Analysis: The world is waiting for the new German government to declare color

The new German government is thrown straight into a number of burning problems.

The everything else overshadowing is, of course, the pandemic.

A new wave of infections is sweeping across Europe and Germany, hospitals are under heavy pressure in some places and there is talk of introducing vaccine compulsion.

But foreign policy is also infected.

Tensions at the Polish-Belarusian border.

An escalating rhetoric in Bosnia-Herzegovina that reminds some of the wars of the 1990s.

Internal tensions over democratic principles in the EU.

And relations with Russia and China.

Where Germany sets foot, where the EU leans

In recent days, the United States has raised its voice against Russia over troop movements along Ukraine's border and decided not to send a diplomatic representative to the Winter Olympics in Beijing as a signal of human rights violations.

The EU is not united in its relationship with the giants in the east and it plays a major role in the Union's policy where Germany sets foot.

Foreign policy has been absent during the election campaign and speculation is in full swing.

Should Germany continue on Merkel's path, which was to keep a dialogue open and not clash too hard with Moscow?

At a press conference yesterday, the new Chancellor Scholz said that German foreign policy is about continuity.

Maybe he wants to continue to keep the balance - mark against Russia, but not break completely?

Probably tougher tones against Russia and China

But there are many indications that the tone in the future will be harsher, whether Scholz wants it or not.

Russian troops on the Ukrainian border demand some form of reaction.

At the same priest's meeting, he said that it must be clear to Russia that further threats against Ukraine are unacceptable.

The two coalition parties, the Greens and the Liberals in the FDP, have been much sharper in their criticism of both Russia and China.

The coalition treaty specifically criticizes China for human rights violations and mentions support for Taiwan.

Clearer conflict also within the EU

Also in the EU, we can expect tougher times - against Poland and Hungary.

Merkel strived for European unity and chose not to go into too clear a conflict.

The parties in the new government have repeatedly mentioned the importance of all countries in the Union adhering to the common democratic values, such as the independence of the judiciary, where Poland has been criticized.

They have also expressed their support for the European Commission to take action against countries that violate them.

One such measure could be to withhold the money from the corona support package.

A stronger and more federal EU

Scholz has said he is striving for a stronger EU.

He is close to the French position - that Europe should be more self-sufficient and independent.

This means, among other things, more cooperation on defense, security and foreign policy.

The coalition treaty also states that the ambition is for the EU to eventually move towards a federal state.

This is also in line with the current French position.

Now a lot depends on the next big choice - the French this spring.

If the President of France is still named Macron after that election, we will see the EU's two heaviest countries join forces in the direction of more European supranational cooperation.

If, on the other hand, EU critic Le Pen wins, the game plan will be completely put on hold.