"France is more beautiful because New Caledonia has decided to stay there": after the results of the third referendum on the self-determination of the archipelago, Emmanuel Macron hailed, Sunday, December 12, the overwhelming victory of "no" to independence. The French president however conceded that "the electorate had remained deeply divided" and took note of the "context of strong abstention", during this ballot boycotted by the separatists. The turnout was only 43.9%, half less than in the two previous referendums, and the "no" won at 96.49%.

This retention of New Caledonia in the French fold represents not only a political victory but also a strategic success for the French state. This third consultation, which confirms the result of the previous two, is also the last of the process of decolonization of the Nouméa Accord, signed in 1998. The end of this referendum period ensures that France has a stranglehold on this overseas collectivity. sea, which however has a great deal of autonomy.

"The Overseas Territories allow France to be a world power and, in the Pacific region, an Oceanian power", explains to France 24 Sarah Mohamed-Gaillard, lecturer in contemporary history at Inalco. This power passes in particular through the maritime domain of France, which extends over 10.2 million km ². Of this area, more than 1.3 million km ² is located around New Caledonia, the largest part belonging to Polynesia (4.8 million km ²). "The more points of support France has in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, the more its Indo-Pacific ambition is reinforced," continues the specialist in the history of Oceania and France's policy in the South Pacific.

>> To read also: "The fractures of New Caledonia rekindled at the dawn of the last referendum on independence"

If New Caledonia is located 18,000 km from the metropolis, only 2,000 km separate it from Australia.

And the archipelago is very close to another regional power, New Zealand.

An advantageous geographical position for France, which wishes to participate in the creation of an Indo-Pacific axis.

In July, at the fifth France-Oceania summit, Emmanuel Macron promised to strengthen cooperation between France and the States of Oceania to secure territorial waters, in particular against illegal fishing, and to mitigate the impact of climate change in The pacific.

The Head of State notably announced the creation of a "network of coast guards for the South Pacific".

"The South Pacific island states lease their fishing grounds to powers in the region, but they do not have the means to monitor whether these countries come to fish in their waters. They are asking Australia for help in monitoring. maritime but this one targets an area of ​​influence further north, towards China and India, in particular. These island states therefore need France ", summarizes in France 24 Nathalie Mrgudovic, lecturer at the university from Aston, England, and specialist in French overseas territories.

Western cooperation against China

In addition, the French military forces based in New Caledonia cover an area comprising "the territories, territorial waters and air spaces included in the perimeter, in particular those of New Zealand, Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, and the islands. Solomon, as well as the territory of New Caledonia, its dependencies and Wallis and Futuna ", indicates the Ministry of the Armed Forces. 

The stakes in the Pacific are all the more decisive for France as relations with Australia have not been looking good since the announcement of the Aukus alliance, concluded by Canberra with the United States and the United Kingdom. , which prevented France from selling $ 56 billion worth of submarines to Australia.

>> To read also: "Quad, Aukus: how Washington isolates China in the Indo-Pacific zone"

"For Australians, France is still seen as an ally. They have always encouraged the French presence to ensure security in the region, control and surveillance of fishing areas, in particular of island states", tempers Nathalie Mrgudovic, author of the book "France in the South Pacific. The stakes of power" (éd. L'Harmattan, 2008).

This Western cooperation is largely against China, which exerts increasing maritime and military pressure in the Pacific. "All the Melanesian states (Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and the Fiji Islands) have become Chinese satellites," said Bastien Vandendyck, analyst in international relations, specialist in the Pacific, interviewed by AFP. "All that's missing is New Caledonia for the Melanesian Chinese pearl necklace to finally close at the gates of Australia," he adds.

The fact that New Caledonia remains French thwarts Beijing's ambitions in the region.

"New Caledonia would have had to be independent for China to be able to recover its resources and its fishing grounds. But France is still there and it does not intend to let go of New Caledonia," said Nathalie Mrgudovic.

Significant nickel resources

Especially since the archipelago is a territory rich in nickel, a metal used in the manufacture of stainless steel and electric batteries. More specifically, New Caledonia has around 10% of the world's nickel reserves, behind Indonesia (21%), Australia (20%) and Brazil (16%), according to the Institute for Geological Studies of United States (USGS). The fourth largest producer in the world, the archipelago exported 8.1 million tonnes of raw nickel ore in 2020 to China, South Korea and Japan. What to arouse even more the envy of China.

The victory of the "no" to independence serves the interests of France and the transition period which began on Sunday is decisive for New Caledonia. In accordance with the Nouméa agreements, this period of dialogue between the separatists and the French government should lead within 18 months to the development of a new statute for the archipelago. But while the Minister of Overseas Territories, Sébastien Lecornu, arrived on site on Friday, the dialogue between all the players promises to be difficult.

The FLNKS (grouping of separatist parties) and the nationalists, who shunned the ballot on Sunday which they hoped to see postponed in 2022, announced that they would not recognize its result, which "will not be able to constitute a basis for discussion". They also do not wish to discuss "before the presidential election" of April 2022. These disagreements could have repercussions beyond the borders of New Caledonia, where the referendum has been closely scrutinized.

"The fact that the French government refused the postponement of the referendum - and therefore did not hear the request of the separatists - can have an embarrassing impact in the region. The Melanesian states see in this decision a stubbornness of France that they find it difficult to understand, "explains Sarah Mohamed-Gaillard, who underlines" a feeling of solidarity between these Melanesian States ", united by the same culture. In other words, "the way in which the French government conducted this third referendum may scratch the image of France in the region", abounds the historian.

At the end of the transition period, the New Caledonian population could be consulted again, but this time on the desired project for New Caledonia.

"This new relationship that will emerge between the French state and New Caledonia could involve strengthening the role and power of New Caledonian representation at the diplomatic level," says Nathalie Mrgudovic.

And the researcher added: "France would then appear not as an administrative power but as a partner of New Caledonia, which would be positive both for the overseas territories and for the image of France. France internationally. "

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