In 1999, Professor David Dunning and Justin Kruger of Cornell University conducted an interesting experiment.
They asked the undergraduate students to 'evaluate their understanding' and predict their own grades.
The results were interesting.
Students in the bottom 25% predicted their grades to be in the top 40%.
It's like 'overestimating' yourself.
On the other hand, excellent students whose actual grades were within the top 25% answered that their grades would be in the bottom.
It's like our proverb, 'The more ripe the rice, the lower the head'.
This trend was similarly observed not only in comprehension, but also in other experiments such as sports, games, and logic.
In this way,
'people with insufficient skills value themselves higher, and on the other hand, people with excellent skills lower themselves', which is called the 'Dunning-Kruger effect'.
It can be said that it is the result of academically proving the baseless confidence that we often use in our daily life, the so-called 'satisfaction'.
Democrats and 'satisfaction'... and Song Young-gil, CEO
I often think of this 'Dunning-Kruger effect' when entering and exiting Democrats in politics.
In short, I often think, 'Where does such baseless confidence come from?'
A typical example was the critically acclaimed real estate policy.
While constantly pouring out real estate policies, he also constantly spewed out a sense of 'satisfaction'.
This is a passage that comes to mind as Charles Darwin pointed out that 'ignorant people value themselves very highly'.
Something recently happened that brought back this 'Dunning-Kruger effect'.
It was the resignation of Cho Dong-yeon, the co-chairman of the standing election.
The co-permanent election chairman, who was recruited by the Democratic Party Presidential Candidate Election Countermeasures Committee as the 'No.
In the background, there was Cho's 'personal history of the past'.
Not only former Chairman Cho personally, but also the Democratic Party, ahead of the presidential election, suffered major internal injuries from the strategy of 'expanding the perimeter'.
Why did such a disappointing result occur?
After all, all problems lead to 'people'.
The responsibility for this situation also falls on CEO Song Young-gil, who was 'confident but ignorant'.
From recruitment to resignation, CEO Song was involved in the entire process.
The first person to recommend Cho Dong-yeon was the Democratic Party's lawmaker Lee Yong-bin, who was known as 'a close aide to Song Young-gil'. Rep. Lee is known to have gotten to know former Chairman Cho Dong-yeon, who works in the field while in the party's 'Aerospace Special Committee'. It is said that they got closer together because they had the same thing as 'the Military Academy'. I asked them for their opinions and recommended it to CEO Song Young-gil.”
The co-standing election chairperson is a key position among the core positions that lead the party's election strategy together with the party leader. Therefore, it is also called 'TWO TOP'.
I thought that the position of leading the front line in the presidential election must have undergone thorough verification. It was the same not only for our reporters, but also for lawmakers and members of the party. However, the reality was not so.
The 'seeds of tragedy' have already been sown at this time.
"I only confirmed that fact this morning."
There is an organization called the National Talent Committee under the direct control of candidate Lee Jae-myung in the Democratic Party's election committee. Rep. Baek Hye-ryun, a former prosecutor, is in charge of the general manager. The National Human Resources Committee also recruited four people as 'primary national talents': AI developer Kim Yun-gi, data expert Yun-i Kim, brain scientist Min-ryung Song, and artificial intelligence researcher Ye-rim Choi.
What this means is clear.
It is said that there is an 'official body to verify the talent' to be recruited in the Party's predecessors.
However, for some reason, former Chairman Cho Dong-yeon did not go through this official verification process.
It's not common sense.
Rep. Baek Hye-ryun appeared on the radio on CBS on the 2nd, when the controversy over Cho Dong-yeon's personal life arose, and replied, "I only confirmed that fact this morning. It seems like an objective fact-checking part."
Rep. Baek Hye-ryun added, "It is not a form of recruitment supervised by our talent recruitment committee, but a part of the party's election committee, where the recruitment of talent has already been promoted mainly by the party's representative."
He also reaffirmed, "The current situation is not under the jurisdiction of the talent recruitment committee."
If so, what kind of process did he go through to be recruited?
It is at this point that CEO Song Young-gil appears.
On the 30th of last month, CEO Song announced the news of the recruitment of Chairman Cho on SNS on the 30th of last month and introduced, "I made a decision. You will lead this election with me."
In short, CEO Song Young-gil was recruited through in-house interviews.
The verification process demonstrated by the ruling party, which has 169 seats, preparing for the next presidential election, is too weak and lax.
'Incompetent' if you didn't know... If I had known, I would have 'dismissed my duty'
Naturally, criticism of 'verification failure' is inevitable
.
