Is Joe Biden's Presidency Done Already?

• Almost a year after his inauguration, US President Joe Biden has suffered a snub in recent days with the refusal of a Democratic senator to vote his great social and ecological text.

• While his mandate had started rather well, especially with a major economic stimulus plan, the majority of Joe Biden is threatened and the polls very bad for the midterm elections.

• Infrastructure plan, Covid-19, Afghanistan and the role of Kamala Harris,

  20 Minutes

  takes stock of this first year of America by Joe Biden with two experts.

“I can't vote for this.

By announcing on the ultra-conservative Fox News channel his opposition to the "Build Back Better" plan, Democratic Senator Joe Manchin sent a little wind of panic to the White House.

Here is the gigantic plan of social and ecological reforms, with a budget of 1.750 billion dollars and which could pass Joe Biden for a Roosevelt of the XXIst century, blocked by a member of his own camp.

Obviously, it's messy, especially after the return of the Taliban to Afghanistan and galloping inflation.

From there to saying that the Biden presidency is already screwed up, a year after his election? 

takes stock.

Aid plan, investment plan, solid arguments

In addition to having spent his first weeks unraveling the most conservative measures of Donald Trump, Joe Biden signed a great victory in the spring: a gigantic stimulus package of 1.9 trillion dollars to resuscitate an American economy damaged by the Covid-19, “very important and passed quickly,” points out Nicole Bacharan, political scientist and author of

. Another great achievement of the Pennsylvanian, his plan for infrastructures, which should revive “an aging America, where the roads are full of potholes, where one wonders whether one will pass on the bridge, where one no longer has access to the Internet outside the cities, ”lists Jean-Eric Branaa, senior lecturer at the Sorbonne specializing in American politics.

Fifty billion dollars have already been released to open access to fresh water in certain areas and as much to change the lead pipes.

But the transformation, more than useful for a country “bordering on third world” in places, according to Nicole Bacharan, will take time.

At least ten years.

And Americans are not seeing the effects yet, even though this plan will generate many jobs.

Employment, Covid-19 and inflation, between good management and the economy

Unemployment level precisely, all lights are green. Falling to 4.4% in December, "an unemployment rate is announced below 4% in January, which was the target for July 2022", points out Jean-Eric Branaa. A sign that the strong economic recovery is a success, despite galloping inflation. A "corollary" according to the teacher, since people consume and have seen their wages increase after tense negotiations when labor became scarce. If it is difficult for him to act on this cyclical rise in prices, the president may fear that it will cost him the “midterms”.

Another worrying situation on a daily basis for Americans, the Covid-19 epidemic is experiencing a new lease of life with the Omicron variant, which represents 73% of contaminations in the United States.

Here again, it is difficult for Joe Biden to do better, since his efforts on vaccination are limited by “Republicans' anti-ax propaganda,” laments Nicole Bacharan.

Despite everything, "the presence of the army in hospitals pleases, because we feel that there is a pilot on board", image Jean-Eric Branaa.

The disintegration of the democrats

For Joe Biden, the enemy may be inside. Elected to bring a little peace to everyday life after a Trump presidency marked by brilliance, he is disowned live in a Republican media by a man of his camp, Joe Manchin. "Biden's promise of unity is a failure," said Jean-Eric Branaa, who compared the two wings of the Democratic camp to "two kids fighting in the schoolyard". In the Senate, where the two major parties of the country are on an equal footing, the president finds himself at the mercy of the lesser elected who wants to block him, which is never very good in terms of leadership. These internal disputes tire voters, who have inflicted a defeat on Democrats in Virginia, while the governor's seat was promised to Terry McAuliffe.

There remains the symbolic case of the “Build Back Better” plan, which was to “transform America” socially and environmentally.

"Creation of public nursery schools, parental leave", quotes Jean-Eric Branaa about the plan imagined by Bernie Sanders.

All this does not exist across the Atlantic.

"It will have no electoral importance," he warns.

All the more so since Joe Manchin "is playing politics" with his declaration, since Congress is on vacation and his opposition has been expressed in the conditional form.

This promises parties full of negotiations according to the lecturer, for whom the "BBB" is not dead.

Middle Eastern stigmata

If there is one issue that can harm Joe Biden's presidency, it is the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, immediately plunging the country into chaos with the return of the Taliban. Summoning the memory of the images of Saigon in 1975, Nicole Bacharan said to herself that "Joe Biden will not recover from it". Appeared "overwhelmed, weakened" according to her, the president tried to charge Donald Trump, who had initiated this withdrawal. "But nothing prevented him from undoing this decision like the others", underlines the political scientist. Jean-Eric Branaa may well assure that "it's good experience in the United States to stop sending soldiers and money abroad", the impression of a debacle remains.

Especially since the American president has not shown himself more skilful elsewhere.

First by falling out with France on the subject of submarines in Australia, then by struggling to counterbalance the Kremlin during the crisis on the Belarusian border.

While Putin seems to be preparing an attack in Ukraine, "nothing is working" in China and even less in Iran, which still wants to acquire nuclear weapons, according to Nicole Bacharan.

Kamala Harris, future apprenticeship president?

On a daily basis, however, it is not Joe Biden who is the most attacked by his political opponents, but Kamala Harris. Almost propelled to the rank of icon during the campaign, the vice-president must today be more discreet constitutionally. "She has no function in the executive, she cannot put herself forward, the decisions she takes in the working groups are not made public," explains Nicole Bacharan.

But "we already have the Democratic candidate for 2024", advances Jean-Eric Branaa, "no Democratic leader is able to compete with her".

So, the Republicans "seek to weaken it as much as possible before the official start of the campaign."

A task all the easier as the vice-president manages "insoluble matters, such as immigration to the Mexican border or the right to vote", underlines Nicole Bacharan, and on which the Californian has no experience.

Our file on Joe Biden

But when it comes to taking stock, it is the president's action that counts.

And as in Virginia, voters could express in the midterm elections their weariness with Covid-19, dissension among Democrats and the economic situation at half mast.

“While he already has an extremely tight majority, Joe Biden may be paralyzed,” warns Nicole Bacharan.

And his presidency good to throw.

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• US presidential election

• Joe biden

• United States

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