“Can Seok-Yeol Yoon win without Jong-In Kim?”, “Can Seok-Yeol Yoon win without Jun-Seok Lee?”
People's Power Candidate Yoon Seok-yeol has been faced with two questions a few months ago.
The so-called 'Kim Jong-in variable' was raised because of the personal inclinations of Candidate Seok-Yeol Yoon and former Chairman of the People's Power Emergency Response Committee Kim Jong-in.
It is known that the two have communicated frequently during the People's Power primary, but a People's Power official who knows both of them gave a mixed outlook.
"Stubborn counting, the grip (grip), two people with strong reckon can coexist in the presidential election"
was that.
On the 5th of last month, on the evening of the day that candidate Yoon was elected as the People's Power candidate, he met with former Vice Chairman Kim.
In addition, Candidate Yoon's side announced that the candidate's side would appoint Kim as the general election chairman, who is the 'one-top' of the election committee.
The prospect mixed with some concerns seemed to end with mere concern.
However, within a few days, the fear became a reality.
Although it was the former vice chairman Kim who actually demanded full power to operate the predecessor squad on the condition of a 'working environment', it seems that candidate Yoon did not consider the 'full power' itself.
"The predecessor is a consultative body"... Wasn't 'Kim Jong-in One Top' in the first place?
On the 27th of last month, Candidate Seok-Yeol Yoon, after seeing an exhibition of young artists' works of art, said in a meeting with reporters,
"The predecessor is to do it in a consultative body
.
"
He added,
"I don't think the word "one-top" or "two-top" itself fits with the democratic campaign method
. The idea of Candidate Yoon who wanted to serve Kim as the 'general election chairman', who was apparently a 'one-top', meant that there was no grant of authority as a 'one-top' in the first place.
About one month after Yoon was elected as the People's Power candidate. Although it was a convention effect, the poll's approval rating, which led Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung by double digits, has now changed to Baek Joong-se. This is a result of attention focused only on whether former Vice Chairman Kim Jong-in will join the election, rather than presenting his vision or policy as a presidential candidate. About a month of time was wasted, but the purpose of bringing Kim Jong-un to the squadron was not achieved. In response, a lawmaker from the People's Power
said, "
There has never been such a case in which such attention has been focused on the composition
of the election committee
,
"
and evaluates it as
"the result of the candidate's lack of political power
."
As the gap in approval ratings between Candidate Seok-Yeol Yoon and Jae-Myung Lee narrows and the joining of former Vice Chairman Kim, who seemed to be going smoothly, has come to a standstill, the question from a few months ago is being asked again for Candidate Yoon.
“Can Yoon Seok-yeol win without Kim Jong-in?”
This question is based on the experience and strengths of former Vice Chairman Kim Jong-in's multiple elections.
In other words, this question is based on the theory of reality that it is difficult to find someone other than Kim Jong-in, who can compensate for Yoon's lack of experience and weaknesses.
Is Kim Jong-in necessary for Yoon Seok-yeol's 'overwhelming regime change'?
During the primary, Yun was seen as more to the right of the party's political orientation of the people's power. As Rep. Hong Jun-pyo was pushed back in the general public opinion poll, it must have been a strategic choice to capture the power of the people, but some critics from within the people's power said, "It looks like our Republican Party candidate." The 'Kim Jong-in variable' was raised at this point. Mid-way expansion is essential for 'overwhelming regime change', and he said that there is no one other than former Vice Chairman Kim Jong-un to play this role.
A person close to Kim Jong-un explains the strength of Kim Jong-un as follows.
“Ex-Chairman Kim understands the weaknesses of the camp and devises a mid-way expansion strategy well. His promise for economic democratization was representative, and he was involved in developing a strategy to include those who want a regime change or re-creation of the government but cannot vote for a specific party. Excellent."
However, it is known that immediately after the primary, when candidate Yoon showed a double-digit difference in approval rating compared to candidate Lee Jae-myung, the atmosphere that "we can win without Kim Jong-in" was dominant on the candidate's side.
There has also been a
story that
“the only one top candidate is the candidate, and if someone discusses the full power, the authority and style of Candidate Yoon will collapse.”
At a time when the smuggling between Candidate Yoon and former Vice Chairman Kim reached its peak, a story came out saying, "If you consider the unification with Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo of the People's Party, it might be better if there is no former Vice Chairman Kim, who is not on good terms with Candidate Ahn." also did
Is Kim Jong-in a sufficient or necessary condition for regime change?
