Obama went through a difficult period after the passage of the welfare law
Biden did not win the support of the Americans despite his popular policies
Passing the Infrastructure Act did little to help the president.
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The infrastructure project sparked a long debate before it was passed.
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Over the past years, many Democrats have argued that there is a simple secret to electoral success: enact legislation popular with Americans.
President Joe Biden has tried to make that theory a reality, enacted a massive stimulus plan, an infrastructure bill, and made progress on the ambitious $2 trillion spending bill that the House recently passed.
But so far, popular politics have not made a popular president.
Biden's approval ratings plummet to the mid-1940s, even though nearly all of his legislation has majority support in the polls.
In contrast, voters, in every poll, seem to give Biden no credibility to his agenda;
They say he hasn't accomplished much, and they even say he hasn't helped them personally, even though he has sent direct stimulus payments to most families, even fathers.
And if there is any result, voters say it only made matters worse.
It is hard to understand the disconnect between the president's popular politics and his unpopularity.
Whatever it is, voters care about these issues;
They have demonstrated this by classifying into ideologically divided parties over the past two decades.
It is clear that presidents can be punished for pushing an unpopular agenda.
In this regard, we have to ask President Barack Obama about the period since the passage of the Affordable Care Act.
But if voters often punish a president for pushing unpopular policies, they rarely seem to reward a president for popular legislation.
Instead, voters seem to reward presidents for bringing peace and prosperity.
In short, normal life.
urgent issues
Today, Biden is not seen presiding over a long-promised return to normalcy.
Perhaps that will change in the coming months.
But Biden's policy agenda is not expected to do much to help his popularity rating, as long as Americans do not believe the agenda responds to the most pressing issues facing the country.
It is hard to think of recent examples of voters overcoming their skepticism of the president because of a popular policy platform.
It was relatively unproductive Democratic presidents like John F. Kennedy, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton - in his second term - who avoided midterm defeats over the past 80 years, and even Medicare and Medicaid did not help the Democrats in the 2010 elections. 1966 and 1968;
Because they were crushed.
The dominance of economics over American public opinion is one of those basic and seemingly obvious outcomes of political science that is still somewhat difficult to fully comprehend.
This is partly because it goes against the way that most voters, especially politically active voters, think.
Most people support their party in the worst economic times, and even the fastest economic growth will not convince them to support the other party's president.
One fact helps understand this pattern: Less reactive voters don't think about politics as much as the typical political activist, and the typical voter might not follow public policy closely at all.
For example, a voter may say that he "supports" or "ops" a political initiative when asked in a poll, but he may only have a loose sense of the details of public policy.
For some, a political project may be little more than an abstraction, an abstraction that sounds good, but remains fundamentally intangible, without deep meaning.
In a way, trying to persuade ordinary voters to support a party or candidate, with a particular political initiative, is a bit like trying to persuade someone to buy something they didn't actually ask for.
state of the economy
What are the voters asking for?
Well, they want a strong economy and jobs.
This is not what progressives might say in response to this question, but rather they say things like reduce income inequality, or tackle climate change.
But the state of the economy always takes first place in opinion polls.
They usually only take a back seat in the event of an unusual circumstance or crisis, such as a war or epidemic.
So far, Biden has not given voters exactly what they asked for.
Yes, economic growth has been strong and unemployment has fallen.
In most circumstances, these numbers will likely translate into a perception of a strong economy;
Perhaps it will be done in time.
But these are not entirely normal conditions.
The strong numbers contrast with the constant flow of reports on various economic challenges, from persistent shortages of workers and supply chain issues, to inflation and rising gas prices, and no one is under the impression that the economy is working as it should.
In a recent CNN poll, 58% of Americans said Biden did not pay enough attention to the nation's most important problems, including 72% who say the economy is the most important issue.
Not surprisingly, passing the Infrastructure Act did little to help the president.
His policies were approved by 43% on the day the bill was passed, according to Five Thirty Eight.
It's still at 43%, today.
A recent poll by Ashlon Insights, a Republican-leaning organization, showed that 72 percent of registered voters wanted Biden's top priority to be controlling inflation and fixing supply chain problems, compared with 21 percent who thought new spending on the economy should be a priority. Social services, health care and green energy.
More recently, Biden's presidency has been compared to that of Theodore Roosevelt and his New Deal.
But Biden's candidacy has been compared to an entirely different president: Warren Harding, whose "back to normal" campaign came in 1920, in the wake of the 1918 flu pandemic, labor unrest, World War I and the Red Scare.
In terms of politics, the New Deal and "return to normal" have nothing in common.
One was a massive expansion of government, while the other was about tax cuts.
While the policies were quite different, both sought to pull America out of the crisis and benefited from sustainable economic growth.
Politically, too, Roosevelt and Harding had one thing in common: they both won by landslide.
• Trying to persuade ordinary voters to support a party or candidate, with a particular political initiative, is a bit like trying to persuade someone to buy something they didn't actually ask for.
• So far, popular politics have not made a popular president. Biden's approval ratings plummet to the mid-1940s, even though nearly all of his legislation has majority support in the polls.
• If voters often punish a president for pushing unpopular policies, they rarely seem to reward a president for enacting popular legislation. Instead, voters seem to reward presidents for bringing peace and prosperity, in short, normality.
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