After a good eight months without a regular government, the members of the Bulgarian parliament elected a new prime minister on Monday: the former entrepreneur Kyrill Petkow will become the head of government of a coalition that is supposed to lead the country out of a long period of uncertainty.
Michael Martens
Correspondent for Southeast European countries based in Vienna.
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After the parliamentary elections in April and their repetition in July, the majority had not been found. It was not until the third election in November that a new formation emerged that made the difference and can be seen as one of the most ambitious political experiments in the democratic part of Eastern Europe: The most formative force in the four-party coalition that is supposed to rule the EU state Bulgaria out of the crisis is this "We continue the change" party founded in September, PP for short. It is often referred to as the "Harvard Party" because its two chairmen - apart from Petkov, who is the future finance minister, Assen Wassilew - graduated from this elite university before they became entrepreneurs and finally switched to politics. Your cabinet is strongly influenced by a similar milieu.
The Minister for Innovation and Growth, for example, according to his résumé, which was circulated in the Bulgarian media, studied computer science in Israel before working in Switzerland and other European countries and setting up his own companies. A deputy prime minister responsible for governance was trained at Bad College in New York State. The Minister of Culture studied in the United States and lived as an actor and producer in Hollywood, Berlin and London before returning to Bulgaria. There, at Goldsmiths College, London University, the minister responsible for digitization and e-government was also trained. Many of the advisors in the new cabinet also come from an elite background.
Their résumés read impressively, and yet it is uncertain to what extent Petkow and his people will be able to keep their central promise to rid the political system and especially the judiciary of Bulgaria from the brink of corruption. It goes without saying that the consecration of an elite university education is no guarantee of success in politics. In addition, although the PP was the strongest force in the November election, with almost 25.7 percent of the votes it is dependent on coalition partners. Petkov and Vasilev have to rely on three parties in the new cabinet, two of which are considered insecure cantonists.
One is the well-known Bulgarian Socialist Party, the BSP. Thirty years after the collapse of the Warsaw Pact, it can no longer be given the label “post-communist”, which has long been applicable. Party leader Kornelia Ninowa was 21 years old when the Eastern bloc disintegrated. But there are serious doubts about the self-portrayal of the party leadership, according to which the BSP has turned into a force for reform. Ninowa's regular nationalistic impulses speak against it, as does the closeness of parts of the party to Putin's Russia.
It is also unclear how the party “There is such a people” of the show master and Balkan pop singer Slawi Trifonov will behave in power.
In the past, this likewise new political force was particularly noticeable due to its radical populist stance.
After his party won the election in July, Trifonov delivered a disastrous spectacle of inexperience and overconfidence, and then failed to form a government.
You can rely on the smallest coalition partner
Interlocutors in Sofia want to know that Trifonov and his party have become more pragmatic. It would be important for the success of the new coalition that they not be wrong. On the other hand, the fourth and smallest coalition partner, “Democratic Bulgaria”, can be relied on. The personnel and program of the party, which will be responsible for justice and environmental protection in the new cabinet, suggest that the reform promises are meant seriously.
The expectations on the government are almost overwhelming.
After the mandate was handed over to Petkov, President Rumen Radew was quoted as saying that if significant changes, particularly in the prosecutor's office, were not achieved in the first 100 days, the coalition would not be able to win the fight for Bulgaria's future.
The President therefore also spoke of a “deep state” that had to be overcome.
Petkov's remark that the country's attorney general (suspected of being particularly corrupt) cannot simply be removed will not have appealed to his supporters, but it is in line with the law.
At the same time, the future head of government admits that his promise of a policy of “zero tolerance” towards corruption cannot be kept without a functioning public prosecutor.
Two issues are particularly pressing
But the coalition must not only solve the extremely demanding task of judicial reform.
In the short term, two other difficulties are more urgent: The high energy prices are a heavy burden on the economically weakest country in the EU.
Also by far the lowest vaccination rate in the EU.
Not even 30 percent of the population are double vaccinated against Covid-19.
Petkow has announced a vaccination initiative.
Sofia's course in European policy, on the other hand, is unlikely to change.
Bulgaria will continue to block EU accession talks with North Macedonia in the future.
The new Foreign Minister Teodora Gentschowska, a graduate of the Military Academy in Sofia, is considered close to President Radev.
In the "historical dispute" with North Macedonia, in which Sofia casts doubt on the identity of the Macedonians, he advocates a nationalist line.
Of course, this is what most of the Sofia political class thinks.