Who should I believe in?

sang Tomas diLeva in 1987. He could just as easily have meant Ethiopia 2021.

I do not know of any other major war in the last ten years that has been fought in total media shadow as in Ethiopia.

When I was in Addis Ababa a month ago, CNN had recently published the news that TPLF was just outside the city.

Abiy Ahmed's press secretary Bilene Seyoum has made a big deal out of this and repeatedly called it fake news.

There was no indication then or now that CNN's reporting was particularly well substantiated.

But what can one expect when journalists are prevented from doing their job properly in the country.

No one I know has received press accreditation lately.

Is this a tactical retreat or a regular victory for Abiy Ahmed, who recently went to the front himself to lead the war?

Maybe it's both.

Recently, the television channel Al Jazeera was able to show satellite images showing that the United Arab Emirates is acting as an intermediary in an international trade in drones for Abiy Ahmed's government.

Drones and bombs

The TPLF has long said that Turkish and Chinese drones have been used against them in the war.

And there are many indications that TPLF has become increasingly vulnerable to airstrikes when leaving the mountainous terrain of Tigray and venturing out on the plains of Amhara and Afar.

According to Abiy Ahmed, the young people from Tigray are falling like leaves.

Maybe it's the drones and bombs he's referring to.

But the question is how decisive effect the drones have in the war as a whole.

The Ethiopian economy is under severe pressure and you cannot buy expensive drones forever.

Tigray's state president Debretsion Gebremichael recalls that it took 17 years to win over military junta Derg.

He believes that it will not take as long this time.

On the other hand, the Abiy government has the support of several countries in the Middle East, which have strong economic interests in the region and would like to see an Ethiopia that is friends with Eritrea.

This was especially noticeable when the peace agreement between the countries was signed in Saudi Arabia.

Far from both the United States and the United Nations.

So everyone wins, according to themselves.

And everyone loses, according to the others.

So who should one believe in?

Well, the people who say that children, women and men suffer and die.

Every day.

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Background to the Ethiopian conflict Photo: Jeff Wheeler / AP / TT