Ukraine expert: Kiev still insists on continuing Euro-Atlantic integration
Ukraine is steadfast, and its allies must harden their positions
Putin and his military team have a lot of cards to put pressure on Ukraine.
dad
Maneuvers with tanks and artillery carried out by the Ukrainian army in preparation for the possibility of fighting.
dad
A Russian tank is on standby in the Rostov region bordering Ukraine.
Reuters
picture
Russian President Vladimir Putin, trying to assert a greater ambition on the European continent, appears to be running out of patience with Ukraine.
The proxy war in the Donbass has caused a great deal of suffering to its citizens, but it has not weakened Kiev's determination to pursue Euro-Atlantic integration and reforms that eradicate the Soviet inheritance that Putin cherishes completely.
Ukraine is on a bumpy road to harmonizing its political and economic system with EU member states, while successfully building a decentralized state, says Orysia Lotsevich, researcher and director of the Ukraine Forum in the Russia and Eurasia Program at Chatham House, formally known as the Royal Institute of International Affairs. With strong communities at home.
Its economy is now stable without Russian energy, and most of its exports go to China and the European Union rather than Russia.
expensive
In a report published by the Royal Institute of International Affairs, Lutsevich adds that Ukraine is paying a heavy price for such insistence, as the United Nations estimates that more than 13,000 people have been killed and 33,000 seriously injured since the start of the military offensive in 2014.
Russia keeps its pressure up by continuing a low-level conflict. Six-time ceasefires negotiated as part of the Minsk Accords have reduced casualties, but never ceased hostilities.
Russia views the Minsk agreements merely as a tool for imposing limited sovereignty over Ukraine by legitimizing proxy groups for Russia and providing them with comprehensive autonomy, including the right to veto the direction of Ukraine's foreign policy, Lutsevich says.
But such a “compromise” is unacceptable to Kiev, and Putin has so far failed to impose his interpretation of the agreement on Paris and Berlin, which led to Russia’s marginalization and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s call for Russia to implement its own in the Minsk Accords, during the last meeting of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Stockholm.
Russian refusal
Lutsevich explains that Russia refuses to change its position, and is in fact trying to expand its entitlement through a buffer zone that extends beyond the former Soviet republics to Eastern Europe;
Former Warsaw Pact region.
The two treaties proposed by Russia on December 17 define Europe's existence on two levels, one level which has the right to defend itself against Russian expansion, while the second level has to accept Russian supremacy as a new geopolitical reality.
Simply put, this would mean denying former Soviet republics such as Ukraine the right to exist as fully independent states, and it turns out that Putin's semi-historical article on Ukraine is actually an ideological declaration towards the whole of the former Soviet region.
By declaring that "true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia," he will reinforce the region's dependence on Russia.
His dream of superpower status means that he will “collect the Russian lands” and reshape what he recently described as “historic Russia” that disintegrated with the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Re-Unit
Moscow wants to “reunite” Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, and even Central Asian countries with Mother Russia, an ambition that Ukraine fully understands, which therefore regards the ongoing conflict as more than simply a war of independence, but a struggle to prevent a re-run. Colonization after 30 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and halting a project to establish a new Russian empire.
Ukraine understands that it is a key target in Putin's master plan.
The current Russian leadership does not respect its right to have its own state, and Moscow will continue all aspects of its war using the media, energy, history, and kinetic tools.
Ukraine now sees its battle as containing Russian expansion on a larger scale, and the outcome will determine whether the rules-based international order can be adhered to, or whether powerful states such as Russia and China will shape the world by coercion and military force.
Nor does Russia accept the fact that NATO's eastward expansion was not motivated by Washington, but by insecurity among the former Warsaw Pact countries towards Russia.
This same logic drives the majority of Ukrainians to desire collective security through NATO, with poll data showing that if a referendum were held on NATO membership, as many as 70% would agree.
Capacity Availability
Lutsevich stresses that collective security also requires the availability of the capabilities of each individual country to defend itself.
Ukrainians take self-defense seriously, and 60% of citizens declared their intention to defend Ukraine with a weapon in hand.
In addition to its combat-tested armed forces, Ukraine has some 400,000 veterans to lead a civilian resistance, so while Putin might envision a land grab, keeping it won't be easy for him.
Lutsevich concluded her report by saying that there are high-level talks between Moscow and Washington, which may lead to de-escalation, and therefore much depends on there being a unified international design to deter Russia, which is why creating a split in transatlantic solidarity over Ukraine is considered One of Putin's most important priorities.
The new leadership in Germany provides him with this, as well as the Biden administration's desire to focus on China, providing it with justification to placate Putin.
There is still an opportunity to influence Putin's calculations by raising the costs of any potential Russian aggression, and for Ukraine's international allies to help it defend itself. Putin may respect Ukraine's independence if he sees damage to Russia on the economic and military fronts.
• There is still an opportunity to influence Putin's calculations by raising the cost ceiling of any potential Russian aggression, and for Ukraine's international allies to help it defend itself.
• Ukraine now sees that its battle is to contain Russian expansion on a larger scale, and the outcome will determine whether the rules-based international order can be adhered to, or whether powerful states such as Russia and China will shape the world by coercion and military force.
• In addition to its combat-tested armed forces, Ukraine has about 400,000 war veterans to lead a civilian resistance, so despite the possibility of Putin conceiving territory, maintaining it will not be easy for him.
• Russia The Minsk Accords are merely a tool for imposing limited sovereignty over Ukraine, by legitimizing proxy groups on behalf of Russia, and providing them with comprehensive autonomy, including the right to veto the direction of Ukrainian foreign policy.
• Moscow wants to “reunify” Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, and even Central Asian countries with Mother Russia, an ambition that Kiev fully understands, as it considers the ongoing conflict more than just a war of independence, but rather a struggle to prevent recolonization after 30 years. from the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Follow our latest local and sports news and the latest political and economic developments via Google news