“Bargaining with the West” does not enable the movement to achieve its goals
The Taliban employs the fight against ISIS to gain international recognition
The dilemma of controlling the anti-Taliban movements will not be resolved soon in the absence of international support for the movement.
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Members of the "Taliban" forces inspect a place used by ISIS-Khorasan as a hideout in Jalalabad.
EPA
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The Taliban announced, in a tweet on Twitter on November 18, that its special forces had uncovered an ISIS cell in the Murad Beg Qala area, in the Afghan province of Kabul, which was planning to carry out attacks against civilians. .
This comes three days after the Taliban launched attacks on several ISIS hideouts in the southern province of Kandahar, killing four and arresting 10 ISIS militants.
The objectives of the military operations of the "Taliban":
The Taliban has recently intensified its efforts to confront the escalating threats from ISIS-K. This reveals the movement's pursuit of a number of goals, which can be detailed as follows:
1- Get economic support:
The economic challenge is considered the biggest threat to the "Taliban" movement in its quest to consolidate control over Afghanistan and prove its ability to rule the country.
By intensifying attacks to confront the dangers of ISIS, the movement seeks to use this to obtain financial aid and lift the freeze on Afghan assets abroad, which would enable it to run state affairs, provide services, and pay salaries to employees.
So Islamabad, an ally of the Taliban, called on the international community to quickly resume economic support for Afghanistan, warning that it was on the verge of economic collapse.
The establishment of security in Afghanistan will enable it to establish economic relations with abroad and attract foreign investments, especially Chinese, to benefit from the natural wealth it enjoys, such as copper, cobalt, gold, iron, lithium and lapis lazuli.
On the other hand, Afghanistan is located on the most important trade routes and corridors linking South Asia with the Central and North, and it wants, in cooperation with its ally Pakistan, to become one of the main corridors of the Ring and Land Road Project, as the Pakistani ambassador to Afghanistan, Mansur Ahmed Khan, indicated on September 28, That his country discussed the accession of the "Taliban" government to the infrastructure project of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
2- Ensuring international recognition:
Since taking control of Afghanistan, the Taliban has been seeking international recognition, but it is aware that this recognition depends more on the Taliban's commitment to prevent the use of Afghan lands by terrorist groups and turn them into a focus for exporting terrorism to foreign countries.
Perhaps the escalation of suicide attacks by ISIS during the past two months, which killed at least 90 people and injured hundreds of others, has raised the international community’s fears of the possibility of the Taliban failing to address this threat, especially in light of the presence of negative assessments. Western officials believe that ISIS will gain the ability to strike international targets within six to 12 months.
The Taliban succeeded in investing its role in fighting ISIS to gain international recognition. Representatives of the Troika Plus countries, which include the United States, China, Russia and Pakistan, met on November 11 with the Foreign Minister of the Taliban government, Amir Khan Muttaki. Which represented the largest foreign participation with the Afghan government, as well as multiple meetings between a Taliban delegation with US, Turkish and Qatari officials in Doha on November 26 and 27, suggesting the continuation of negotiations between the Taliban and foreign countries to discuss recognition of the Taliban government. In return for compliance with certain conditions.
3- Popular support and the imposition of security
The Taliban's attempts to defeat ISIS come within the framework of its efforts to consolidate control over Afghanistan and impose order and security, in order to gain popular legitimacy at home, especially at a time when the dangers of the organization are increasing.
It is estimated that from September 18 to October 28, 2021, ISIS carried out at least 54 attacks in Afghanistan, ranging from suicide bombings, assassinations, and ambushes, targeting civilians, infrastructure, and Shiite mosques, both in the north and south of the country.
The most recent of these operations was the targeting of the Kabul Military Hospital on November 2, which killed at least 19 people, which weakens the Taliban’s control over the situation in Afghanistan, which may pave the way for the emergence of an armed opposition against its rule at a later period, with the support of from a regional country.
4- Revenge against ISIS
The attacks launched by Taliban fighters on ISIS strongholds demonstrate their desire to take revenge on the organization, especially after the killing of the Taliban military leader, Hamdullah Mukhlis, in the attack on the Kabul Military Hospital, a member of the Taliban’s special forces Badri 313, the forces concerned with confronting ISIS in Afghanistan.
Mukhlis is the highest-ranking Taliban official to have been killed since the movement took power in Afghanistan in mid-August.
Chances of defeating ISIS
It is possible to shed light on some scenarios of confrontation between the “Taliban” and “ISIS” during the coming period, as follows:
1- The Taliban managed to defeat ISIS
This possibility assumes that the “Taliban” movement will be able to curb ISIS and prevent the growth of its terrorist activity inside Afghanistan, based on Pakistani military and intelligence support, as well as international support, which was clarified in the agreement of the participants in the “Troika Plus” meeting on the need for stability The Afghan state, and not to turn it into a safe haven for terrorist organizations.
In fighting ISIS, the “Taliban” relies on the Haqqani network, the terrorist “Al-Qaeda” organization, and the population loyal to the “Taliban”, with their field experience in fighting ISIS, or reporting their whereabouts, which may help them in eliminating ISIS. on the organization.
2- The failure of the “Taliban” to confront ISIS
This possibility is based on the decline in the ability of the “Taliban” to eliminate ISIS, in light of the continued suspension by foreign governments of providing economic aid, and the continued freezing of Afghan assets held abroad, with the consequent growth of popular anger, and ISIS was able to exploit this To recruit new items.
And the Wall Street Journal report, in early November, indicates that ISIS managed to recruit elements from the Afghan army forces and the former intelligence service, who received training at the hands of US forces, which increases the dangers of the organization.
The chances of achieving such a scenario decline, given that ISIS enjoys limited appeal in Afghanistan, where it was previously unable to control, except for the provinces of Kunar and Nangarhar in the east, due to the spread of extremist Salafist ideology, while the vast majority of Afghans belong to the sect. The moderate Hanafi, which means that there are restrictions on expanding the base of those who adhere to it and support its ideology.
3- The exchange of blows between the two parties:
This scenario assumes the Taliban's failure to completely eliminate ISIS, but at the same time it greatly weakens its capabilities, making it unable to control its places of rule, but at the same time it does not lose the ability to carry out terrorist attacks, which this represents. From weakening the movement, and embarrassing it in front of the inside and outside.
The Taliban's ability to control
It can be said that the ability of the “Taliban” to tighten its control over the situation in Afghanistan, establish security, and eliminate ISIS, depends mainly on its internal cohesion and the continuation of Pakistani support for it, as well as alleviating the fears of international powers about it, which qualifies it to obtain economic support.
It is expected that the "Taliban" will exploit the terrorist operations carried out by ISIS in order to present itself to the international community as a movement distinct ideologically from ISIS, and seek to eliminate it, to obtain international recognition and the necessary economic aid, so that Afghanistan does not enter into chaos, and turn into A safe haven for terrorist organizations.
• A report by the "Wall Street Journal", published in early November, indicates that ISIS was able to recruit members of the Afghan army forces and the former intelligence service, who were trained by US forces, which increases the dangers of the organization.
• In fighting ISIS, the Taliban relies on the Haqqani network, the terrorist “Al-Qaeda” organization, and the population loyal to the “Taliban,” with their field experience in fighting ISIS, or reporting their whereabouts, which may help them eliminate ISIS. Organization.
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