in political disputes, and what is even more worrisome is the fact that China has a logical opportunity to seize leadership in the development of essential future technologies, such as artificial intelligence and green energy production, and advanced medicines.
peer competitor
Rui stressed that China's approach to the level of peer competitor reshapes the relations between the two countries.
Washington now considers China a potential adversary, not a future one.
Preparing for a possible war, and avoiding cooperation that might be in the interest of China's strategic position, has become a matter of urgent concern to America, and this hostile approach prevents any return to the historical type of relations that prevailed before America lost its strategic power.
Moreover, the domestic political atmosphere in the two countries is increasingly hostile to any return to the old bilateral normality.
Roy concludes his report by saying that the resurgence of a capacity gap between China and America is likely to reduce bilateral strategic competition, and pave the way for more cooperative relations, and will be the most likely cause of an economic crisis or political turmoil, prompting America or China to withdraw from competition, in the same way that the former Soviet Union withdrew from the Cold War.
• America has enjoyed a huge advantage over China in military and economic power, and this has contributed to the availability of stable relations.
• Historically, there is a consensus in the two countries that maintaining a constructive relationship is worth enduring a few adverse developments, but recovery from the decline at the present time is less certain, because the basic conditions affecting US-Chinese relations have changed.
• Beijing can use its trade as a weapon, to compel countries traditionally not loyal to China to support its objectives in political disputes, and even more worrisome is the fact that China has a reasonable opportunity to seize leadership in developing key future technologies.
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