However, as the approval rating fluctuates, a completely different outlook emerges from within the People's Power, not from Yoon's side.
"If Candidate Yoon's approval rating is reversed for Candidate Jae-myung Lee and the gap widens, then Candidate Yoon will give full power to former Vice Chairman Kim and eventually bring him to the General Election Committee
.
"
Past histories such as Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in support this prospect.
Those who take such a view explain the background of the dissonance between current Candidate Yoon and former Vice Chairman Kim as follows.
“Candidate Yoon, who has no political experience, initially relied on former Vice Chairman Kim as a political mentor, but as he gained confidence and support for his political career, he thought that it would be better not to have Kim, who could play the role of the king. ."
In the end, it is explained that the poll's approval rating for Candidate Yoon created the current discord, and that it will determine the future relationship between the two.
It is the 'approval rate determinism' that everything depends on the approval rating, but yesterday (1st) the results of an opinion poll that lagged behind Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung were announced for the first time since Yoon was elected as the People's Power presidential candidate.
It is said to be within the margin of error, but this is the first time in the last month or so.
"Ex-Chairman Kim Jong-in is a sufficient condition for regime change, not a necessary condition."
It is the story of a member of the People's Power.
It is good for former non-chairman Kim Jong-in to assume the lead in order to win the election, but the absence of former chairman Kim does not mean that he cannot win the election.
This opinion is stronger as the number of players among members of the People's Power increases.
Candidate Seok-Yeol Yoon said, "I will wait for an answer without setting a deadline."
It is a well-known fact that the approval rating of Candidate Seok-Yeol Yoon fell as Kim Jong-un's joining the predecessor team was delayed.
The people may have felt fatigue as the tug-of-war has been prolonged, and it may be the result of seeing Yun Seok-yeol without Kim Jong-in as uneasy regardless of the actual ability of Kim Jong-in.
However, what is clear is that if Candidate Yoon's approval rating is on the decline, the view of Kim Jong-un as a necessary condition for regime change will be strengthened.
This means that the ransom price of former Vice Chairman Kim may be higher, and that much, candidate Yoon Seok-yeol's 'serving Kim Jong-in' may become more difficult.
But what exactly is the reason why former Vice Chairman Kim Jong-in is hesitant to join the former squadron?
Many interpretations have focused primarily on whether to grant 'full power'.
'Plenipotentiary' is also a keyword in analyzes that the reason why former non-chairman Kim is drawing a line from participation in the election is that people who are said to be close associates of permanent election chairman Kim Byung-jun and candidate Yoon are in charge of the core of the election committee.
However, the analysis of people close to Kim Jong-un is slightly different.
Although it is ultimately expressed through people, it is said that former Vice Chairman Kim and Candidate Yoon Seok-yeol have different views in the election strategy.
"Ex-Chairman Kim Jong-in is a person who adds extreme efficiency. He wants the message to be delivered quickly by slimming the organization, but Candidate Seok-Yeol Yoon is focusing on integration."
(Ex-Chairman Kim Jong-in Aides A)
"Ex-Chairman Kim Jong-in takes very seriously that candidate Yoon Seok-yeol lost to Hong Jun-pyo in a general public opinion poll in the primary. It seems that they are trying to go with the strategy they had during the primary election.
(Ex-Chairman Kim Jong-in aides B)
Candidate Yoon Seok-yeol's side is in the position of waiting for Kim's response without setting a deadline.
There
is also a
saying, “I have done everything I can, and now
I have
no choice but to wait.”
It is said that whether or not Kim Jong-un joins the previous squadron depends on the decision of Kim Jong-un.
On the other hand, an official from
Kim's
side said,
"Whether or not former Chairman Kim joins the predecessor depends on the decision of Candidate Yun Seok-yeol
.
"
The idea is that it will be difficult for former Chairman Kim to join the ranks unless there is a personnel renewal in accordance with the election strategy change (appearingly, a change in the election strategy through human renewal).
This difference in strategy is also one of the factors that can increase Kim's ransom when he tries to join the former vice chairman.
