As a result of the unwillingness of the United States to participate
The Iranian nuclear crisis cannot be resolved by military force
A group of European and Iranian politicians in Vienna prepare for negotiations to revive the nuclear agreement.
Reuters
Trump's rhetoric was tough against Iran, but in his heart he was vehemently opposed to resorting to new military adventures.
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There are no indications that a breakthrough has been made in the negotiations to restore the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, from which former US President Donald Trump withdrew in 2018.
This agreement, which restricts many of Iran's nuclear enrichment activities, slowly fell into a state of dormancy following the withdrawal of the United States from it and Iran's violations of many of its provisions.
After rounds of negotiations in the Austrian city of Vienna, under the auspices of the Nuclear Energy Organization, it did not lead to overcoming the differences between the parties related to this agreement.
It is worth noting that the nuclear agreement known as the “Comprehensive and Joint Action Agreement” was not a stand-alone agreement to prevent Iran from carrying out nuclear activities, but was a joint effort led by France, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the rest of the permanent members of the UN Security Council (China, the United States, and Russia) to bring Iran back into compliance with its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Iran has not withdrawn from the agreement and it has been said that it has sought to adhere to its provisions that allow it to use peaceful nuclear energy technology, and there is documented evidence that such activities are not directed at nuclear weapons programs.
The 2015 agreement puts Iran in the sanctions box, as it requires the Tehran government to halt or reduce certain nuclear activities based on various timetables.
The agreement provided for the gradual suspension of the agreement, when Iran returns to the stage of a normal signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
complexity of efforts
The diplomatic agreement was to grant Iran financial exemptions from many of the harsh sanctions imposed on it by the international community, especially the United States.
But the Trump administration's maximum sanctions campaign against Iran, and Iran's challenge to it by increasing its rate of uranium enrichment above what is stipulated in the agreement, have complicated efforts by the administration of US President Joe Biden to return to the agreement.
A US State Department official summed up the state of the situation at the conclusion of the last round of negotiations in Vienna last week, saying, “It was better than it could have been, and worse than it should have been.” This statement confirms the frustration of the American side because Iran chose to end Negotiations Despite little progress made with IEA staff access to Iran's nuclear sites, and on the text for future negotiations.
But the inescapable impression is that these negotiations are in a serious impasse.
Iran is seeking assurances that all US sanctions imposed after 2018 must be lifted first.
But the United States insists that Iran first commit to full compliance with the agreement before beginning to ease sanctions.
One of the criticisms leveled at the JCPOA process in the past was the lack of a formal role for regional powers most affected by Iran's destabilizing activities in the region, such as Israel and the Gulf states.
wrong assumptions
Some experts believe that despite the shortcomings of the joint and comprehensive plan of action, it still restricts Iran's nuclear activities.
It seems that there will be no military solution.
Although Israeli intelligence worked to slow the pace of the Iranian nuclear program through covert operations against infrastructure, and the assassination of several Iranian atomic scientists, all these controversial moves did not lead to any permanent reduction of the Iranian nuclear threat.
Perhaps the Israelis realized that their strong relationship with Trump was based on false assumptions.
And they interpreted his tough statements against Iran as pledges to use military force against it when necessary, in order to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities.
In fact, Trump's speech regarding joint solidarity against the Iranian threat was aimed at encouraging the countries of the region to manage the crisis, because the man in his heart was vehemently opposed to new military adventures.
Now the Israeli security establishment is becoming more vocal about the challenges to the use of military force without the participation of the United States.
During the past week, Israeli officials exerted intense pressure in Washington to ensure that Washington does not abandon the use of military force in its dealings with Iran.
On the Arab side, a new interest has emerged in diplomatic dealings with Iran, with the help of Iraq's pivotal role as the bridge through which to cross into Iran.
No breakthrough in gaining trust with Iran and the Arab states should be expected, but their recognition that they can do more to prevent conflict in the region is a welcome development.
It may be based on the realization that the United States either cannot solve this problem, or does not want it to end.
Whether the Vienna negotiations succeed or not, there is a new pragmatic tone among Iran's neighbors, although it will not solve the Iranian nuclear problem, but it can improve the security environment in the region.
• The Israelis realized that their strong relationship with Trump was based on false assumptions. And they interpreted his tough statements against Iran as pledges to use military force against it when necessary.
Elaine Lipson is director of the International Security Program at George Mason University's School of Politics and Governance.
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