The Government of the PP and Cs in Andalusia: anatomy of a pressure-proof pact

• Poll Juanma Moreno would win the elections in Andalusia today but his investiture would once again be in the hands of Vox

• Politics Demobilization worries Citizens after the primaries in Andalusia

Summer 2018. The legislature advanced in Andalusia in fits and starts after the failure of Susana Díaz in the socialist primaries against Pedro Sánchez and the members of Ciudadanos began to show their nervousness because the Socialist Government of the Junta had barely advanced in the agreements of the pact of investment.

Juanma Moreno's PP was tempted by the idea of ​​raising the tone of his speech against the

deputies

, whom they pointed to as accomplices in propping up a declining regime with their votes. Or, as Teresa Rodríguez would say, they had become the stick of the old age of the Andalusian PSOE. "But, Juan Marín, we must

" insisted with some sarcasm in the PP, convinced that, if they had any chance of finding a partner to govern one day, that should be Marín.

Soon, Susana Díaz pressed the

and the PP, as had been predicted, found in the leader of Cs not only a marriage of convenience, but a travel companion with whom coexistence has been especially easy. So much so that the coalition government in Andalusia has already become a

in a political ecosystem in which betrayal is the usual pattern of operation.

There are several factors that have facilitated this climate of mutual trust, but the main one has to do with the special

that led to the government agreement: the PP, with mediocre electoral results, was faced with the first mathematical opportunity in the history of the autonomy of reaching the Presidency of the Board.

The

made it possible to diversify the offer and removed many former popular voters from resigned abstention.

And the

caused a symptomatic demobilization of the left.

Drive for change

This situation was interpreted as a drive for change after 37 years of uninterrupted governments of the PSOE, which none of the main actors could ignore. In other words, the pact of the three rights was possible because there was political will. But also the signatories had no alternative. The

in favor of change. That was the engine of the agreement. And that is the glue that has kept the

solid

.

To such an extent it has been so that the

in Ciudadanos - which there have been, and many - have not translated at any time into a fracture of the unity of the vote in the parliamentary group. The

of Cs question the internal leadership of Juan Marin or management of the party. But the advisability of the coalition pact or the performance of the councilors on the Board has never been questioned. For this reason, when the PSOE probed the possibility of a censure motion, it did not find the support it would have needed to raise it.

Because, deep down, the idea that Andalusia needed to explore political alternation found its way into many social and economic spheres as a need for

.

And that motivation is exclusive to Andalusia and has nothing to do with the one that promoted the agreements in

, where the PP was already ruling before the alliance with Ciudadanos.

In these territories, the PP considered the agreements as a lesser evil and not as an opportunity.

Matter of mood

Therefore, there were no problems with the transfer of powers or with the placement of their own personnel, since all the

were released in the position and there were no personnel to relocate from previous stages.

Nor is it negligible the fact that both Juanma Moreno and Juan Marín have a spirit that favors

and agreement. Forms are almost everything in politics. And, in three years of the coalition government, not a single serious gesture of confrontation or disagreement has been seen in public.

The few tensions have been resolved in private. As when Marín insisted on making a government crisis with the supposed intention of dispensing with the Minister of Equality and Social Policies,

, who is considered a benchmark in the critical sector of Cs. The vice president of the Board was not happy either with the distribution of powers in a government that insisted on restricting the

, which forced the accumulation of functions. Finally, the internal conflict was redirected in Ciudadanos, with the mediation of Inés Arrimadas, and the expansion of the Government, which the PP did not see as appropriate, only affected the second tier.

The tendency of Marín to transfer to the public debate issues that are uncomfortable for the popular ones or that should not be aired too soon, such as the possibility of an electoral alliance or

has also generated some discomfort in the PP

. The PP is limited in these cases to respond with evasions or by kicking the ball forward without going into the bottom line.

The greatest difficulty among the partners occurred, despite everything, after

of Juan Marín, pronounced in private, in which he despised the negotiation of the

2022

with the PSOE. That

ended up frustrating the conversations between the Ministry of Finance and the socialist group. The PP, deep down, is convinced that, when those statements were known, the PSOE had already decided to abandon the negotiation. In any case, Marín pointed to the former Cs senator,

, and the national leadership of the PP as responsible for the leak, causing a new crisis between Genoa and the PP-A, which forced

to intervene to temper spirits.

But not even that episode has undermined the relationship, as demonstrated during the parliamentary debate in which the budget law was rejected, where the partners once again made a public display of the

government's

.

Character

Just as Isabel Díaz Ayuso has built a character of herself that has worked for her at the polls, with a very different personal style, Juanma Moreno also shapes a calculated image of

, bonhomie and politician on

a daily basis

, above the tricks of the parties. And it works for him. Dismissing its partners through a tweet (as the president of Castilla y León has done) or launching a hostile bid against Ciudadanos does not match that profile so studied. If Moreno finally opts for an

, he will do so in agreement with his Ciudadanos partners. Any other scenario would betray the story that the Andalusian PP has been writing for months by the end of the legislature. If the Government of the Junta has been selling the Andalusia brand for three years as a

, the last thing you need is to get on the Ferris wheel of tactic over-performance.

Andalusia is an island in an ocean of turbulence.

That has been his great argument during the legislature and that will be his letter of introduction when it comes to going to the polls again: in June or October.

Save Cs

Juanma Moreno's determination to exhaust the legislature is another element of stability.

Because Ciudadanos wants to move away as long as possible the time to go back to the polls, which is the only way to try to overcome the deep crisis that the party is going through.

For the PP, the electoral recovery of Cs is also strategic, because it needs their votes so as not to be left in the hands of Vox, given the scarce possibilities of reaching an

. The possibility that the votes of Ciudadanos - no matter how many or few they are - get lost in the cracks of the

and do not translate into seats worries in the PP. Hence, the path of a joint list is not just a dream of Juan Marín. The debate is on the table despite what the national leadership thinks. We would be talking, in any case, of an agreed fusion, far removed from the bellicose ways in which Genoa intends to end the Arrimadas party.

The incorporation of some

to a project piloted by the PP would take place without trauma.

To begin with, because two of them do not even have an orange card, since they joined the Government as independents.

They are

.

The latter has recently incorporated a PP advisor into its cabinet.

In other words, the symbiosis arises almost as the natural evolution of a process initiated during the legislature.

Faffe and other legislative emergencies

Before the term ends, the investigative commission on Faffe, the foundation created by the Junta during the PSOE stage, which functioned as a placement agency for close associates of prominent socialists, should be closed.

In addition, the former director general of this entity spent public money in brothels with

cards

of this body.

Parliament gave the green light to the Faffe commission on February 25, 2019, within the first hundred days of the PP and Cs Government that ended almost four decades of the PSOE.

This investigation was a priority of the new Executive.

The works have lasted throughout the legislature.

The Andalusian Government also wants to carry out a legislative package before the elections are held.

These are the laws of Early Attention, Circular Economy and Public Function.

These are three laws that are already well advanced in their preparation and are key for the next session.

This December, the Andalusian Parliament approved the law that regulates the Trade agency and the decree law of administrative simplification.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

Know more

• PP

• Citizens

• Andalusia

• Juan Marin

• PSOE

• Susana diaz

• Vox

• Isabel Diaz Ayuso

• Ines Arrimadas

• Castile and Leon

• Murcia

• Madrid

• Teresa Rodriguez

• Pedro Sanchez

• Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla

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