'Lee Jun-seok variable' and predicted expression
If the 'Kim Jong-in variable' was expressed relatively recently, the 'Lee Jun-seok variable' has been raised for a long time. A surprise entry into the party, conflict over the rules of the contest, and conflict over whether to participate in volunteer work arose, and rumors of a conflict between Lee Jun-seok, leader of the People's Power Party and Candidate Yoon Seok-yeol, have been raised for a long time. From the side of the two people, there was a lot of accusation that they were playing the press aimed at each other. Whenever this happens, the question 'Can candidate Yoon Seok-yeol win the presidential election without Lee Jun-seok, who has strong support for 2030?'
Candidate Seok-Yeol Yoon dismissed the conflict theory itself. After meeting with Lee Jun-suk on the 6th of last month, when asked about the 'conflict theory', Candidate Yoon answered,
"I and Chairman Lee Jun-seok will run the election together at the party level, and I think all misunderstandings will be resolved by seeing what we do. "
he said. However, given the history of both sides, there were no politicians who believed Yun's words directly.
However, the prevailing opinion is that it is correct to view the conflict as a conflict between 'Yun Seok-yeol and Lee Jun-seok (side)' rather than 'a conflict between Yoon Seok-yeol and Lee Jun-seok'.
One People's Power lawmaker Jung Jin said, "Candidate Yoon and CEO Lee keep in touch with each other frequently and meet several times in private. say CEO Lee has been a 'hyena' This interpretation also coincides with the fact that the target who has been criticized by borrowing terms such as Yoon Seok-yeol himself, was not Yoon Seok-yeol himself, but a close aide.
'Heuk-gwan Yoon (a key person in charge of candidate Yoon Seok-yeol)' and 'too dangerous card'
Given that the conflict between Candidate Yoon and CEO Lee (the side) is not new, the question is why now is the time to be interested in President Lee's stealth. The prevailing interpretation is that these things may have had an impact because the most recent events were the controversy over the schedule of Candidate Seok-Yeol Yoon's visit to Chungcheong, the appointment of Su-Jeong Lee as the co-election chairperson of Kyonggi University, and the report citing the so-called 'Huk-Kwan Yoon', a 'key official of candidate Yoon Seok-Yeol'. .
On Tuesday, when Chairman Lee abruptly canceled all schedules, the People's Power personnel who contacted Chairman Lee estimated that the so-called 'Yun Hak-kwan' report was decisive. Certain media outlets have been reporting primary colors targeting Kim Jong-in, former chairman of the platoon, and Lee Jun-seok, citing 'Yun Hak-kwan'. If this analysis of the People's Power Personnel is correct, then the conflict between Chairman Lee and his aides over Candidate Yoon was the fuse of the stealth.
This candidate also virtually admitted this interpretation. Representative Lee, who had been in hiding for the 3rd day, met with reporters in Jeju today (2nd) and
said, "Personnel measures should be taken against those who made remarks to the effect that 'Lee Jun-seok is trying to eat up publicity expenses' in the presence of Candidate Yoon."
said. It means that the remarks of a person who is called an aide of Candidate Yoon was the decisive moment for the undercover.
Why does CEO Lee react sensitively to the remarks of a person called 'a close aide to Candidate Yoon'? Representative Lee's representative said,
"The reason President Lee has been critical of Yoon's aides is because they are leading the candidate to the wrong election strategy."
explain that
President Lee has been emphasizing the so-called generational siege theory as a strategy for this presidential election, but he said that Yoon's aides are critical of trying to lead the presidential election with the old election campaign method represented by 'millions of appointment letters'.
An official from People's Power explained,
"The difference in election strategy between Chairman Lee and Candidate Yoon has already been revealed during the presidential election process
."
In the position of CEO Lee, a representative 'Kim Jong-in recruitment advocate', the distrust that Yoon's aides are blocking the recruitment of Kim Jong-in is also a background to amplify the conflict.
However, there is considerable criticism within the power of the people, saying that Lee's choice is a 'too dangerous card'.
It is said that they are using an excessive 'climax tactic' at a time when the presidential election is not far away.
As the conflict prolongs, the person who suffers the most is the presidential candidate himself, and some argue that Yoon Seok-yeol should come forward to solve the situation himself, but Yoon does not seem to want to move right away.
Some within the party have evaluated that the current situation is similar to that of the then-President Kang Jae-seop, who refused to take office in the nomination conflict in 2008 and demanded the resignation of the secretary-general, who was a close aide to President-elect Lee Myung-bak.
At that time, the situation was ended when the secretary-general visited the party leader and apologized.