Russia threatens military action if the United States does not provide security guarantees

Russia is demanding written guarantees from the United States that it will stop further enlargement to the east of the NATO military alliance.

The United States must prevent former Soviet states from joining NATO, according to a document the Kremlin published on its website on Friday.

Russia also demands that the United States not establish military bases in countries that once belonged to the Soviet Union and are not currently members of NATO.

In exchange, Russia promises not to plan or carry out attacks from any other state, which it also wants the other party to agree to. 

- It is formulated as an ultimatum.

It is not an invitation to negotiate, says Arkady Moshes, head of Russia's program at the Finnish Institute of Foreign Policy (FIIA).

"Minute of Truth"

The conflict escalated further on Monday when a senior Russian diplomat said the United States must respond quickly, otherwise Russian military action awaits.

"There must be a serious conversation and everyone in NATO is fully aware that, despite their strength and power, concrete political measures must be taken, otherwise the alternative is a military-technical and military reaction from Russia," said Konstantin Gavrilov, Russia's diplomatic chief. delegation in Vienna, reports Reuters.

Russian state-controlled Tass quoted the statement as saying it was "the minute of truth".

But Arkady Moshes, at the Finnish Foreign Policy Institute, believes that a war between Russia and the United States or other NATO countries is unlikely.

- The probability of war between Russia and NATO countries, including the United States, is probably zero.

I judge that there is a probability of an unintentional incident.

Unfortunately, it is always possible, says Moshes.

Russia also wants the parties not to operate bombers and other military vehicles with conventional weapons and nuclear weapons, outside "national airspace and sea", and to limit short- and medium-range robots to their own national territory - without Russia specifying what they consider to be their national territory. .

Russian mobilization

According to previous information, Russia has mobilized about 100,000 soldiers near Ukraine's borders in addition to soldiers in areas annexed by Russia in Ukraine.

In mid-October, the conflict escalated when Russia announced that it would take home its NATO delegation in Brussels and close NATO's offices in Moscow by withdrawing accreditations for Western diplomats.