Mounting pressure on both sides with no prospect of a solution
Dimensions of Washington's disclosure of its military understandings with Israel against Iran
The defense ministers of America and Israel .. a relative understanding on Iran.
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Iranian uranium enrichment may increase if the latest round of negotiations in Vienna fails.
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International and Israeli concerns have increased about the possibility of the collapse of the seventh round of nuclear negotiations, due to Tehran’s intransigence in these negotiations, and its submission of two drafts related to lifting sanctions, as well as the nuclear measures it will abide by, which contradict what was agreed upon during previous rounds of negotiations. Therefore, the West considered the current round as Iran's last chance. Otherwise, the alternative course would be to try non-diplomatic options, that is, tightening sanctions in conjunction with carrying out sabotage or military operations against Iran.
The beginnings of this path were clarified in the United States imposing, on December 7, new sanctions targeting about 10 Iranian entities and officials, that is, after the end of the first phase of the seventh round negotiations, and before the resumption of the second phase, which began on December 10, in conjunction with the presence of American talks – An intense Israeli campaign began on December 9 about alternative options for diplomacy.
It is known that the Israeli Prime Minister, Naftali Bennett, called in early December to stop the seventh round of negotiations with Iran, in response to its "nuclear blackmail", in reference to its procrastination and procrastination in the negotiations.
Parallel Israeli moves:
Israel has intensified its moves during the past few days to enhance its capabilities to confront the escalating Iranian threats. The most prominent Israeli steps are as follows:
1- Prepare to simulate an attack on Iran
The Israeli army leaked information to the press about its readiness to conduct massive air maneuvers in the coming spring months simulating a possible military strike on Iran.
He also revealed that these maneuvers will be among the largest ever conducted by the Israeli Air Force.
2- Gantz’s coordination with the Pentagon
Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz sought, during his meeting with his American counterpart, Lloyd Austin, on December 9 in Washington to discuss options for dealing with Iran in the event of the failure of nuclear negotiations.
A senior US official revealed that the US-Israeli agenda includes discussing possible military exercises that would prepare for the destruction of Iran's nuclear facilities in the event of the failure of diplomatic efforts.
In order to confirm the seriousness of this option, the discussions included the Pentagon’s study of the possibility of carrying out joint military maneuvers to confront Iran, as the Israeli minister confirmed that he came to deepen cooperation with the United States in confronting Iran, especially at the level of joint military readiness, with an emphasis on Israeli confidence in the commitment of the American administration Not to allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons.
3- Attacking targets on the periphery
Gantz was accompanied on his visit to Washington by the head of the Mossad, David Barnea.
It should be noted that Tel Aviv had reached previous understandings with the US administration on an alternative plan for nuclear negotiations with Iran, known at the time as “death by a thousand stab wounds,” meaning the destruction of the Iranian nuclear program by carrying out a wide range of sabotage operations against nuclear facilities.
Of course, the Israeli Mossad, in cooperation with US intelligence, will play a role in implementing this strategy.
4- A diplomatic path to influence the European position
In late November, Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid visited London and Paris;
To mobilize the support of European allies in favor of the Israeli position rejecting negotiations with Iran.
Israel is constantly keen to refute the narratives that limit the Iranian threat to its reflection on Israeli security alone. Rather, it always asserts that it represents a threat to regional and global security and stability, which means that the United States, European countries, and the international community must intervene to pressure Iran.
US position shifts
There is a state of American discontent over Iran's procrastination in the seventh round of nuclear negotiations, prompting Washington and the European Troika to express the possibility of the negotiations collapsing, in order to put pressure on Iran.
Washington's policies can be explained as follows:
1- Accommodating the Israeli-American differences:
The US-Israeli differences have worsened since the advent of the Joe Biden administration, following his insistence on solving the Iranian nuclear program problem diplomatically. to one degree or another.
Because Washington is aware of this, it has sought to cooperate with Israel to form a united front to confront the threats of the Iranian nuclear program militarily.
2- Prepare for non-diplomatic solutions
US President Joe Biden called for the necessary preparations to be made in the event that diplomatic means fail, which was stated by White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki on December 9, referring to the activation of the subversive or military option against Iran.
The US administration also threatened to tighten pressure on Iran by ensuring that all countries abide by US sanctions against it, especially China. The US State Department spokesman, Ned Price, indicated that the US administration is working to identify entities that violate sanctions against Iran, and is keen to warn them against continuing in that.
3- Announcing joint military exercises
On December 9, Gantz and Austin studied at the Pentagon the implementation of joint military exercises in order to prepare for a military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities in the event the nuclear talks fail.
Then Washington sought to mitigate these statements by assuring that these joint exercises are frequently conducted by the United States in order to deal with common regional threats.
Common Compatibility Boundaries
It is clear that the attempts to bring about a relative consensus in the American-Israeli position do not cancel out the existence of differences between the two parties, which can be clarified as follows:
1- Washington’s preference for a diplomatic solution:
Despite Washington returning the option of military or sabotage strikes against the Iranian nuclear program, or its proxies, on the table, and Washington revealed that the Israeli sabotage operations against Iran, in June and September, were carried out with an American green light, Washington is still placing the military sabotage option in her last options.
2- An Israeli bet on the military option alone
Tel Aviv rejects any diplomatic agreement between Washington and Iran, realizing that such an agreement may not prevent Iran from developing its uranium enrichment capabilities, similar to the 2015 agreement, meaning that such an expected agreement will extend the period in which Iran can reach levels High levels of uranium enrichment, and will not prevent it completely.
Also, in light of the Iranian precedents of trying to establish a secret nuclear program away from the eyes of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Israeli fears are increasing that Iran may, in the end, acquire a nuclear bomb even if the nuclear agreement with it is revived.
For this reason, Bennett has repeatedly stressed his non-compliance with such an agreement, and stressed the possibility of Israel moving unilaterally to achieve its national security.
decisive factor
The Iranian position will be the determining factor in whether or not the United States and Israel adopt a common policy toward Iran.
In the event that Tehran shows flexibility in the negotiations, the US-Israeli understandings will be regressed.
In the event that Iran's intransigence continues, Washington and Tel Aviv may eventually turn to activate the military option against Iran.
• Despite Washington returning the option to launch military strikes, or sabotage against the Iranian nuclear program, or its proxies, on the table, and Washington revealed that the Israeli sabotage operations against Iran, in June and September, were carried out with an American green light, Washington is still placing the military sabotage option in her last options.
• Tel Aviv rejects any diplomatic agreement between Washington and Iran, realizing that such an agreement may not prevent Iran from developing its capabilities in the field of uranium enrichment, similar to the 2015 agreement, meaning that such an expected agreement will extend the period during which Iran can reach levels of uranium enrichment. High fertilization, and will not prevent it completely.
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