One Democratic Party lawmaker directly criticized Song Young-gil, saying, "I had no idea about the recruitment of former Chairman Cho. Not only me, but most of the lawmakers would not have known. How can you choose a so-called 'two-top' like that?"
Another Democratic lawmaker also said, "The issue of being out of wedlock is still a controversial issue in our society. At least, it was necessary to thoroughly review how public opinion will move and how to respond according to it. pointed out.
Noh Woong-rae, a senior member of the party and the party think tank, president of the Institute for Democracy, also appeared on YTN radio and said this.
"It is a mistake or failure in personnel verification that occurred in the process of recruiting overheated talent. It is not possible to use a needle through the waist even in a hurry. must do."
If Song Young-gil did not know about the private life of former Chairman Cho Dong-yeon, he would be 'incompetent'.
If you know it, but have not gone through internal verification and public debate, you have 'abandoned your job'.
I was not prepared to simulate in advance how public opinion would react to Cho's private life and explain it to the public reasonably.
It is a point where we need to look back on ourselves, starting with whether or not he has faithfully performed his duties as the party leader, apart from judging the value of Cho's personal life.
Accidents go to the president, apologies to the candidates…
What made the problem worse was the 'poor response'. They did not respond 'on time' in terms of time and 'properly' in a way. After the announcement of the recruitment of former Chairman Cho, when the controversy over the out-of-married person arose through the so-called 'Jirashi' and YouTube's 'Garosero Research Institute', the Democratic Party made a skit to respond harshly as 'fake news'.
Rep. Ahn Min-seok appeared on YTN radio on the 1st and refuted, announcing legal action, saying, "I have confirmed that it is not true. The person who raised the problem will have to take responsibility." The fact that Rep. Min-seok Ahn confirmed, what was it?
The people who watch the counterattack clumsily without properly grasping the facts are only getting complicated.
When former Chairman Cho personally appeared in a KBS radio interview and admitted the truth, the lawmakers within the party fell into panic and chaos. The senior public affairs committee did not even give a specific answer, saying, "I don't know. I need to confirm."
When I asked Rep. Han Jung-jin for his opinion on this, he came up with a self-reflection that literally 'beats the bone'. "I honestly don't know how to respond to a reporter's question. At this point, it's hard to call it a normal political activity. It's a 'comedy'.
In the end, a 'message of apology' came out for this situation. However, the speaker who apologized was not Song Young-gil, but presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung.
Candidate Lee wrote on SNS, "The candidate himself will bear all the responsibilities," and "I'm sorry to Chairman Cho and his family."
Right now, between Candidate Jae-myung Lee and close members of the lawmakers, there was a voice of criticism towards CEO Song Young-gil
.
Voices such as "Is it normal for the president to make an accident and the candidate to apologize?" and "CEO Song must be held responsible for this situation in any way."
"Ignorance overestimates one's own abilities"
Confidence is not bad.
It enables new challenges and becomes the driving force for achievement.
Confidence is also needed to not be complacent with reality.
However, this only assumes that there are adequate grounds for that confidence.
Unfounded confidence, the so-called 'feeling of pain', only makes you and those around you tired and hard.
If there is evidence and justification, it is 'belief', but if there is no evidence or cause, it becomes 'obsession'.
Nelson Mandela, the first black president of South Africa and a civil rights activist.
During his 27 years in prison, he read many books about the culture and history of the South African-born white people who imprisoned him.
I learned their culture and language by watching their favorite rugby.
This was the decisive reason for the success of the nonviolent movement.
The conclusion of the aforementioned Dunning-Kruger experiment is summarized as follows.
1) Overestimating one's own abilities in ignorance.
2) An ignorant person does not even realize that he lacks ability.
3) An ignorant person does not properly evaluate the abilities of others.
Apart from judging the value of former Chairman Cho Dong-yeon's private life controversy, the Democratic Party and CEO Song Young-gil need to reflect on how many of the above items themselves.
Maybe all three items apply.
Thinking in advance about how the people will accept it, gathering the middle ground to explain it rationally in line with the common sense of the people, is a basic skill that a politician should have.
The people are putting a question mark on how much of this kind of knowledge President Song Young-gil, who has made his own personnel decisions without even going through the internal verification system, is equipped with such knowledge.
I would like to end this article with the advice of novelist Hoon Kim.
"The collective characteristic of Kkondae is that the listening function is paralyzed"
(Photo = Yonhap News)