A railroad connecting southwestern China and the capital of Laos in Southeast Asia, which is one of the main projects of China's Belt and Road Initiative, has opened.
It is expected that China will deepen its economic ties with Southeast Asia and become even more influential.
The railway connects Kunming in Yunnan Province, southwestern China, with Vientiane, the capital of neighboring Laos, for approximately 1000 kilometers.
After the construction work that has been going on since 2015, the ceremony was held on the 3rd, and President Xi Jinping of China and President Thongloun of Laos, who attended online, announced the opening of the railway.
Railroad is considered to be one of the main projects of China's "One Belt, One Road" giant economic zone concept, and there is also a plan to connect Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore in the future, and China will deepen its economic ties with Southeast Asia, further It is expected to increase its influence.
On the other hand, according to the World Bank, etc., 70% of the total project cost of about 420 km in Laos, 5.9 billion dollars, is borne by China, and the remaining 30% is borne by Laos, most of which. Is covered by borrowing from a government-affiliated financial institution in China.
Laos, a landlocked country, expects that the first long-distance railway will support economic development, but it may fall into the so-called "debt trap" where it cannot repay a large amount of debt and is forced to transfer interests. Has also been pointed out.
Rapidly deepening relations China's presence Some wary voices
ラオスは隣国の中国と、経済を中心に急速に関係を深めていて、JETRO＝日本貿易振興機構によりますと、中国との貿易総額は、2010年と2020年を比較すると3.5倍に増えています。
また、不動産や農業、鉱山開発などへの投資が相次いでいて、ラオス政府に届け出のあった中国からの直接投資の金額は、去年1年間で82億ドル、日本円でおよそ9300億円で、海外からの投資の7割以上を占めています。
ラオス国内には、中国に農作物を輸出する中国資本の農園も相次いでつくられています。
ラオスの首都ビエンチャンにあるバナナ農園では、300人以上のラオス人が中国に輸出するバナナを栽培しています。
新型コロナウイルスの感染拡大で、隣国タイなどへの出稼ぎができなくなったことをきっかけに、農村部から家族連れで移り住んで働く人も増えています。
妻とともに去年から、この農園で働く37歳の男性は「ふるさとにいても仕事はない。ここでの仕事は、そこまで大変ではないし、暮らしはよくなった」と話していました。
去年1年間の収入は日本円で30万円ほどで、日系の製造業で働く作業員の基本給と、ほぼ同じ水準だということです。
農園を経営する中国人の56歳の男性は「ラオスは中国から近く、質のよいバナナを育てるのにも適しているし、ラオス人もよく働いてくれる」と話していました。
また、ビエンチャンの中心部には、中国人が経営し、中国語の看板を掲げる店が数多く建ち並んでいるほか、一部の道路では、中国語の標識なども設置されています。
Some have warned of such a growing presence in China, and in February, a local newspaper said, "Laos is developing with foreign investment, but at construction sites and investment sites. There are things that are inappropriate, such as displaying a sign that does not consider the identity of Laos. It is time for Lao people to cherish their independence and sovereignty. " increase.
Laos's swelling debt Mostly borrowed from China
While the construction of infrastructure is progressing in Laos, there is growing concern about financial deterioration due to the swelling of public external debt, which is the government's debt.
According to the Central Bank of Laos, the balance of public external debt, which is the government's foreign debt, reached more than $ 10.6 billion at the end of last year.
It increased by 6.7% from the previous year, and the balance rose to 55% of GDP = gross domestic product.
The financial situation continues to deteriorate due to the spread of the new coronavirus infection where the funds required for infrastructure construction are increasing.
For this reason, there have been a series of moves last year among major rating agencies to lower the rating of government bonds issued by Laos, which indicates the creditworthiness of government bonds.
Of these, "Fitch Ratings" has been downgraded to "CCC", which is said to have considerable credit risk, and in Laos, foreign currency reserves for debt repayment are $ 1.3 billion. He said he was "faced with a tough debt situation", saying that $ 1.1 billion of debt would be due every year for the four years from 2021.
Most are borrowed from China, and private US research agencies also point out that there is so-called hidden debt from China that the Lao government has not announced.
Expert "Depending on China and getting stuck"
Norihiko Yamada, a researcher at the JETRO Asian Economic Research Institute, who is familiar with the current situation in Laos, said, "In Laos, a landlocked country, the issue was how to secure a distribution route to access the sea and reduce transportation costs. "It was a long-cherished wish," he said. "Since it will be easier to export agricultural products to China, the economic relationship will deepen. The railroad will make Laos more dependent on China than ever before, and it will be in a state where it cannot escape. I will go. "
On top of that, "Laos will have a problem how to balance economic development while relying on China's funds and relations with ASEAN countries. Japan will compete with China in terms of funds. It is difficult to go, but I think we can support the development of railway-related infrastructure so that Laos can make use of this railway. "
China's desire to capture Southeast Asian countries
China has positioned the railway connecting to Laos as a symbolic project of the "One Belt, One Road" giant economic zone initiative.
China is focusing on strengthening relations with Southeast Asian countries as the conflict with the United States continues, and in November, it upgraded its relations with the ASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
RCEP = Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which is deepening economic ties and is a framework for promoting free trade in the Asia-Pacific region in which China, ASEAN, and Japan participate, will come into effect in January.
China emphasizes the benefits of expanding exports from Southeast Asia to markets with a population of 1.4 billion.
There is also a plan to connect the railway between China and Laos to Malaysia and finally Singapore by connecting it with the railway that runs through Thailand under construction, and China is actively under the "One Belt, One Road" initiative. It is a posture to support construction.
By appealing that the opening of the railway will contribute to economic growth, there is a desire to incorporate each country, and first of all, as the same socialist country, it seems that the aim is to further deepen the relationship with Laos, which has strong ties.
On the other hand, regarding the railway concept involving China, in Malaysia, then Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad proceeded as originally planned, such as temporarily freezing the construction of a railway that runs through the east coast of the Malay Peninsula due to high costs. There are some cases that do not exist.
In addition, if Laos's finances deteriorate and the railway operation is not profitable, China will run the risk of not being able to recover the funds.
Last year, the Chinese government launched a new development model called "Twin Circulation" centered on the domestic economy, and attention is being paid to how the "One Belt, One Road" initiative will be promoted in the future.